UFC Vegas 20: Rozenstruik vs Gane – 2.27.2021 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

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Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 20: Rozenstruik vs Gane. After a card stacked with heavyweights last weekend, we are back with a short slate of fights headlined but yet another tilt between two of the promotions most dangerous men. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values control time and reversals. This new year, DraftKings has also added a quick win bonus for victories in the first minute as well as scoring for non-significant strikes. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value. Optimal GPP builds very rarely stack the same fight but it can be a viable strategy in cash games.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses if you want to bet on any of these picks!

If you are looking for even more UFC content, be sure to also check out Daily Play Action on YouTube where we have begun streaming breakdowns of most cards.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 40-29-0 (Last Year 223-145-6)
  • Nick: 37-32-0 (Last Year 235-133-6)
  • GB: 36-33-0 (Last Year 216-152-6)

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 10:15 AM EST 2-27-2021

Preliminary Card- Start 6:00pm EST

Dustin Jacoby -185 (DK $8500, FD $18) vs Maxim Grishin +150 (DK $7700, FD $12)

  • Anthony: Our card opens with this light heavyweight bout between Maxin Grishin and Dustin Jacoby. Both of these guys have shown a lot to like in the cage over the course of their careers. Jacoby is a highly credentialed kickboxer who looked excellent in his UFC debut against Justin Ledet. He is extremely talented on the feet and certainly has the power to knockout opponents at this weight. I would rather see Jacoby fighting down at 185 pounds, but he certainly holds the speed advantage over most fighters in the light heavyweight division. Grishin on the other hand made his UFC debut at heavyweight against Marcin Tybura. He was six pounds heavier than Jacoby on the scales yesterday, a potentially planned missed based on his reaction. With excellent hand speed himself and the ability to take this fight to the mat if needed, I believe Grishin has the advantage here. While it is likely Jacoby gets the nod if this fight does go to decision, Grishin has the ability to finish this bout both on the feet and on the mat. I like the value on him here, my only underdog play this slate. Maxin Grishin by Round Two KO
  • Nick: At his point in his career, Dustin Jacoby has excellent striking ability. A former Glory Kickboxer, he brings a diverse arsenal of kicks and generally does a good job using them to keep his opponents at range. Grishin is a well-rounded fighter who’s solid pretty much everywhere. He is an effective wrestler with solid takedown entries, and while new to the UFC he has a ton of cage time in other big promotions like PFL and M1. Jacoby has an excellent leg kick, but if he throws it excessively there’s a chance he creates an opportunity for Grishin to take him down. He’s going to be a lot faster than Grishin on the feet, but his takedown defense will need to be on point to win this one. Grishin is the more experienced fighter. If he drags Jacoby into his range and grinds him up against this cage he could pull out an ugly win on the scorecards. However, I think Jacoby’s speed advantage will be too much for him to handle here. Grishin has decent head movement, but he can fold under pressure if he’s backed up by opponents. My confidence level is fairly low in this one. Grishin missed weight by five pounds, but it may be an advantage as he looked decent on the scale. I’m siding with the favorite but proceed with some caution. Dustin Jacoby by Decision
  • GB: Maxin Grishin by Decision

Ronnie Lawrence -170 (DK $8600, FD $18) vs Vince Cachero +140 (DK $7600, FD $13)

  • Anthony: Next on the card is a bantamweight bout between Ronnie Lawrence and Vince Cachero. This was probably the most difficult fight for me to decide on this week. Lawrence looked great on Dana White’s Contender Series, demonstrating his ability to fight while standing and on the mat. He is the harder hitting fighter and more likely to take this to the ground if things are not going his way trading strikes with Cachero. He has never been finished before and I do not believe Cachero will be the guy to catch him. For Cachero, the key in this fight will likely be throwing more volume than Lawrence and avoiding the grappling exchanges at all costs. It is shaping up to be your typical back and forth, scramble heavy fight we are accustomed to seeing in this weight class. I will side ever so slightly with Lawrence here, but it is by no means my most confident pick. Neither guy is super appealing for DFS purposes but Lawrence is priced fairly given his chance of finding a finish. Ronnie Lawrence by Decision
  • Nick: Ronnie Lawrence is coming off an impressive Dana White’s Contender Series win as a +260 underdog over Jose Johnson. He pushes a serious pace, is well-rounded and he can finish a fight in a number of ways. He has crisp striking with good head movement, but is also more than willing to lean on his grappling in certain match-ups. Cachero has solid defensive grappling, but I’m expecting Lawrence to tire him. Lawrence scored twelve takedowns in his most recent boutt. He won’t match that success here but at the very least it’s going to give Cachero something to think about. Cachero is willing to eat shots to throw them. He’s a gritty fighter than can push a pace, but he doesn’t have a ton of power. Lawrence appears to be the more powerful of the two, which gives him an additional path to victory if this fight takes place on the feet for longer than Cachero’s chin can hold. Cachero is a decent everywhere, but he really has no standout skill. I expect Lawrence to outclass him no matter where this fight goes. My confidence is fairly low in this one, as there are still some questions around Lawrence’s true ability. However, I am liking what we have seen so far. Ronnie Lawrence by Round Two KO
  • GB: Vince Cachero by Decision

Sabina Mazo -205 (DK $8900, FD $19) vs Alexis Davis +165 (DK $7300, FD $9)

  • Anthony: Here we have a women’s bantamweight fight between Sabina Mazo and Alexis Davis. Mazo is a legitimate prospect that has done nothing but impress since her UFC debut. She move sup to bantamweight for this bout but once again holds the size advantage over her opponent. I expect Mazo to use that to keep this fight standing as she picks apart Davis on the feet. She is a very well-developed striker and I do not see her having any problems trading with Davis here. Some respect needs to be given to Davis who is certainly a veteran of the sport. She has fought a murderers row of opponents as of late and now steps into the octagon for her 30th career fight. She certainly has a path to victory in this fight by bringing Mazo to the mat and grinding out a decision that way, but getting this fight to the ground will be difficult. Mazo’s striking cannot be taken lightly and I think a tentative Davis avoids making this fight as sloppy as she will need to. Davis may have a chance to win a round early, but Mazo should cruise to a victory here as the strikes start to pile up. Sabina Mazo by Decision
  • Nick: Sabina Mazo is a highly regarded prospect, but she’s going to be taking a step up here against a former title challenger in Alexis Davis. Mazo trains out of King’s MMA. She’s a high-volume kick boxer that uses her reach well. She throws a powerful head kick which led her to several victories for her on the regional level. Alexis Davis, in spite or her recent losing streak, has a very impressive resume. She has faced far better than Mazo in the past. She’s battle tested, has a solid chin and her cardio usually lasts for the entirety of her fights. While her chin is solid, Davis doesn’t wear damage well. If it’s a close fight there is a good chance she drops the decision and if she’s bleeding early it could impede her vision. Mazo is effective striking at close range and in the clinch. She’s going to push a serious pace her and I’m more than confident she’s going to significantly out volume Davis. The one path to victory here for Davis would be to ground Mazo and control the fight on the mat. However, I expect the younger and more athletic Mazo to work back to her feet if she needs to. I feel like Davis takes too many shots to find much success on the feet against an aggressive striker in Mazo. I’m siding with the favorite in this one. Sabina Mazo by Decision
  • GB: Sabina Mazo by Decision

Alexander Hernandez -240 (DK $8700, FD $20) vs Thiago Moises +190 (DK $7500, FD $11)

  • Anthony: The featured prelim is an excellent lightweight scrap between Thiago Moises and Alexander Hernandez. Moises has proven to be a tough nut for me to crack. I bet against him in his two most recent bouts and he walked away victorious on both occasions. He has extremely slick grappling with plenty of submission wins on his resume. Not only that but Moises’ wrestling has improved slowly and now he is really making a name for himself in this division. Hernandez is one of the more exciting fighters outside of the rankings at 155 pounds. He will likely try to keep things standing here against such a credentialed grappler, striking on the outside and taking chances only when he can really crack Moises. While the Brazilian has never been finished before, I believe Hernandez has the power to catch him in this bout. The price tag is certainly fair for Hernandez but I would not be surprised for Moises to steal yet another win from me here today. Alexander Hernandez by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Hernandez recently shifted camps to Factory X. He’s always had talent, but the shift in camps could be enough for him to improve his formerly questionable Fight IQ. His confidence was definitely too high coming into the UFC. He seems to finally have been humbled a bit, and I expect him to fight much more intelligently moving forward. He’s coming off a nice win over Chris Gruetzemacher, but he’ll have a much tougher test here against a talented fighter. Moises is a BJJ specialist. He has a blackbelt under Paulo Streckert and 6 of his 14 professional wins have come via submission. Hernandez is extremely active in the cage and as long as he can keep this fight standing it feels like his match-up to lose. Moises’ striking is solid, but not nearly on the same level. Hernandez will need to show improvements in his takedown defense here in order to be worth his price but I feel he’s the rightful favorite. I expect him to come out with a smart and reserved game plan here against a dangerous grappler. Moises is live for the submission so he’s worth getting exposure to for DFS purposes, but I expect Hernandez to ultimately find more success. Alexander Hernandez by Round Two KO
  • GB: Thiago Moises by Round Two Submission

Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Alex Caceres -185 (DK $8800, FD $19) vs Kevin Croom +150 (DK $7400, FD $10)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with a fun featherweight bout between Alex Caceres and Kevin Croom. These are two veterans that just ooze confidence and really seem to enjoy themselves in the cage at this stage of their career. Croom pulled off a massive upset win over Roosevelt Roberts in his UFC debut. That fight was over in under a minute as Croom landed a clean shot and proceeded to lock in a standing guillotine choke. Now he is faced with a very cerebral fighter in Caceres who can get things done no matter where this fight goes. Croom may take a more measured approach in this bout, but I do not think he has the tools to really put away Caceres like he will certainly need to. Caceres is on a tidy win streak of his own, most recently choking out UFC newcomer Austin Springer in August of last year. As much as I like Croom’s personality, he likely meets a similar fate here in this matchup. If Caceres is able to weather the early storm, he should have no problem taking over in this fight either on the feet or in a grappling exchange. Alex Caceres by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Caceres is likely to outclass Croom on the feet here. He’s a highly technical striker that does an excellent job managing distance. He doesn’t carry much power, but he does a good job landing from unconventional angles. Caceres pushes a serious pace and generally does a good job keeping his opponents on their heels. Kevin Croom is coming off an impressive UFC debut, defeating Roosevelt Roberts via first round submission as a heavy underdog. His clearest path to victory here will be to ground Caceres and work him for a submission. A big factor for Croom here will be that he has James Krause in his corner. Krause has already found a lot of success in 2021, scoring notable wins in the corners of fighters like Julian Marquez and Darrick Minner. If Caceres can keep this fight on the feet, he should cruise to a decision victory. However, I’m willing to risk it on the underdog here as Caceres sports a terrible 59 percent takedown defense. I expect Krause to provide Croom with an intelligent plan of attack in this spot. I’ll have shares of both fighters for DFS purposes as it could go either way, but I’m liking the value on the underdog to get things done in this spot. Kevin Croom by Round Three Submission
  • GB: Kevin Croom by Round Two KO

Angela Hill vs Ashley Yoder

*This fight has been scratched from today’s card

Jimmie Rivera -150 (DK $8300, FD $17) vs Pedro Munhoz +120 (DK $7900, FD $15)

  • Anthony: This bout has Fight of the Night potential as Jimmie Rivera will take on Pedro Munhoz here at bantamweight. These are two fighters that I have come to enjoy a lot and really seems like a fight that could be decided in a million different ways. Munhoz is a very powerful striker. He does not throw the highest volume and against a pressure fighter like Rivera I could see him running into a few problems today. Both have exceptional wrestling but Rivera has made a name off his takedown defense and is coming off a massive win up at featherweight against Cody Stamann. Muhoz is coming off a split decision loss to Frankie Edgar that I absolutely thought he won. The volume was an issue in that fight too. Munhoz will need to have made major changes to his gameplan if he wants to turn things around here, now in a three-round atmosphere. Rivera has only lost to absolute killers and I do not think Munhoz is quite on his level in this division. He could perhaps chop down Rivera’s lead leg or catch him with a shot to drop him early, but I think his chances in this bout are slim to none. This fight is almost certainly going to decision as Munhoz has never been finished and Rivera has gone the distance in eight of his last nine bouts. Jimmie Rivera by Decision
  • Nick: Rivera is a highly technical striker with excellent footwork and head movement. He also sports an outstanding 92 percent takedown defense. He does a good job keeping the fight where he wants it, occasionally shooting for takedowns of his own but mostly by closing range on his opponents and picking them apart on the feet. Munhoz is going to have the advantage when it comes to volume when this fight is standing, but he has a negative striking differential which could prove costly against a technical boxer like Rivera. Munhoz is live for the submission if he can take Rivera down, but Rivera’s historically outstanding takedown defense suggests that is unlikely. Rivera is short and stocky with a very low center of gravity and powerful hips. This is a rematch of a fight that took place back in 2015. It was closely contested, but Rivera was able to turn it on late ultimately taking over late in the third round. He is the more technically sound striker and as long as Munhoz doesn’t catch him with something I expect Munhoz to get out struck for the better part of three rounds. It is worth noting that Rivera’s lower volume style makes him less than ideal for DFS, but he is my pick to win. Jimmie Rivera by Decision
  • GB: Pedro Munhoz by Round Three KO

Mayra Bueno Silva -135 (DK $8400, FD $16) vs Montana De La Rosa +105 (DK $7800, FD $14)

  • Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight fight between Mayra Bueno Silva and Montana De La Rosa. While not the most exciting tilt in recent memory, this could be a good scrap as these women jockey for position in their division. De La Rosa is coming off a loss to Viviane Araujo where we really got to learn what she can and cannot do in the octagon. She really has remedial striking and only finds success in fights that she can take to the mat. In this bout, Bueno Silva can simply keep things standing and pick apart De La Rosa on the feet. I am sure she is not fearful of the takedown threats from De La Rosa as she boasts five submission victories of her own. Bueno Silva is the more potent finisher and the far better martial artist in my opinion. She is absolutely the pick for me here, but even at these juicy odds I am not sure I put any money on a fight like this. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision
  • Nick: Montana De La Rosa is coming off a tough loss to Viviane Araujo. She was picked apart by Araujo on the feet in that one, throwing a ton of strikes but missing on most of them. She shot for several takedowns in that one too, but Araujo was able to stuff her on five of six attempts. She’s a well-rounded fighter who has shown serious improvements since making her debut, but there’s really nothing about her game that suggests she’s ever going to content for a title. Bueno Silva throws a solid leg kick and her advanced grappling makes her dangerous for any opponent. Five of her seven professional wins have come via submission. She doesn’t shoot for takedowns as often as she should, but once the fight hits the mat she’s always live for the finish. On the feet, Bueno Silva usually throws more volume than De La Rosa. I expect her to be the better fighter no matter where this fight goes. Since this is a lower-level match-up it wouldn’t shock me if De La Rosa pulled off the upset. However, I’m siding with the grappling advantage of the favorite. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision
  • GB: Mayra Bueno Silva by Round Three Submission

Magomed Ankalaev -325 (DK $9300, FD $23) vs Nikita Krylov +250 (DK $6900, FD $8)

  • Anthony: I am very excited for tonight’s co-main event at light heavyweight between Magomed Ankalaev and Nikita Krylov. This will be a good test for Ankalaev as he climbs up the rankings and now faces a very experienced veteran with multiple stints in this promotion. Krylov has excellent offensive grappling and I am worried a bit about him potentially locking up a submission victory in this fight. However, I would probably take Ankalaev over any light heavyweight currently ranked outside the top five. He is a phenomenal striker with some of the division’s heaviest hands. Not to mention Ankalaev has displayed exceptional footwork, a wide arsenal of kicks and one of the fastest left hands in the UFC. With 85 percent takedown defense he should be able to keep this fight on the feet and eventually connect clean on Krylov. The odds are a bit wider than they may should be, but I am buying into the hype here. Ankalaev’s only loss came in the final second of his bout with Paul Craig, late enough for me to be suspicious of a fix. He has been nothing but dominant thus far in the UFC and is my most confident pick on tonight’s card. Magomed Ankalaev by Round One KO
  • Nick: Magomed Ankalaev has ridiculously powerful head kicks, extremely diverse striking and intelligent footwork. He’s well versed in terms of grappling, but his powerful and precise striking is what has many touting him as a future top contender at light heavyweight. He throws meaningful strikes and does a good job staying out of range against a variety of opponents. Krylov is more than willing to eat shots to throw them. He’s an aggressive offensive grappler with fifteen of his twenty-seven professional wins coming by way of submission. His clearest path to victory is to take Ankalaev to the mat here. Ankalaev is a competent defensive wrestler but Krylov has shown he’s capable of scoring a submission against almost anyone. Krylov hasn’t fought in nearly a year. He is advanced enough to possibly catch Ankalaev in a submission but the odds of that taking place seem slim at best. I expect Ankalaev to keep Krylov at range as he picks him apart on the feet. Magomed Ankalaev by Round Two KO
  • GB: Nikita Krylov by Round Two Submission

Ciryl Gane -265 (DK $9000, FD $22) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +205 (DK $7200, FD $17)

  • Anthony: The main event takes place at heavyweight between Ciryl Gane and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. This fight will play a major role in deciding which of these two continues their ascent to the belt in a suddenly stacked division. Rozenstruik is a highly credentialed kickboxer who has done incredibly well thus far in the UFC. His only hiccups came in a fight versus Alistair Overeem that he eventually won, and his quick knockout loss to Francis Ngannou. People may think he is being disrespected by this line but I am fully aware of the power and technique Rozenstruik brings into the cage. However, his opponent Ciryl Gane is also a monster. The only real reason one may fade Gane at this juncture is his short resume. He remains undefeated but has not fought many tough opponents and never once saw rounds four or five. He is the pick in this spot nonetheless though. Gane has exceptional grappling and I am sure he could wrestle his way to victory if desired. His frame is massive and I believe he can really push Rozenstruik around, even if Bigi Boy does have the heavier hands. I think Gane fights a high-pressure fight here, keeping Rozenstruik on his back foot. It is unlikely Gane fights the man with 64 kickboxing knockouts at kickboxing range. He should control position for a majority of this fight and I expect him to eventually overwhelm Rozenstruik. Ciryl Gane by Round Three KO
  • Nick: Outside of his former teammate and top contender Francis Ngannou, Gane is one of the most athletic fighters there is in the world at heavyweight. He moves extremely fast for this division, bringing excellent footwork and an overall athleticism that is usually considered rare. Rozenstruik is well-rounded, but he’s most content fighting on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown on several occasions that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. While he throws well off his back foot, he sometimes lets fights get away from him as he never pushes much of a pace. He throws powerful high kicks on occasion, but he uses low kicks frequently to keep his opponents at range. Gane’s clearest path to victory may actually be on the ground here. He has sneaky offensive grappling ability and Rozenstruik’s takedown defense is average at best. On the feet, Rozenstruik may be the more powerful striker. However, Gane lands nearly two more significant strikes per minute. As long as he can avoid the knockout shot, Gane should control the fight here. I expect him to outland Rozenstruik and lean on his grappling in order to grind this one out. I’ll have shares of Rozenstruik for DFS purposes as he’s live for a knockout finish but I expect Gane to win as the favorite here. Ciryl Gane by Round Three KO
  • GB: Jairzinho Rozenstruik by Round Three KO

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice