UFC Vegas 40: Ladd vs Dumont – 10.16.2021 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

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Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 40: Ladd vs Dumont. It is a nice little slate of fights but certainly not a card that has the highest profile athletes. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values control time and reversals. This new year, DraftKings has also added a quick win bonus for victories in the first minute as well as scoring for non-significant strikes. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value. Optimal GPP builds very rarely stack the same fight but it can be a viable strategy in cash games.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses if you want to bet on any of these picks.

Lastly, if you are in search of even more combat sports content be sure to visit RingwormMMA.com! This site is dedicated to providing MMA, boxing and gambling content to fight fans around the world.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 227-159-4 (Last Year 223-145-6)
  • Nick: 231-155-4 (Last Year 235-133-6)
  • GB: 218-168-4 (Last Year 216-152-6)

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 8:30 AM EST 10-16-2021

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:30pm EST

Ariane Carnelossi -140 (DK $8500, FD $16) vs Istela Nunes +115 (DK $7700, FD $14)

  • Anthony: Our card opens today with a women’s strawweight bout between Ariane Carnelossi and Istela Nunes. Carnelossi is a highly aggressive fighter. She has a negative striking differential but that is because her two UFC bouts thus far have been firefights. The power of Carnelossi can cause a lot of problems for opponents both at range and in the clinch. Nunes is getting a tough ask here in her promotional debut. There is a lot to like about Nunes such as her size and speed in comparison to Carnelossi. She has yet to rack up any impressive wins though and I don’t see her hitting Carnelossi hard enough to stop her forward momentum. It is a close fight but I do believe Carnelossi to be the rightful favorite. Ten of her professional wins have come by finish, including a stoppage of Liang Na in her last time out. She should get the job done here. Ariane Carnelossi by Round Three KO
  • Nick: This is a low-level matchup at strawweight and not a fight I’m particularly interested in. Carnelossi is coming off a solid win over Na Liang. She was rocked early in that spot and recovered nicely to ground Liang and finish via KO in the second round. She’s very well built for the weight class, carrying a lot of muscle with decent power and explosiveness. Her striking is far from refined and most of her success has come by overwhelming inferior opponents. Isleta Nunes is primarily a striker. She’s effective both at range and in the clinch, but there are a lot of questions surrounding her form here as she’s been out of action since 2018 due to a USADA suspension. Carnelossi is going to have a power and grappling advantage here, but there is really no denying Nunes is the more technically sound striker. This one could certainly go either way, but it feels like Carnelossi should eventually find a way to close distance and either ground this fight or connect on something damaging. This is a low confidence pick, but I’m siding with the favorite. Ariane Carnelossi by Decision
  • GB: Ariane Carnelossi by Decision

Danaa Batgerel -160 (DK $8600, FD $17) vs Brandon Davis +130 (DK $7600, FD $12)

  • Anthony: Next up is a bantamweight bout between Danaa Batgerel and Brandon Davis. This is the start of Davis’ second UFC stint after being cut from the promotion in 2019. Since then he has accrued four solid wins and looks to be in excellent shape for this weight class. Davis has shared the cage with some of the world’s best featherweights, so I am not too concerned about a matchup like this. Batgerel is a very powerful striker for this division. His knockouts against Guido Cannetti and Kevin Natividad were both finished by a beautiful left hook. While I appreciate those clean strikes, it must be noted that neither of those opponents have great chins. I think Davis is the type of fighter that can eat most of what Batgerel throws while continuing to pressure forward with his own high-volume strikes. It is a very close fight and one of the more fun bouts on the card. I expect it to be standing for the full fifteen minutes unless either fighter finds a finish. My pick here is Davis as he has the frame and style to cause a lot of problems for Batgerel. I trust him to fight for my dollar and work hard to out volume an opponent who is hunting for counter strikes. Brandon Davis by Decision
  • Nick: We have a really fun matchup here between two aggressive bantamweights. Danaa Batgerel is an extremely powerful and technical striker. We haven’t really seen him tested against a high level of competition, but he is coming off a nice KO win over Kevin Natividad. Brandon Davis was cut from the UFC following consecutive losses in 2019, but he makes his return here having fought for Gulf Coast MMA back in August. Many felt Davis shouldn’t have been released, as his last two UFC losses came via split decision to tough competition in Kyung Ho Kang and Giga Chikadze. He’s extremely aggressive, well-rounded and he’s not afraid to eat shots to throw them. This is a close fight and a tough one to call with confidence, but I like Davis’ chances as the underdog. Davis should have a reach advantage here. He’s shown solid durability which should be enough for him to withstand Batgerel’s strength. Batgerel is live for the KO here, but Davis has shown an excellent chin. This one could go either way, but I prefer the value on the underdog. Brandon Davis by Decision
  • GB: Danaa Batgerel by Round Three KO

Lupita Godinez -230 (DK $9000, FD $19) vs Luana Carolina +185 (DK $7200, FD $12)

  • Anthony: After earning a win at strawweight just one week ago, Lupita Godinez steps up on short notice here for a fight against Luana Carolina at flyweight. Godinez wiped the floor with debutant Silvana Gomez Juarez in that bout. She looked incredible and now makes the shortest turnaround in UFC history. Godinez is well versed everywhere but the grappling heavy gameplan she just implemented should work wonders again here. Carolina has very suspect wrestling and grappling. Godinez will be the much smaller fighter moving up from the 115-pound limit she competed at last week. She was under 122 pounds at weigh-ins. Despite the size difference I think she still lands takedowns on Carolina, just holding her down may be a struggle. It is probably a more competitive fight on the feet but I still lean the way of Godinez to get the job done. At these odds I unfortunately won’t be touching either side. Lupita Godinez by Decision
  • Nick: Lupita Godinez will be looking to make history here, as she’s coming off a win just one week ago. She absolutely dominated Silvana Gomez Juarez in that spot, overwhelming her and getting the submission victory in the first round. Godinez is primarily a striker. She does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents and her technical ability is impressive for someone in only their third UFC matchup. Carolina should certainly offer more resistance here, but I still expect she’s going to be outmatched. If she can keep this fight at striking range I could see her having some success, but it seems far more likely that Godinez should be able to overwhelm her here. Carolina does her best work striking at range, but Godinez should have more than enough durability to close the distance. Lupita Godinez by Decision
  • GB: Lupita Godinez by Round One Submission

Ramazan Emeev -375 (DK $9100, FD $22) vs Danny Roberts +285 (DK $7100, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Next up is a welterweight bout between Ramazan Emeev and Danny Roberts. I am not surprised to see the odds so lopsided for this one. Emeev has done the M-1 promotion proud going 5-1 since entering the UFC. His only loss was a close fight against Anthony Rocco Martin. All those bouts went to a decision as Emeev implements that classic Russian wrestling to control his opponents. He will take sloppy shots on occasion but has yet to really be punished for doing so. Roberts is a striker and I really do not see him posing much of a threat to Emeev here. The shorter and stronger man should have no problem taking this fight to the mat. Roberts defends just 53 percent of opponent takedowns and thus I expect him to be grounded for a large portion of this one. Roberts’ has a nice win over Oliver Enkamp but his other victories are against fighters much less skilled than Emeev. I see the Russian dominating this fight and winning by either decision or late finish. He has yet to really exceed value for DFS but I think he flirts with 100 points on DraftKings today. Ramazan Emeev by Decision
  • Nick: Emeev is a pressure grappler, he does a good job maintaining dominant position over a wide range of opponents. He has excellent takedown ability via both sweeps and more traditional single-leg entries. He’s not the most exciting fighter to watch, but he has a very high Fight IQ and leans on his strengths to consistently add wins to his resume. Emeev’s takedown ability and his chain wrestling makes him an enticing DFS play. I expect him to fight a smart reserved fight and grind out the decision as a favorite here against an opponent in Danny Roberts who hasn’t fought since November of 2019. Robert a decent striker with solid footwork, but his chin is extremely suspect as three of his five professional losses have come via KO. He has underrated offensive grappling ability with decent BJJ, but he’s likely going to be outmuscled here by a powerful wrestler like Emeev. Ramazan Emeev by Decision
  • GB: Danny Roberts by Decision

Bruno Silva -160 (DK $8300, FD $18) vs Andrew Sanchez +130 (DK $7900, FD $13)

  • Anthony: The prelims close at middleweight as Bruno Silva takes on Andrew Sanchez. Silva had been an absolute wrecking ball prior to signing to the UFC. Unfortunately, he failed a drug test and was slapped with a two-year suspension prior to his first fight with the promotion. That scared me off him when he faced Wellington Turman in June, but he ended up winning by early knockout in that fight just as he had in many prior. I am not yet convinced he can win without PEDs and do not take much stock from that KO as Andrew Sanchez finished Turman in a similar way just prior. Sanchez has been a bit of an enigma lately as his old wrestling style has given way to a far more strike-oriented approach. He simply cannot stand and trade with Silva in this fight so I am fully expecting we see the wrestling shoes pulled out here. Silva likes to pressure forward and throw very heavy hands. If Sanchez does not shoot on his own in this bout I imagine he winds up doing so defensively at some point. He should be able to ground Silva and take advantage of that grappling edge to get his hand raised. If it is a technical striking match I like his chances as well, but Silva certainly poses a threat on the feet that cannot be underestimated. At these odds, give me the underdog. Andrew Sanchez by Decision
  • Nick: Andrew Sanchez’s greatest strength is certainly his grappling ability, but he’s been falling in love with his striking lately. He has taken on a fun and entertaining karate style and he’s had some success peppering his opponents at range. However, he’s still showing holes in his game defensively. Bruno Silva carries massive power in his strikes with seventeen of his twenty professional victories coming by way of KO. He’s a decent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he doesn’t really have the cardio to exchange in aggressive grappling exchanges. This is a good fight to target for DFS, but also one of the closer fights on the card to call. If Sanchez leans on a wrestling heavy approach he’ll be live for the upset, but I expect he stands a bit more than he should here. Bruno Silva by Round One KO
  • GB: Bruno Silva by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Ludovit Klein -400 (DK $9200, FD $23) vs Nate Landwehr +300 (DK $7000, FD $8)

  • Anthony: This should be an exciting featherweight fight between Ludovit Klein and Nate Landwehr. Klein is an excellent striker and I think he has a lot of upside moving forward in this division. He is just 26 years old but already has 20 professional fights under his belt. His last matchup was a somewhat controversial loss to Mike Trizano. The first two rounds were close but I believe them to pretty clearly belong to Klein. He has the opportunity to bounce back in a big way here against the skidding Landwehr. It is not uncommon for M-1 fighters to struggle in the UFC and that has unfortunately been the case for Landwehr. He is an aggressive fighter who always presses forward but that is simply not enough to win at this high a level. Klein is much more technical on the feet and I see him landing clean shots on Landwehr whenever he decides to attack here. His signature move is the head kick and Landwehr is a fighter who lacks defensive awareness. He was finished by a first round knee in his previous two losses and I see him getting caught by something big again today. Ludovit Klein by Round One KO
  • Nick: Nate Landwehr is a brawler, but he’s fairly well-rounded. He likes to fight on the feet, but he has a solid wrestling base and his overall athleticism allows him to escape tough positions against relatively advanced grapplers. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Julian Erosa. He almost KO’d Erosa early in that spot, but his chin didn’t quite hold up and Erosa found an opening for a knee and a finish. Klein is extremely advanced for a 26-year old. He has decent grappling, but the precision and power behind his strikes is something to behold. He does a good job using feints to court his opponent’s into powerful shots. He’s coming off a controversial decision loss to Mike Trizano, but he’s still well-regarded as a prospect to watch at 145. Prior to his recent loss, Klein was coming off four-straight knockout victories, including a massive KO in his debut over City Kickboxing’s Shane Young. I believe Landwehr is tougher than he showed his last time out, but Klein’s striking is simply on another level. The line is likely too wide and Landwehr is far from a pushover. Still, Klein is the pick here. Ludovit Klein by Round Two KO
  • GB: Ludovit Klein by Round One KO

Manon Fiorot -300 (DK $8900, FD $20) vs Mayra Bueno Silva +235 (DK $7300, FD $9)

  • Anthony: Next we have a women’s flyweight bout between Manon Fiorot and Mayra Bueno Silva. This fight was originally set for UFC 266 but it was rescheduled due to coronavirus protocols. Fiorot has dominated her two UFC fights thus far, securing victories by knockout in both appearances this year. She has excellent striking in general but her traditional boxing is lightning fast and she has enough power to overwhelm most any opponent on the feet. Through her first two fights in the promotion she is averaging 8 significant strikes per minute. We also see her utilize kicks well from a karate stance at range. As with strikers and French fighters in general, defending the takedown will be her only concern here. Although Bueno Silva is a grappling threat she has yet to secure a takedown in the UFC. She often fishes for submissions from guard and I do not expect Fiorot to ever allow this fight to hit the mat. Fiorot is a BJJ brown belt so I trust to escape any compromising positions she may find herself in. She is my most confident pick on this card. I bet her heavy at -200 early this week and will be loading up in my DFS builds. Manon Fiorot by Round Two KO
  • Nick: We have what should be an exciting match-up here between two flyweights that like to stand and swing. Fiorot is primarily a striker. She mixes in kicks well to set up her punches. She can still show power even as she backs away from her opponents and while she’d prefer to stand and trade, her grappling is more than sufficient as a decorated judoka. Bueno Silva is a brawler. She’s decent on the feet, but she also carries sneaky offensive grappling ability as a BJJ blackbelt. Fiorot should have a massive advantage on the feet here, similar to what we saw from her in her UFC debut win against Victoria Leonardo and her recent KO victory over Tabatha Ricci. She has an excellent gas tank as she already has multiple five round wins under her belt. This does represent a step up in competition for Fiorot, but I expect she’ll pass the test. Manon Fiorot by Decision
  • GB: Manon Fiorot by Round Two KO

Jim Miller -250 (DK $8700, FD $18) vs Erick Gonzalez +200 (DK $7500, FD $11)

  • Anthony: The featured bout will be a fight at lightweight between Erick Gonzalez and the veteran Jim Miller. Fans of fighting are fans of Jim Miller. The veteran will take part in his 38th UFC bout today, the most appearances in company history. Not only does Miller have the most fights in UFC history but the most sub attempts as well. He has always had a well-rounded skillset but Miller is at his best when he is taking down and grappling opponents. His last two fights were against tough offensive wrestlers that ended up getting the better of him, but the newcomer Gonzalez is primarily a striker. It is tough to trust a debuting fighter against somebody who has been locked in the octagon so many times already. The wins for Gonzalez in Combate are not the most impressive, but his losses have primarily come against UFC caliber competition. I think Gonzalez has a good shot at winning this fight if he can survive the first round. Miller has been selling out for early wins lately and Gonzalez could very well pick apart the 38-year-old if we see a round two or three. I like the under in this fight more than any one side in particular. Ultimately my pick is Miller to get the win, but I am not comfortable betting him until I see this losing streak snapped. Jim Miller by Round One Submission
  • Nick: Erick Gonzalez will be making his UFC debut here. He’s a powerful striker coming off three consecutive victories, but we really haven’t seen him tested against a high level of competition. Jim Miller is one of the more accomplished veterans on the UFC roster. He’s a decent striker, but he’s found most of his success on the mat. He has excellent BJJ and eighteen of his thirty-two professional wins have come via submission. Miller’s clearest path to victory here is to put Gonzalez on his back and try to score a quick finish. His cardio has depleted over the years and he recently recovered from COVID. He should be able to hang with Gonzalez on the feet, but there’s nothing about Gonzalez’s game that suggests he’ll be able to keep this one standing. Two of Gonzalez’s five professional losses have come via submission. Crazy things happen in MMA, but I expect Miller to outclass Gonzalez considerably. Jim Miller by Round One Submission
  • GB: Jim Miller by Round Two Submission

Carlos Felipe -110 (DK $8000, FD $16) vs Andrei Arlovski -110 (DK $8200, FD $15)

  • Anthony: The co-main event is a heavyweight bout between Carlos Felipe and Andrei Arlovski. I have been betting against Felipe since his UFC debut. His past two victories very much tilted me as he was awarded split decision wins despite getting out struck in both fights. Watching Felipe celebrate like a gangster after being gifted these close decisions has gotten old. Arlovski has mostly won by decision lately himself but against much better competition. I believe the veteran of 53 fights poses a lot of problems for Felipe. Arlovski was beat by a top 15 heavyweight in six of his previous seven losses. He has stood across the octagon from far more proven finishers and will not be intimidated by the 26-year-old here. It will most likely be a fight that takes place on the feet and I imagine Arlovski is the more technical striker of the two. Arlovski is also the bigger fighter with a true heavyweight frame. He won’t be pushed around by Felipe and I see him landing with the higher volume and accuracy. It may end up being another close decision, but Arlovski should do enough to get a win. Andrei Arlovski by Decision
  • Nick: Arlovski is a shell of who he was when he reigned as UFC Heavyweight Champion back in 2005. He’s lost a lot of speed and power over the years, but he still has solid head movement and he generally does a good job circling away from his opponents and counter striking. He’s extended his career mostly leaning on his excellent fight IQ. He does an excellent job staying out of his opponents range and he does a good job finding openings to put damage on the back half of this division. He’s coming off a solid and convincing win over Chase Sherman. Sherman looked good early, but Arlovski did a good job evading big strikes and ultimately took over as the fight wore on. Felipe is a pure boxer who usually does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents. He hasn’t really shown KO power at this level, but he continuously pushes a pace and his cardio is surprisingly solid for a fighter with his wide and stocky frame. Most of Felipe’s wins have come via controversial decision. Against a point fighter like Arlovski I’m a bit confused as to why these odds are par. I don’t love either side for DFS, but I am siding with the veteran. Andrei Arlovski by Decision
  • GB: Carlos Felipe by Decision

Aspen Ladd -130 (DK $8400, FD $21) vs Norma Dumont +110 (DK $7800, FD $17)

  • Anthony: Our main event will be a women’s featherweight matchup between Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont. It is an abysmal headliner, but Ladd is taking this fight on short notice after Holly Holm was forced to withdraw. Ladd had a bout with Macy Chiasson fall out earlier this month after missing the bantamweight limit so this move to 145 pounds makes a lot of sense. She is a finisher who can generate a lot of power but I do not know how well it will translate to this weight class. Dumont is clearly the larger women and more suitable contender at featherweight. I can see Ladd implementing her gameplan well early, grappling Dumont and looking for a finish with strikes from top position. However, I have some concerns regarding her gas tank up weight and durability compared to Dumont. This could really be a fun back and forth fight as Dumont likely looks fresher in the latter three rounds. Ladd had mentioned to media that she had no idea this was a five round main event when she accepted the short notice opportunity. Many fight fans will of switched on the Bellator broadcast by this point but for those still watching I expect Dumont to secure the win. I am expecting her to piece up Ladd here as she starts to fade. Norma Dumont by Round Four KO
  • Nick: Aspen Ladd is taking this fight on short notice as Holly Holm was forced to pull out due to injury. Ladd will be moving up a weight class here after struggling to make weight at 135. She has found most of her success grappling and controlling position against smaller opponents, but she may not have that advantage now that she’s fighting at featherweight. Norma Dumont is coming off an impressive upset win over former title challenger Felicia Spencer. Dumont is an effective striker with solid takedown defense. She does a good job controlling the center of the octagon and has continued to show improvements in her striking. Both of these women land around 5 significant strikes per minute, but Dumont boasts a 67 percent striking defense – while Ladd sits at a mediocre 47%. Both of these girls will put out a lot of volume, but I expect Dumont to take far less damage. Another major key to this match-up is that Dumont has never been taken down in the UFC. Ladd won’t have the same grappling advantage she normally does, so I’m siding with the underdog in this one. Norma Dumont by Round Four KO
  • GB: Norma Dumont by Round Three KO

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice