UFC Vegas 28: Rozenstruik vs Sakai – 6.5.2021 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

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Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 28: Rozenstruik vs Sakai. We return to Las Vegas tonight for a fun slate of fights, featuring a slew of heavyweight bangers. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values control time and reversals. This new year, DraftKings has also added a quick win bonus for victories in the first minute as well as scoring for non-significant strikes. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value. Optimal GPP builds very rarely stack the same fight but it can be a viable strategy in cash games.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses if you want to bet on any of these picks!

If you are looking for even more UFC content, be sure to also check out Daily Play Action on YouTube where we have begun streaming breakdowns of most cards.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 119-83-2 (Last Year 223-145-6)
  • Nick: 116-86-2 (Last Year 235-133-6)
  • GB: 111-91-2 (Last Year 216-152-6)

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 9:00 AM EST 6-5-2021

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Jordan Leavitt -210 (DK $9000, FD $20) vs Claudio Puelles +170 (DK $7200, FD $10)

  • Anthony: Our card opens with a lightweight bout between Jordan Leavitt and Claudio Puelles. This is a bit of a step down in competition for Leavitt who is coming off a devastating knockout of Matt Wiman. Puelles certainly looks to be in excellent shape and is capable of winning positions in this fight. He lacks much power though and I find it difficult to expect much out of him with such gaps in his recent resume. Puelles has only competed three times since 2016. He does not have the best defense and I think Leavitt outclasses him regardless of where this fight takes place. The undefeated prospect has a very high ceiling and I see another stellar performance out of him here. Jordan Leavitt by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Jordan Leavitt is coming off a massive win via slam KO in his UFC debut against Matt Wiman. He showed serious explosiveness in that spot, adding to his highlight reel and gaining a lot of new attention and buzz as a result. Leavitt is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. Leavitt also trains out of an excellent camp via Syndicate MMA. He is undefeated professionally at 8-0 with four of his last six wins coming via submission. Puelles is coming off back-to-back wins under the UFC banner, but they came against questionable competition. He hasn’t fought since 2019, but at just 25-years old there’s a good chance he’s improved a lot during his extended time off. Like Leavitt he prefers to grapple, but the one advantage he might have here is if this fight stays standing. Neither fighter is very good on the feet, but Puelles seems to do the better job landing cleaner and more damaging shots. I still see Leavitt getting it done here. He appears to be the superior grappler and I expect he’ll find a way to end this inside the distance. He’s a solid option for DFS as well. Jordan Leavitt by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Jordan Leavitt by Round Two KO

Sean Woodson -170 (DK $8800, FD $20) vs Youssef Zalal +140 (DK $7400, FD $11)

  • Anthony: Next is an exciting featherweight bout between Sean Woodson and Youssef Zalal. After a hot start to his UFC career, Zalal has dropped two fights in a row albeit against rather impressive competition. He is diverse in his striking and really has tight defense. Woodson is willing to exchange punches far more often than Zalal , but we will have to see whether that is to his detriment in this fight. While Woodson may land more volume, I trust Zalal to counter well with his more powerful strikes. I have questions about both the cardio and takedown defense of Woodson after his most recent loss as well. It is not clear to me why he is sitting as a sizeable favorite in this matchup and for that reason I am pulling the trigger on Zalal. I like his chances whether he mixes in the wrestling or simply makes this a kickboxing match. His price is laughable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Youssef Zalal by Decision
  • Nick: Youssef Zalal fights out of an excellent camp via Factory X. His coaches usually do a great job setting their fighters up for success, leaning heavily on gameplans that focus on the weaknesses of their respective opponents. Zalal is coming off a pair of tough losses to two highly regarded prospects in Ilia Topuria and Seung Woo Choi. This fight against Woodson should be a bit of a step down for him but given Woodson’s striking prowess and kickboxing pedigree it’s unlikely to be a walk in the park. Woodson is coming off an ugly loss as a -500 favorite against a short notice opponent in Julian Erosa. Woodson was pulling ahead early in that one, but he started to fade as the fight wore on and ultimately paid for it getting submitted in the third round. He is a highly technical striker with outstanding boxing ability. Woodson continues to show improvements in other facets of his game, but he’s still mostly one dimensional. He has a 79-inch reach which is ridiculous for this division, and most of the time he uses it to keep his opponents at range. Woodson is going to have a significant advantage when this fight is standing, but I feel like Zalal can utilize his grappling to take this where it needs to go. As long as he avoids taking too much damage on his entries, I see Zalal finding the takedowns he needs to pull off the upset here. My confidence is fairly low in this spot and I wouldn’t be shocked if Woodson pulled out a decision. However, the value is all on the underdog here. Youssef Zalal by Round Three Submission
  • GB: Sean Woodson by Decision

Manon Fiorot -575 (DK $8500, FD $18) vs Tabitha Ricci +390 (DK $??00, FD $??)

  • Anthony: Here we have a women’s flyweight bout between Manon Fiorot and Tabitha Ricci. The 5-0 Ricci is stepping in on short notice as Fiorot’s original opponent, Maryna Moroz, withdrew. Already Fiorot was my favorite play on the card but now with the late opponent change, she is favored heaviest by the bettors as well. She showcased incredible striking in her UFC debut performance against Victoria Leonardo this January. She once again has a distinct size advantage and should completely dismantle Ricci on the feet. This is a jiu jitsu specialist who will likely be diving for submissions, but I fully expect Fiorot to turn her lights out. As a result of the opponent change we can also lock in Fiorot on both FanDuel and DraftKings. She is underpriced as the card’s largest favorite and more than likely going to win by finish. I plan to run her at one hundred percent when building my lineups. Manon Fiorot by Round One KO
  • Nick: Manon Fiorot was supposed to be fighting Maryna Moroz here, but Moroz was forced to pull out due to injury. She now faces a UFC debutant in Tabatha Ricci. Ricci is a well-rounded fighter, coming off back-to-back wins in the LFA. While it’s good to see her finding success in a respected promotion, the combined record of her opponents in those fights is an ugly 3-8. Ricci seems to have impressive offensive grappling ability, but we really haven’t seen her against a high level of competition. Fiorot is primarily a striker. She mixes in kicks well to set up her punches. She can still pack a punch as she backs away from her opponents and while she’d prefer to stand and trade, her grappling is sufficient enough that she should be able to keep this fight standing. Fiorot should have a massive advantage on the feet here, similar to what we saw from her in her UFC debut win against Victoria Leonardo. She has an excellent gas tank as she already has multiple five round wins under her belt. I expect she’ll stay out of Ricci’s grasp and start to pick her apart on the feet as this fight wears on. Additionally, I’m not sure Ricci even has a grappling advantage here. Fiorot is a prospect to keep an eye on for this division, and one of the best plays on the card for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Manon Fiorot by Round One KO
  • GB: Manon Fiorot by Round One KO

Mason Jones -335 (DK $9500, FD $23) vs Alan Patrick +255 (DK $6700, FD $8)

  • Anthony: This lightweight bout between Mason Jones and Alan Patrick is not a fight you want to miss. Jones is a highly touted prospect and former Cage Warriors champion. He suffered his first career loss in January after a close fight against Mike Davis. The contest was back and forth and I expected Jones to get his hand raised, but regardless of result I was impressed by his performance. This is an easier matchup for Jones and I really expect him to win if he is just a bit more defensively efficient. He absorbed over one hundred significant strikes against Davis and that was likely the optic that cost him the victory. He has exceptional boxing and I do not believe he falters against the man eleven years his elder. Nugette has dropped two fights in a row and it feels like the UFC is trying to get Jones back on track with this one. Mason Jones by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Mason Jones is one of the more highly regarded prospects in this division. He is coming off a tough loss to Mike Davis in his UFC debut, but he showed an outstanding chin and cardio in that spot against an extremely tough out in Davis. Jones ate a lot of clean shots, but he did a good job continuing to push forward and was awarded a Fight of the Night bonus for his efforts. He carries a blackbelt in BJJ, Judo and kickboxing. He’s a very well-rounded fighter with no singular standout skill, but he’s shown finishing ability against a decent level of regional competition. Jones is the former lightweight and welterweight Cage Warriors champion. He sometimes leaves himself open to counter-shots as his aggressive style isn’t matched by technical prowess, but he is advanced enough as a boxer to hang with a good chunk of this division. He also recently changed camps to Team Alpha Male. This should benefit him here as he’s likely to have better training partners and coaches around him than he did when he lived in Wales. Patrick is likely going to try to take this one to the mat. He’s shown an ability to win fights by maintaining good position, even if he doesn’t inflict a lot of damage. The problem for him here though is Jones has excellent strength and scrambling. Even if Patrick can take him down, I don’t think he can keep him there. Jones should be better than Patrick no matter where this fight goes. I see him securing his first UFC win in this spot. Mason Jones by Round Two KO
  • GB: Mason Jones by Round Two KO

Makwan Amirkhani -175 (DK $9400, FD $21) vs Kamuela Kirk +145 (DK $6800, FD $9)

  • Anthony: Next we have a featherweight scrap between Makwan Amirkhani and Kamuela Kirk. I believe the veteran Amirkhani has a distinct advantage in this fight over the UFC newcomer. The former LFA fighter is very highly ranked and seems to be live in this spot. However, his wins do not mean all that much to mean and his losses have left a sour taste in my mouth. Amirkhani got pieced up in his most recent outing versus Edson Barboza, but that really did not come as a surprise. He barely hung on for fifteen minutes in that bout and now will be back to holding all the advantages inside the octagon. His striking could be put on display here in order to prove a point, but I strongly believe he is the superior grappler of these two. As it usually goes with short notice callups, I eventually see Kirk breaking under the pressure and submitting to Amirkhani. It is an extremely tall task to face Mr. Finland in your UFC debut. He is not a super high level fighter but should certainly get the job done here. I am shocked the betting line has tightened up this much. Makwan Amirkhani by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Makwan Amirkhani’s greatest strength is his outstanding BJJ, as 11 of his 16 professional victories have come via submission. He is coming off a tough short-notice loss to Edson Barboza, but we can’t be hard on him for that one knowing Barboza’s ceiling. Kamuela Kirk is making his UFC debut here, having fought just a few weeks ago in a win over Daniel Swain. He pushes a serious pace which he uses to keep pressure on his opponents. He throws a wide range of powerful strikes, does a good job mixing in body shots and his grappling seems to be fairly advanced for a 27-year-old UFC debutant. While I do see Kirk as having a future at this level, this feels like a bit too much too soon here. He’s live as an underdog as Amirikhani’s cardio is always a bit of a question mark, but I have to back the far more experienced fighter in this spot. Kirk has never been submitted before, but I expect that trend will end in this match-up. Makwan Amirkhani by Round One Submission
  • GB: Makwan Amirkhani by Round One Submission

Muslim Salikhov -250 (DK $9100, FD $22) vs Francisco Trinaldo +200 (DK $7100, FD $8)

  • Anthony: This welterweight bout is a tough one to call as Muslim Salikhov takes on Francisco Trinaldo. It will be interesting to see Trinaldo up at welterweight, but I think he is coming into this fight with a lot of confidence remaining in his technical ability. He is extremely well rounded and coming off five straight performances where he looked exceptional. It is concerning to put money on a 42-year-old at this level but Salikhov is not much younger. The King of Kung Fu is the more threatening striker than Massaranduba, but I do not expect this fight to go fifteen minutes on the feet. The discrepancy in talent is even greater when comparing grappling skills with Trinaldo the far more intimidating. I see him attempting a few takedowns and winning rounds in this fight against Salikhov. It is a very close fight, but at these odds I am certainly going to take a shot on the underdog. Salikhov has fought primary strikers in each of his UFC wins thus far. Francisco Trinaldo by Decision
  • Nick: Muslim Salikhov is an excellent striker with an iron chin and a ton of power. He’s a former kickboxer and fairly one-dimensional, but he’s good enough on the feet to hang with almost anyone in the division. He throws a wide range of diverse strikes, including a lot of spinning attacks and counters. Trinaldo is coming off an impressive win over a highly regarded prospect Jai Herbert. He was falling behind early in that one, but he hung in there long enough to ultimately find a window for a knockout. Trinaldo is one of the more seasoned veterans still on the UFC roster. Almost all of his fights are close, regardless of who he’s facing. He usually has a size advantage at lightweight, but he’s moving up a weight class here. I expect the strength and size of Salikhov to be enough to pull this one out. He should be able to score takedowns if he needs them, and I expect he should have an advantage on the feet as well. The line is definitely too wide and he feels overpriced, but I’m siding with the favorite. I’ll have shares of Trinaldo for DFS, but it seems there are more paths for the Russian here. Muslim Salikhov by Decision
  • GB: Muslim Salikhov by Round Two KO

Tanner Boser -175 (DK $8900, FD $20) vs Illir Latifi +145 (DK $7300, FD $11)

  • Anthony: The first heavyweight bout of the night will take place here between Tanner Boser and Illir Latifi. Both fighters weighed in at around 240 pounds and I look forward to seeing how they size up inside the cage. Boser looked underwhelming in a decision loss to Andrei Arlovski in his most recent bout. He still has excellent hand speed and crisp boxing, making him once again the favorite against a slower heavyweight. Latifi is likely out of the UFC with another loss here. He may only be getting this fight thanks to manager Ali Abdelaziz. In my opinion he is past his prime and no longer a legitimate contender. Boser remains on the right side of 30 and has a wealth of experience to rely on. There may be an opportunity for Latifi to grind out a decision win but I doubt Boser gets lulled to sleep in another low volume affair. This one more than likely is over inside of fifteen minutes. Tanner Boser by Round Three KO
  • Nick: Illir Latifi is a former Light Heavyweight, but he won’t be outsized by much here against one of the division’s smaller fighters in Tanner Boser. Boser is fast for the division and does a solid job using his footwork to put volume on his opponents while avoiding dangerous counter shots. He was on a bit of a run in 2020, but he is now coming off a frustrating loss to Andrei Arlovski. He out-landed Arlovski in that spot, but he really never landed anything significant or damaging. He’ll look to bounce back here in what figures to be a fairly difficult match-up stylistically. Boser has never been taken down in the UFC, but takedowns have only been attempted on him twice in total. Latifi is going to try to take this fight to the mat, but as long as Boser can stay standing he should be able to pull away in the striking exchanges. My confidence is definitely low in this spot, as it is a true clash of styles. However, I’m siding with the younger and fresher fighter in Boser. I like that he gained some weight leading into this fight, and I expect he’ll be strong enough to frustrate Latifi’s grappling attempts. Tough one for sure. Tanner Boser by Decision
  • GB: Tanner Boser by Decision

Montana de la Rosa -275 (DK $9300, FD $22) vs Ariane Lipski +220 (DK $6900, FD $9)

  • Anthony: The final preliminary fight is a flyweight tilt between Montana de la Rosa and Ariane Lipski. Neither of these fighters are very good and it is shocking to see de la Rosa favored so heavily. She is the superior wrestler and will likely try to ground Lipski for the majority of this bout. Neither are all that threatening on the feet and after seeing Lipski handled with ease by Antonina Shevchenko on the mat, it is difficult to back her even as a juicy underdog. I side with the favorite here but would not be surprised to see a sketchy, sloppy fight. Montana de la Rosa by Decision
  • Nick: Montana de la Rosa is a well-rounded fighter who has shown serious improvements since making her debut. That being said, there’s really nothing about her game that suggests she’s ever going to contend for a title. She’s coming off a hard fought draw against Mayra Bueno Silva. She did a good job staying busy in that one, but she never managed to pull away on the scorecards as she was docked a point from referee for grabbing the fence. Lipski has solid BJJ, but she doesn’t really have the takedown entries to get the fight to the ground. She absorbs nearly twice as many strikes as she lands per minute. Her best bet in this one will be to try to work for a submission, but de la Rosa is well-versed enough in her grappling ability that I find her struggling to land it. The line definitely feels too wide in this spot, but de la Rosa is the rightful favorite. Montana de la Rosa by Decision
  • GB: Montana de la Rosa by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Tom Breese -265 (DK $9200, FD $21) vs Antonio Arroyo +210 (DK $7000, FD $10)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with a middleweight fight between Tom Breese and Antonio Arroyo. I am really down on Arroyo after his December loss to Deron Winn, a fighter I do not hold in high regard. Winn landed twelve takedowns successfully and although Breese is not as accredited a wrestler, he is as dangerous in the grappling department. Additionally, Breese has the more powerful strikes and superior boxing in comparison to Arroyo. At these odds I do not think you can bet on Breese, but I do like the upside for him as a DFS option. Arroyo lacks any quality wins and has a far softer resume than that of Breese. It is tough to imagine what his path to victory looks like here. Tom Breese by Decision
  • Nick: There are always a plethora of questions surrounding Breese heading into his each of his fights. He struggles with anxiety and mental health issues, but when he’s in the right mind-frame he’s a dangerous power striker at middleweight. Breese throws a wide variety of strikes and carries a lot of power in the clinch and his grappling seems to improve every time we see him fight. He is coming off a tough loss to Omari Akhmedov, but Akhmedov had a very clear grappling advantage in that spot. Arroyo will have an advantage if this fight hits the mat as well, but I’m not confident in his ability to get it there in the way Akhmedov did. He has solid BJJ, but it’s seldom he can find the proper positions to use it. Arroyo has a lot of power in his strikes. He does not throw much volume, but he’s generally efficient as often both the punches and the kicks he throws are significant. He throws powerful leg and body kicks that really snap, he does a good job circling away from the strengths of his opponents and his kicking keeps more powerful opponents at range. That being said, everything good we’ve seen from Arroyo has come against a mediocre level of fighter. As long as Breese is there mentally, this feels like his to win. Tom Breese by Round Two KO
  • GB: Tom Breese by Round One KO

Dusko Todorovic -130 (DK $8600, FD $17) vs Gregory Rodrigues +110 (DK $7600, FD $14)

  • Anthony: I am looking forward to this middleweight bout between Dusko Todorovic and Gregory Rodrigues. The UFC debutant is Rodrigues who won an LFA main event two weeks ago with a knockout of Josh Fremd. That earned him this short notice callup which I believe to be a fight he can absolutely win. Money has poured in on Rodrigues this week, as he opened as wide as a +210 at some books. Todorovic is a powerful wrestler who should be able to ground and control his opponents, but that was the case going into his last fight as well. Punahele Soriano kept his distance and knocked out Todorovic in the very first round. It always feels good to back an active fighter like Rodrigues, but it is tough to determine whether this is too great a step up in competition. I am confident saying this fight is finished inside of ten minutes but not so confident picking the winner. I lean ever so slightly the way of Rodrigues. Gregory Rodrigues by Round One KO
  • Nick: Todorovic is an extremely powerful striker with crisp boxing and a solid ground game. He is well rounded with a solid grappling base, but he seems most comfortable on his feet. He throws extremely powerful combos and uses the fence well to put his opponents in difficult positions. That being said, he also fights with his hands down at times and he leaves himself open to counter shots. We saw in his last fight, a KO loss against Punahele Soriano, that his chin is a bit of a question mark as well. Rodrigues is coming off a knockout win for the LFA Middleweight Title as a +190 underdog over Josh Fremd. An impressive feat, but now Rodrigues is taking this fight on extremely short notice after Maki Pitolo was forced to pull out due to injury. On a full camp, I could see Rodrigues pulling this off as the underdog. He’s live for the knockout here regardless and I’ll definitely have shares of him for DFS purposes. That being said, I’m siding with the favorite. I just feel he’s seen a higher level of competition and on a full camp his experience should win out here. His chin definitely scares me, but he is my pick. Dusko Todorovic by Round One KO
  • GB: Dusko Todorovic by Decision

Miguel Baeza -125 (DK $8300, FD $15) vs Santiago Ponzinibbio +105 (DK $7900, FD $15)

  • Anthony: Perhaps the closest fight of the evening takes place at welterweight between Miguel Baeza and Santiago Ponzinibbio. This is such an interesting matchup as both fighters enter on different streaks and very different stages of their careers. The young Baeza is now 10-0 and has finished all three of his UFC fights inside of two rounds. Ponzinibbio was riding high before injuries forced a significant layoff from action. He was knocked out in his return to action this January, but that alone does not make me worry. The primary concern was how rusty Ponzinibbio looked in that bout, throwing almost no volume and prodding around extremely slow. He was noticeably better looking at weigh-ins yesterday but I still feel concerned about backing him here. Baeza may be taking a big step up in competition with this matchup but he has looked excellent in every fight thus far. He will be very effective from range and mix in more diverse strikes than the boxing heavy Ponzinibbio. Miguel Baeza by Round Two KO
  • Nick: These guys are both extremely aggressive strikers and they’ve both shown an ability to still throw hard late in fights. Baeza likes to throw frequent leg-kicks. He uses them to both damage his opponents and keep them at range. He’s already shown that this is a vital part of his game plan against other strikers, and I once again expect him to lean on that gameplan here. Known primarily as a striker, Baeza is coming off an impressive submission win over Takashi Sato. He’s undefeated at 10-0, but this definitely represents a massive step up for him in terms of competition level. Ponzinibbio was the class of this division before he was forced to miss more than two years with an extensive list of injuries. He’s coming off a tough KO loss to a powerful striker in Li Jingliang in his return, but one has to wonder how much of that poor performance was the result of ring rust. There is a chance he still won’t return to form here, but it’s tough to know exactly what we’re going to see out of him based only on that spot against Li. This one could definitely go either way and I’ll have shares of each fighter on DraftKings and FanDuel. However, I’m siding with experience in this one. My confidence is low but I see Ponzi returning to form and getting back into the win column. Santiago Ponzinibbio by Round Two KO
  • GB: Miguel Baeza by Decision

Roman Dolidze -145 (DK $8400, FD $16) vs Laureano Staropoli +120 (DK $7800, FD $14)

  • Anthony: The featured bout takes place at middleweight between Roman Dolidze and Laureano Staropoli. The UFC run for Dolidze has been decent, with wins over Khadis Ibragimov and John Allan, as well as a close decision loss to Trevin Giles. He is a fun fighter to watch as he likes to taunt opponents and inform them when their strikes miss or simply do not hurt. We have seen his stand up quite a bit to this point and I am more impressed with his hands than I had been upon his call up. He really is more proficient grappling though, with a wide variety of submissions if he can take opponents to the mat. He has the advantage there over Staropoli today but if things remain standing it is a bit tough to trust the cardio and output of Dolidze. The move down to middleweight was certainly the right choice for him but he once again faces a tough opponent here. I just see the losing streak of Staropoli getting extended due to his lack of awareness on the ground. Roman Dolidze by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Laureano Staropoli is a decent striker we usually see throwing a lot of volume, but he’s coming off back to back losses and he could be fighting for his job here. Dolidze is extremely well-rounded. He has a powerful wrestling base, but he also carries underrated power in his strikes. He throws looping hooks, and he mixes body shots into his combos effectively as well. The one knock on his striking is that he sometimes leaves himself there to be hit with counters and he’s also not going to bring much in terms of volume. Dolidze packs a lot of power in his strikes, but he’s also a decorated grappler as an ADCC Asia and Oceania Champion. Additionally, the first three wins of his professional career came via submission. Dolidze has recently begun training at Xtreme Couture. As a fighter who was the owner of his own small gym before the move, this camp shift should help him improve considerably in each fight moving forward. He’s now training with tougher partners and learning new techniques he wouldn’t have been able to otherwise. As promising as he may be, there are questions around Dolidze’s cardio as well as his Fight IQ here. He is definitely talented, but he doesn’t manage his gas tank well. This is one of the closer fights on the card, but it’s also one I see coming down to size and strength more so than overall ability. Staropoli has primarily fought at welterweight at 170 pounds, and Dolidze has fought the majority of his professional fights at 205. It was evident at weigh-ins that Dolidze is the much bigger fighter, and I expect that advantage to shine through here. My confidence is low in this spot as Dolidze has a knack for putting himself in bad positions. Still, I see him getting it done as the favorite. Roman Dolidze by Decision
  • GB: Roman Dolidze by Round One Submission

Marcin Tybura -190 (DK $8700, FD $17) vs Walt Harris +155 (DK $7500, FD $14)

  • Anthony: The co-main event is a heavyweight bout between Marvin Tybura and Walt Harris. This matchup is stylistically one sided as Tybura should have no problem out working Harris on the mat, as many opponents have before. The issue is obviously the one punch power that Harris possesses, but his last two fights certainly don’t give me much confidence in him landing it. Tybura rides a four-fight win streak into this matchup and is coming off a finish of another headhunting heavyweight in Greg Hardy. He may not have what it takes to defeat top level contenders, but a matchup with Harris seems to cater to him exceptionally well. After a very active 2020, Tybura will be fresh heading into war this evening. I see him dominating Harris with wrestling here. I really like the upside playing him in DFS given his high takedown numbers and potential to finish this fight. Marcin Tybura by Decision
  • Nick: Walt Harris is an athletic heavyweight with knockout power. He is fairly one-dimensional, but he’s had a lot of success against high-level competition with notable KO Wins over Sergey Spivak and Aleksei Oleinik. Marcin Tybura is coming off the best year of his career. He went 4-0 under the UFC banner in 2020, defeating the likes of Sergey Spivak, Ben Rothwell and Greg Hardy along the way. Tybura is decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via his wrestling. He is a BJJ black belt and undoubtedly the better grappler in this match-up, so his path to victory is clear. He needs to use his strength advantage to drag Harris to the mat and control position for however long he can. Harris has decent takedown defense, but once he’s down he seems to have trouble getting back to his feet. When this fight is on the feet, Tybura will almost always be in danger. However, I don’t expect it to stay there for long. I think it’s most likely that we see Tybura pull this one out on the scorecards, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended the fight early via ground and pound or a submission. Harris is certainly live for an upset as he’s shown serious KO power in the past. However, the longer this fight goes, the less likely it will be that Harris pulls off a win. I expect Harris to come out swinging and I imagine he’ll do everything he can to end this early, but Tybura should be able to stay out of harm’s way until he can drag things into his world. I’ll definitely have shares of Harris for DFS purposes as Tybura has been KO’d in four of his six professional losses. However, I think the favorite gets it done. Marcin Tybura by Decision
  • GB: Marcin Tybura by Round Two KO

Jairzinho Rozenstruik -125 (DK $8200, FD $19) vs Augusto Sakai +105 (DK $8000, FD $17)

  • Anthony: The main event will be contested at heavyweight between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai. This is a good matchup as both fighters look to bounce back after their most recent losses. Sakai was dominated late by Alistair Overeem in their main event bout most recently. He has good hand speed and combinations for a heavyweight of his size and certainly carries power. However, Sakai does not pose quite the KO threat of other top fifteen fighters in this division. I believe they the counter striking of Rozenstruik gets him the victory here. The loss he suffered to Ciryl Gane was largely due to inactivity as he was picked apart from range for a full twenty-five minutes. Sakai relies on his pressure boxing to hurt opponents and I find it very likely that these two engage more inside of two rounds than Rozenstruik and Gane did their entire previous fight. There will be many more opportunities for Rozenstruik to land that knockout in this bout, and he has stated himself that the gameplan is to be far more aggressive. There is a lot of value on him at the current odds and I lean his way in this bout although it could certainly be stolen by Sakai. I will give Sakai the edge when it comes to technical striking, but I do not trust him to survive a full five rounds with Rozenstruik here. Jairzinho Rozenstruik by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Rozenstruik is well-rounded, but he’s most content fighting on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown on several occasions that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. While he throws well off his back foot, he sometimes lets fights get away from him as he never pushes much of a pace. He throws powerful high kicks on occasion, but he uses low kicks frequently to keep his opponents at range. Rozenstruik is coming off a tough loss to Ciryl Gane, a fight in which he was picked apart on the feet. He was unable to close the distance in that spot against a rangier and more technically gifted striker in Gane. Sakai isn’t nearly as powerful as Rozenstruik, but he throws a lot more volume and he’s far more aggressive. He does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents, but he’s more likely to seek out a finish. If Rozenstruik doesn’t find a counter shot knockout early here, there’s a good chance he falls behind on the scorecards. That being said, Rozenstruik likely has the far better gas tank in this one. As we’ve seen in his fights many times before, Rozenstruik is just as live for a knockout late as he is early. I expect Sakai will look good early here, but his aggressive style should play right into Rozenstruik’s advanced countering ability. Jairzinho Rozenstruik by Round Two KO
  • GB: Jairzinho Rozenstruik by Round Three KO

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice