UFC Vegas 30: Gane vs Volkov – 6.26.2021 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

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Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 30: Gane vs Volkov. The final UFC card of June is stacked from top to bottom with excellent fights this afternoon. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values control time and reversals. This new year, DraftKings has also added a quick win bonus for victories in the first minute as well as scoring for non-significant strikes. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value. Optimal GPP builds very rarely stack the same fight but it can be a viable strategy in cash games.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses if you want to bet on any of these picks!

Current Record

  • Anthony: 140-100-2 (Last Year 223-145-6)
  • Nick: 139-101-2 (Last Year 235-133-6)
  • GB: 131-109-2 (Last Year 216-152-6)

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 9:45 AM EST 6-26-2021

Preliminary Card- Starts 1:00pm EST

Damir Hadzovic -150 (DK $8500, FD $17) vs Yancy Medeiros +125 (DK $7700, FD $13)

  • Anthony: We open the card with a lightweight bout between Yancy Medeiros and Damir Hadzovic. This fight was originally scheduled for several weeks ago, but Hadzovic pulled out at the last minute due to health issues. It is certainly an interesting spot for both fighters but the big question I have entering is the ability of Medeiros. He transitioned from Strikeforce to the UFC more than a decade ago but his resume lacks any real quality wins over high level competition. He has dropped three bouts in a row and has not had his hand raised since the end of 2017. The performances out of Hadzovic have not really been any more impressive, but he is at least taking steps up in competition as he tries to make a name for himself. He looks far superior physically and should have the advantage in this fight while things stay standing. I think his power poses problems for Medeiros here and we see a win for The Bosnian Bomber. Such a prolonged fight camp could cause issues for either fighter, but if this plays out as I expect it Hadzovic should get his hand raised. Damir Hadzovic by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Medeiros is tough and well-rounded, but he’s coming off three consecutive losses. He fell to tough competition; Donald Cerrone, Gregor Gillespie, and Lando Vannata. Still, it’s difficult to trust him fully here as we haven’t seen him win a fight since 2017. Hadzovic is going to have a power advantage here, but it’s likely going to be difficult for him to close the distance on a high-volume striker like Medeiros. Medeiros will have a six-inch reach advantage here, so he should be able to use his range to keep Hadzovic on the defensive. If this fight hits the mat, Medeiros is likely to have the advantage as a BJJ blackbelt. Four of his fifteen professional wins have come via submission. I expect Hadzovic to be more than content to stay on the feet as much as possible here, where I give Medeiros the slight advantage as this fight wears on. Given Medeiros’ inactivity I wouldn’t invest heavily here. However I expect he outclasses Hadzovic no matter where this fight goes. Yancy Medeiros by Decision
  • GB: Yancy Medeiros by Round Two KO

Charles Rosa -170 (DK $8600, FD $18) vs Justin Jaynes +140 (DK $7600, FD $12)

  • Anthony: Next up is a bout at featherweight between Charles Rosa and Justin Jaynes. We saw Jaynes punch his ticket to the UFC with a massive knockout of Frank Camacho as a +230 underdog, but since then Jaynes has been finished three times. The short notice callup may of resulted in Jaynes biting off more than he can chew as he now looks outclassed by other UFC opponents. Camacho has not appeared in the cage since then. Rosa is a talented grappler that should have no problem controlling Jaynes when things hit the mat. On the feet Jaynes is certainly live for an early knockout, but Rosa does a good job staying at the end of his opponent’s strikes. I see him fighting a tactical battle on the feet and eventually finishing Jaynes in a grappling exchange. Jaynes solely has punching power to rely on and that simply is not enough to stack wins in this promotion. Charles Rosa by Round Three Submission
  • Nick: Jaynes is fairly new to the UFC, but he’s been around the sport for years. He’s a coach at Xtreme Couture with over two hours of professional cage time. In spite of his solid experience, he hasn’t had much success of late and there’s a good chance he’s fighting for his job here. In all of his recent losses (Gabriel Benitez, Gavin Tucker, and Devonte Smith) we’ve seen Jaynes come out strong and then quickly start to fade. His greatest weakness is definitely his conditioning. He’s a powerful striker, but he telegraphs most of his shots. He’s decent on the mat as well, but I expect he’s outclassed there in this match-up against a BJJ blackbelt in Rosa. Charles Rosa is coming off an ugly decision loss to Darrick Minner. Minner used his own grappling to neutralize Rosa in that spot, but I don’t see Jaynes realizing that same success in this matchup. Rosa fights very light-footed out of a karate style stance. He seems to finally have his timing down, and against a mediocre striker like Jaynes, I expect him to find success as long as he avoids Jaynes’ power. Jaynes bet $25,000 on himself for this match-up. I admire his confidence and I’ll have some shares as a hedge in DFS. However, Rosa certainly seems to be the right side in this one. Charles Rosa by Round Three Submission
  • GB: Charles Rosa by Round Three Submission

Julia Avila -360 (DK $9300, FD $23) vs Julija Stoliarenko +270 (DK $6900, FD $8)

  • Anthony: The only women’s fight this week takes place at bantamweight between Julia Avila and Julija Stoliarenko. Avila is a very talented mixed martial artist with a wide arsenal of skills. Her standup is exceptional and we often see her overwhelming opponents with high output. While I think Stoliarenko is capable of absorbing most of this damage on the feet, I seriously doubt she returns any fire that can stun or slow down Avila. Her only opportunity in this fight would be securing something in the grappling exchanges. Avila should fight a smart gameplan and dominate here. She was unceremoniously kicked out of her longtime gym between fights but has since had several training sessions with James Krause at Glory MMA. I expect we see a refined version of her in the cage this afternoon. Julia Avila by Decision
  • Nick: Stoliarenko is a live dog here. She is an armbar specialist with good enough BJJ to score her favorite submission from a variety of positions. There are flaws in Avila’s game, but it’s tough to expect her not to game plan around Stoliarenko’s only real path to victory. When this fight is standing, I expect Avila to be the much more active and effective striker. Avila is fairly new to the division, but she’s already shown strong ability in the clinch. She pushes a serious pace, and she has true finishing ability, with five of her eight professional wins coming inside the distance. I will say that the line is likely too wide on this one. Stoliarenko looked better on the scales than anyone really expected. Regardless, Avila should get it done here. Julia Avila by Decision
  • GB: Julia Avila by Decision

Marcin Prachnio -210 (DK $9000, FD $19) vs Ike Villanueva +170 (DK $7200, FD $11)

  • Anthony: Two low-level light heavyweights do battle here as Marcin Prachnio takes on Ike Villanueva. One of these fighter’s will secure their second consecutive UFC win here today while the loser could be in some hot water with the promotion. Villanueva is coming off a knockout win of Vinicius Moreira where an overhand right crumpled the Brazilian. I would say that victory impressed me, but Moreira has now been finished in all four of his UFC bouts. Villanueva got to pick his shots against a fighter less technical than him, but now he will likely be on the back foot a lot again today. Prachnio has decent volume and pressure in this division. He has a size advantage to utilize here and is by far the superior athlete when compared to Villanueva. To win this bout Villanueva will need to land something heavy on Prachnio and I just find that hard to imagine. Not only is Prachnio mobile for a light heavyweight, but also naturally far faster than his 37-year-old opponent. I will have exposure to both sides of this one when building my DFS lineups but think Prachnio is going to get his hand raised when all is said and done. Marcin Prachnio by Round Two KO
  • Nick: This is an ugly match-up between two of the worst light heavyweight fighters on the roster. Each is coming off a win, but nobody really expects either of these guys to ever get close to the Top 15. Prachnio is a decent striker at range, but he leaves himself open to counters. He doesn’t really have the technical prowess to stay out of the way of power, but he is coming off a solid Win as a +290 Underdog over Khalil Rountree. The biggest flaw in his game is definitely his chin, but he showed decent durability in that spot in spite of Rountree’s unwillingness to throw. Villanueva has knockout power, but his striking still seems underdeveloped. If he doesn’t land that big shot early, he tends to fall away from technicality which usually ends in disaster. He does have enough strength to win via KO in this spot, but he’ll have to be careful not to run through his gas tank too quickly. I’m not all that inspired by either of these guys and I’ll have shares of both for DFS, but I’m siding with the more diverse abilities of the favorite. Marcin Prachnio by Decision
  • GB: Marcin Prachnio by Round Three KO

Warlley Alves -240 (DK $9200, FD $22) vs Jeremiah Wells +190 (DK $7000, FD $9)

  • Anthony: Next is a welterweight fight between Warlley Alves and Jeremiah Wells. This is the UFC debut for Wells who steps in on short notice for this opportunity. From what I have seen out of him he is very well rounded and I am a fan of the Renzo Gracie Philly gym he represents. It is just going to be difficult for Wells to find much success anywhere in this fight. Alves is a serviceable grappler but on the feet he is lethal. A few consecutive kicks to the body were enough to finish Mounir Lazzez in Alves’ most recent win. He poses a very tall task for a promotional newcomer, and a fighter with only eleven professional fights to his name. I believe that Alves cracks Wells with something strong here in order to end this fight early. The only anchor weighing down Alves’ professional career is his gas tank, but that likely won’t be a factor here against a more inexperienced fighter that has not felt power like this before. Warlley Alves by Round One KO
  • Nick: Alves is a well-rounded fighter, but his career is likely on the decline. He’s a strong grappler with effective BJJ, but his gas tank is also a major question mark any time we see him in the cage. In spite of his strong grappling credentials, at this point in his career he seems most content to stand and trade on the feet – mostly as a means to conserve energy. He’s coming off a massive upset over Mounir Lazezz as a +200 underdog, a fight in which he Won via KO well before his cardio started to wane. As impressive as that performance was, it didn’t really resolve any of the concerns we have around Alves’ gas tank. He’s the rightful favorite in this spot, but it would be to his best interest to finish things as quickly as possible. Wells will be making his UFC debut here on short notice, having not fought since 2019. Luckily for Alves, Wells is another fighter that likes to come out aggressive and try to end things quickly. This should play right in Alves strengths, while also protecting him from his’ weaknesses. Wells is a fairly live underdog here as there many question marks around Alves at this point in his career, but I’m still confidently siding with the favorite. I expect him to find a finish here well before he starts to tire. Warlley Alves by Round One KO
  • GB: Warlley Alves by Round One KO

Shavkat Rakhmonov -350 (DK $9100, FD $22) vs Michael Prazeres +265 (DK $7100, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Another welterweight bout follows as Shavkat Rakhmonov will face Michael Prazeres. The undefeated Rakhmonov is a prospect that I will be watching very closely going forward. He dominated Alex Oliveira in his last time out, winning by first round submission in his UFC debut. It is sometimes difficult to gauge the talent of fighters previously in the M-1 promotion but Rakhmonov has all the tools needed to thrive at this level. He is a very large welterweight which is going to be prevalent in this fight for sure, boasting a ten-inch reach advantage. He has great striking, putting together longer combinations and landing power on opponents both early and often. Against Prazeres, striking at range will certainly be the gameplan. He should have no problem standing and trading in this bout, but Prazares does carry a lot of power himself in that stockier frame. If he were to eat a few shots, Rakhmonov could always rely on his combat sambo background and take this to the mat as needed. I fully expect Rakhmonov to win here and will be backing the fighter from Kazakhstan in what should be another dominant performance. Shavkat Rakhmonov by Decision
  • Nick: Rakhmonov comes into this fight undefeated. The 25-year-old Sambo specialist already has notable victories over Da Un Jung and Cowboy Oliviera. He has an impressive arsenal of submissions in his pocket and his striking looks a lot more developed than you’d normally see out of a guy so new to the UFC. He’s very tall, but he has a strong judo base, effective sweep takedowns and looks sharp in the scramble as well. We haven’t seen Prazeres fight since February of 2019. He is returning here off a USADA suspension, and he’s mostly known as an extremely strong and powerful pressure wrestler. Rakhmonov will need to be careful not to spend too much time on his back here. However, this certainly feels like his fight to lose. Rakhmonov showed a serious chin in his fight against Faridun Odilov. He was rocked temporarily, but he survived to come back and score a knockout of his own. I feel like Rakhmonov’s chin and superior cardio should be enough to keep him upright until Prazeres starts to fade. Shavkat Rakhmonov by Round Three Submission
  • GB: Shavkat Rakhmonov by Round Two KO

Kennedy Nzechukwu -130 (DK $8200, FD $16) vs Danilo Marques +110 (DK $8000, FD $15)

  • Anthony: The prelims close with a light heavyweight bout between Danilo Marques and Kennedy Nzechukwu. The March win over Carlos Ulberg really opened some eyes about Kennedy Nzechukwu, myself included. It was a very interesting bout as Nzechukwu displayed excellent striking defense and poise, ultimately coming alive in the second round and winning by knockout. With Sayif Saud in his corner he becomes one of the more intimidating fighters at this weight. He has all of the physical ability and technical skills one would want out of their star pupil. Marques is primarily a grappler and will be looking to ground Nzechukwu in this fight. His wins have been dominant but do not come over the most impressive names on the UFC roster. I feel like the 78 percent takedown defense for Nzechukwu holds up here. He and Coach Saud should have been drilling grappling all camp and I expect Nzechukwu to keep things standing in order to remove the threat of submissions. He is the more powerful striker than Marques and by fighting smart once again he can certainly get the job done. Both fighters garner massive appeal for DFS as they likely score high with a win. Kennedy Nzechukwu by Round Two KO
  • Nick: This is a clear striker versus grappler matchup at light heavyweight. Nzechukwu is coming off an impressive KO win over a hyped prospect in Carlos Ulberg. He ate a lot of clean shots early in that fight, but he weathered the storm from Ulberg and eventually dropped the accomplished kickboxer for the win as a +190 betting underdog. The biggest knock on Nzechukwu is his low output and tendency to stay excessively conservative as he waits for fights to come to him. Ulberg pushed a serious pace in that last bout, so we were able to see Nzechukwu at his best. Danilo Marques has been training out of an excellent camp in Kings MMA. He’s training with the likes of Beniel Dairiush, Kelvin Gastelum and Marvin Vettori. There were concerns when he returned from his long layoff that he was no longer taking the sport seriously. However, he has since come off two wins and this change in camp suggests he’s doing everything he can to succeed. Nzechukwu has a decent 78 percent takedown defense in the UFC, but Marques averages more than 4.8 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. He’s going to ground Nzechukwu eventually and when he does I see him pulling off the upset via submission. This is a close fight and Nzechukwu definitely has a path to victory if this fight stays standing. However, I prefer the value of the underdog. Danilo Marques by Round One Submission
  • GB: Danilo Marques by Round One Submission

Main Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Renato Moicano -250 (DK $9400, FD $20) vs Jai Herbert +200 (DK $6800, FD $9)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with an exciting lightweight bout between Renato Moicano and Jai Herbert. Herbert had two solid rounds logged against Francisco Trinaldo in his UFC debut, but was ultimately finished in the third round after a punch turned his lights out. He is a talented striker hailing from Cage Warriors and boasting eight professional wins by knockout. It is very unlikely we need the scorecards in this fight as Moicano is a potent finisher too. The jiu jitsu blackbelt will certainly have an opportunity to wrap up Herbert if things hit the mat. However, Moicano also has good standup. He throws a wide arsenal of strikes and does well scoring points on opponents no matter where the fight takes place. My play here would be the under. Both fighters are a bit hard to trust and laying this much juice with Moicano just feels like the wrong move. I do see him finishing Herbert but it would be no surprise at all if The Black Country Banger gets the job done. Each have very clear paths to victory. Renato Moicano by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Moicano is a BJJ blackbelt. He has outstanding offensive grappling and he does a good job scrambling into favorable positions against a wide-range of opponents. His greatest strengths are definitely shown on the mat, but he is comfortable striking both in the clinch and in open space. On the feet, Moicano should be able to hang enough to eventually get this fight where he needs to. Herbert is an interesting newcomer at the age of 32. He’s a former Cage Warriors Champion with decent BJJ, but he finished each of his last four fights via strikes on the feet. He’s best in the clinch with a strong Muy-Thai base, but he’s fairly competent no matter where a fight takes him. The line definitely feels too wide here as Moicano has shown holes in his game of late. He’s coming off back-to-back ugly losses but I do think he has enough ability to get back in the win column here. Herbert is live for an upset if he can keep this fight standing, but I expect the favorite eventually takes it where he wants. Renato Moicano by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Renato Moicano by Round Two Submission

Tim Means -130 (DK $8400, FD $16) vs Nicolas Dalby +110 (DK $7800, FD $14)

  • Anthony: One of the toughest fights to call on this card is a welterweight scrap between Tim Means and Nicolas Dalby. It is not often that I will side with Means as my pick, but this is a fight he certainly can take over. The past two wins have been very impressive for Means who was able to control both Laureano Staropoli and Mike Perry. He is a very well-rounded fighter and against Dalby today, he should find more openings than usual to make headway in the standup. Dalby’s forward pressure does not always work to his advantage and I see Means landing the most meaningful shots in this fight when Dalby closes the distance on him. It is expected that Dalby can outmuscle means on the mat, but we thought the same of Mike Perry and Means successfully defended four of five takedowns. I doubt he can finish Dalby, but believe he can once again impress the judges and get his hand raised here. Tim Means by Decision
  • Nick: Tim Means is a seasoned vet who does his best work striking in the clinch. He has extremely advanced technical ability, but he’s definitely not as fast as he was earlier in his career. Dalby is fairly well rounded, but most of his success has come through his strong wrestling base. While the fans are going to want a stand-up battle, Dalby would be wise to shoot for a takedown or two in this spot. He’s bigger and stronger than Means so he should be able to control him long enough to pull away on the scorecards. Means’ is decent off his back, but his defensive grappling has proven mostly ineffective against bigger and stronger opponents like Dalby. If Means can keep this standing it feels like his fight to lose, but I expect Dalby is strong enough to ground him. Nicolas Dalby by Decision
  • GB: Nicolas Dalby by Decision

Andre Fili -250 (DK $8900, FD $21) vs Daniel Pineda +200 (DK $7300, FD $10)

  • Anthony: At featherweight we will see Andre Fili step into the cage to face Daniel Pineda. I like the style that Pineda fights with but after his recent loss to Cub Swanson I am a bit worried to back him going forward. He is really a striker by trade and especially in this matchup Pineda will need to keep things standing. Fili is a credentialed wrestler with some excellent top pressure we often see him employ. He trains out of Team Alpha Male which is arguably the best gym for wrestlers under 170 pounds. While his last fight out was a loss to Bryce Mitchell, he once again holds the grappling advantage and I fully expect him to bring this fight to the mat where he believes it belongs. It should be a back and forth first round on the feet, but Fili should be able to grind out Pineda late in this fight if he is unable to get the finish first. The cardio for Pineda has been an issue before and against a tank like Fili I see him really struggling as the clock continues to tick down. The finish is likely for both fighters here but I think Fili likely takes whatever action necessary to get his hand raised today. Andre Fili by Decision
  • Nick: Fili is a well-rounded fighter. He throws powerful strikes, has solid wrestling and his athleticism allows him to stay competitive against a wide range of top-level opponents. He’s an effective striker that uses his length well, but he’s relied on his grappling and wrestling in most of his professional victories. Fili is a tough dude, but he sometimes over-exerts himself in exchanges and leaves himself open to counters. Pineda is coming off an ugly knockout loss to Cub Swanson back in December. He’s fairly well rounded, but he’s definitely in the twilight of his career. He’s always dangerous early, but as the fight wears on he tends to fall victim to his own lack of cardio. Pineda has never won a fight by decision so if he does pull off the upset here he’s very likely to score well for DFS. That being said, I expect Fili to win convincingly. After the first round, this really feels like his fight to lose. Andre Fili by Round Two KO
  • GB: Andre Fili by Round One KO

Raoni Barcelos -220 (DK $8800, FD $21) vs Timur Valiev +175 (DK $7400, FD $10)

  • Anthony: The featured bout is a bantamweight matchup between Raoni Barcelos and Timur Valiev. These are two high action fighters in the division who enter today’s scrap with a combined three losses. It is going to be a very technical war and I am as excited about this fight as any other on the card. Barcelos has been a machine, mowing through five UFC opponents already. He has incredibly diverse striking and a blackbelt in BJJ to rely on as well. Against somebody like Valiev I could see him striking at range and really picking his shots, similar to an O’Malley or Yanez in this division. While Valiev is also a highly touted prospect, I view him a little bit behind Barcelos in the development process. The cage time for Barcelos in the UFC included some very tough outs and I think it is fair to call him the further refined of the two. Valiev is no slouch though and it is shocking to see these odds as wide as they are. I will be glued to the television for this fight and expect it to be very back and forth, but ultimately Barcelos should be the one getting his hand raised once again. Raoni Barcelos by Decision
  • Nick: Barcelos is considered by many to be a future top contender in this division. He’s extremely well rounded as a blackbelt in BJJ who’s striking seems to improve every time we see him fight. Valiev is a gifted striker with advanced technical ability. He has a diverse arsenal of kicks which he mixes in with his boxing to keep his opponents on their heels. He has an effective grappling base as well, which he uses to tire and frustrate his opponents. I don’t want to sell Valiev short here as he’s definitely a prospect worth keeping an eye on. Barcelos is just far more aggressive and should have a technical advantage no matter where this fight goes. This is a Fight of the Night candidate, but I’m confidently siding with the favorite. Raoni Barcelos by Decision
  • GB: Raoni Barcelos by Round Three Submission

Tanner Boser -175 (DK $8300, FD $19) vs Ovince Saint Preux +145 (DK $7900, FD $13)

  • Anthony: The co-main event takes place at heavyweight between Tanner Boser and Ovince Saint Preux. This is a short notice fight that came together after OSP’s original opponent Maxin Grishin withdrew. That fight was set to take place at 205 pounds but when Boser threw his name into the hat as a late replacement, these two men agreed to lock horns at the heavyweight limit instead. Boser is coming off of two losses by decision and seems angry heading into this matchup. His contract has already been extended, but I expect we see more active hands from Boser here. He should feel confident moving forward against a true light heavyweight, but I still give Saint Preux the grappling advantage here despite the size discrepancy. If he is able to ground Boser at any point, he should find success advancing position and possibly even finding a finish on the mat. Things will be challenging for OSP on the feet but he at the very least has power to match that of most heavyweights. Let’s hope that if things do remain upright, Boser is a bit more active than he has been lately. All the value seems to be on the underdog in this spot so I will lock him in. The ceiling is certainly there for OSP making him an attractive play on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Ovince Saint Preux by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Ovince Saint Preux has been inconsistent, but he still has a lot of power in his strikes. His signature Von Flue choke also has to be a concern for any of his opponents. Boser is fast for the division and does a solid job using footwork to put volume on his opponents while avoiding dangerous counter shots. He was on a bit of a run in 2020, but he is now coming off back-to-back frustrating losses to Andrei Arlovski and Illir Latifi. He’ll look to turn things around here in what figures to be a fairly difficult match-up stylistically. If Boser can keep this fight on the feet, he should be able to outpoint OSP and pick him apart at range. Boser lands nearly twice as many significant strikes per minute compared to OSP. That being said, I’m not confident in him keeping this standing. Boser sounds angry in interviews leading up to this fight. He said he’s going to “go for broke” after coming off two decision losses. He was forced to quarantine traveling to and from Canada, and I question if he’ll have to proper gameplan in place to handle the veteran in this spot. He’s live for a knockout early, but he’s not one of the more powerful punchers at heavyweight. Boser should look good early, but I see OSP weathering the early storm and taking this fight to the mat. From there, he should find the opening he needs for a finish. Ovince Saint Preux by Round Two Submission.
  • GB: Ovince Saint Preux by Round Two Submission

Ciryl Gane -165 (DK $8700, FD $20) vs Alexander Volkov +135 (DK $7500, FD $17)

  • Anthony: We arrive at this evening’s main event, a heavyweight bout between Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov. It is a massive fight for the division as the winner will be primed for a title eliminator in his next time out. The undefeated Gane has been making me money since his UFC debut, but had his least impressive performance most recently against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He won all five rounds of that bout but it was an extremely boring fight as both men primarily stood and threw faints at one another. I do not mind Gane remaining hesitant against one of the best counter strikers in the promotion, but now facing Volkov the volume will certainly need to increase. We will likely see Gane pressuring more in this fight as Volkov finds a lot of success behind his boxing. The Russian is built like a welterweight or middleweight, just much bigger. He moves quickly and often beats opponents in this weight class thanks to his speed. That is one advantage that he lacks in this bout as Gane is just as agile and illusive. I see this being back and forth and do fear the straight punches of Volkov connecting and hurting Gane. However, I have to stick to the hype train and back Bon Gamin here. He is undefeated for a reason and the inexperience really is not significant given the opponents he has shared the cage with already. Volkov’s recent victories are not even as impressive as those of Gane. He should be able to trade with Volkov on the feet and has a massive advantage on the mat if things do go there. Ciryl Gane by Round Three KO
  • Nick: Outside of his former teammate and top contender Francis Ngannou, Gane is one of the most athletic fighters there is in the world at heavyweight. He moves extremely fast for this division, bringing excellent footwork and an overall athleticism that is usually considered rare. Alexander Volkov is an impressive technical kickboxer. He hass already fought a who’s who of this division, and his greatest advantage in this match-up is cage time and experience. He has more than five times as many professional fights as Gane. Gane’s clearest path to victory has to be on the ground here. He has sneaky offensive grappling ability and Volkov’s takedown defense is average at best. He can also leverage a solid leg-kicking game which can be used to keep Volkov at range. Volkov is unlikely to have the same speed advantage he normally does here. He’s going to throw more volume than Gane, but in terms of pure strength I expect he’ll be a bit outmatched. Gane said he worked with very tall training partners for this matchup. He’s aware of the quality of opponent he’ll be facing here. This is a fight I could see going either way, but I like Gane. He just has more paths to victory than Volkov, who will mostly be trying to strike at range. Ciryl Gane by Decision
  • GB: Ciryl Gane by Round Two KO

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice