UFC Fight Island 8: Chiesa vs Magny – 1.20.2021 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

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Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Island 8: Chiesa vs Magny. After an awesome card this past Saturday, we have a great slate of fights on the schedule once again here in Abu Dhabi. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values control time and reversals. This new year, DraftKings has also added a quick win bonus for victories in the first minute as well as scoring for non-significant strikes. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value. Optimal GPP builds very rarely stack the same fight but it can be a viable strategy in cash games.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses if you want to bet on any of these picks!

If you are looking for even more UFC content, be sure to also check out Daily Play Action on YouTube where we have begun streaming breakdowns of almost every card.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 5-5-0 (Last Year 223-145-6)
  • Nick: 5-5-0 (Last Year 235-133-6)
  • GB: 4-6-0 (Last Year 216-152-6)

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 9:30 PM EST 1-19-2021

Preliminary Card- Starts 9:00am EST

Manon Fiorot -210 (DK $8900, FD $20) vs Victoria Leonardo +170 (DK $7300, FD $12)

  • Anthony: The card opens bright and early with this women’s flyweight bout between Manon Fiorot and Victoria Leonardo. They are both making their UFC debut here. Leonardo looked good in her Dana White’s Contender Series win over Chelsea Hackett, but I have not been impressed assessing her prior resume. Fiorot on the other hand is a very dangerous striker with excellent kickboxing and an advantage here fighting out of the southpaw stance. She has grown accustomed to competing in Abu Dhabi with her title run in UAE Warriors and seems to be the larger of these two. I expect her to find success in this fight striking at range and winning by either decision or TKO. There is a path to victory for Leonardo through takedowns and control time, but I do not see her handling the power and volume of Fiorot all that well. Manon Fiorot by Decision
  • Nick: We have two UFC debutants here, both 30-years old. Leonardo pulled off an impressive upset against Chelsea Hackett on Dana White’s Contender Series as a +220 Underdog. She’s a decent grappler with solid ground and pound, but her striking still appears to be underdeveloped. Fiorot is primarily a striker. She mixes in kicks well to set up her punches. She can still pack a punch as she backs away from her opponents and while she’d prefer to stand and trade, her grappling is sufficient enough that she should be able to keep this fight standing where she’ll have a distinct advantage. Fiorot has an excellent gas tank as she already has multiple five round wins under her belt. Even if Leonardo grounds her once or twice early, I expect her to lean on her athleticism to get back to her feet and regain momentum. I wouldn’t put too much money on either fighter here as they’re both still mostly unproven, but it seems Fiorot’s striking advantage here will be much more significant than Leonardo’s advantage on the mat. Manon Fiorot by Decision
  • GB: Manon Fiorot by Decision

Umar Nurmagomedov -550 (DK $9500, FD $20) vs Sergey Morozov +375 (DK $6700, FD $10)

  • Anthony: Next on the card is the long-awaited UFC debut of Khabib’s cousin Umar Nurmagomedov here versus Sergey Morozov. The entire region will be watching as the undefeated Nurmagomedov steps into the octagon for what should be a convincing debut. Morozov is a tough fighter, hailing from nearby Kazakhstan and coming off a bantamweight championship run in M-1. He has a lot of power and it seems that Khabib and this camp certainly respect him as an opponent. However, Umar has improved into a much more polished fighter who has an extremely high ceiling in the UFC’s bantamweight division. His volume takedowns, very good striking and wide arsenal of kicks should be enough to overwhelm Morozov here. At faceoffs he looked far more physically imposing and I think the longer this fight goes the more we see him take control. Umar Nurmagomedov by Round Three Submission
  • Nick: We have an excellent match-up here between two quality Russian prospects at bantamweight. Nurmagomedov comes in with far more hype here as brother and training partner of Khabib Numagomedov. He’s undefeated at 12-0 and a creative striker with excellent footwork. He’s developed as a wrestler as well, but he prefers to mostly fight on the feet where he usually overwhelms his opponents with speed and volume. The line definitely feels too wide here as Morozov packs a lot of punch for a bantamweight and Nurmagomedov is still mostly unproven. Morozov is a powerful counter-striker, but it’s true his grappling does leave a lot to be desired. If Nurmagomedov has any issues beating Morozov on the feet here, he should be able to drag him down and control position on the mat. Again, the price is a bit inflated as Morozov is the more experienced fighter and carries heavier hands. I just don’t see him keeping up with Umar for a full fifteen minutes. Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
  • GB: Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision

Mike Davis -170 (DK $8800, FD $20) vs Mason Jones +140 (DK $7400, FD $11)

  • Anthony: This should be an excellent fight at lightweight between Mike Davis and UFC debutant Mason Jones. There has been some hype building around Jones over at Cage Warriors where in 2020 he was successful in claiming the lightweight and welterweight belts, vacated by Jai Herbert and Nicolas Dalby. He has excellent boxing and a whole lot of power for a fighter at lightweight. The reason I won’t be loading up on Jones in this spot though is due to the power coming back from Davis. I do not consider his resume all that impressive, but Davis certainly poses a major threat to the newcomer’s untested chin. I could see either guy getting dropped in this matchup but over the course of fifteen minutes I favor the more technical striker Jones. There seems to be a ton of DFS value on Jones in this spot as a win likely places him in the optimal lineup. He opened as a very large underdog, but the money has all come in on his side. I would not be surprised to see him highly owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel as a result. Mason Jones by Round Two KO
  • Nick: This is an outstanding match-up between two up-and-comers at lightweight. Mason Jones has been tearing through the Cage Warriors roster. He carries a blackbelt in BJJ, Judo, and kickboxing. He’s a very well-rounded fighter with no singular standout skill, but he’s shown finishing ability against a decent level of regional competition. Jones is the current lightweight and welterweight Cage Warriors champion. He generally does a good job diversifying his strikes. Jones sometimes leaves himself open to counter-shots as his aggressive style isn’t matched by technical prowess, but he is advanced enough as a boxer to hang with a good chunk of this division. Mike Davis showed serious toughness in his Contender Series loss against Sodiq Yusuff. Yusuff is considered the class of the division, and Davis held his own for fifteen minutes while landing some serious combos on Yusuff along the way. Mike Davis has extremely underrated boxing ability. He mixes in shots to the body to set up his head strikes and he uses feints well to trap his opponents. Jones is going to be more than willing to engage in a vicious striking affair here, but Davis has a considerable power advantage. If Jones is going to pull out the upset victory, he needs to come in with a measured approach and avoid the heavy hands of Davis where possible. Jones’ one true advantage here will be in the grappling department. If he can score an early takedown and set the tone, I could definitely see him snatching Davis’ neck and pulling off the upset. I want both sides of this fight for DFS purposes as both of these guys are capable of winning in spectacular fashion. My confidence is very low in this one as this is a considerable step up for Jones, but I’m siding with the underdog. Mason Jones by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Mason Jones by Round One Submission

Francisco Figueiredo -160 (DK $8500, FD $19) vs Jerome Rivera +130 (DK $7700, FD $13)

  • Anthony: Next on the card is a fight at flyweight between Francisco Figueiredo and Jerome Rivera. Yes, once more on this card we have a champion’s brother debuting in the UFC, this time the two-year junior of the current champ Deiveson. From what I have seen out of this Figueiredo, there is still a long way to go before he is dominating this division. Wallid Ismail continues to grow his camp of Brazilian stars and the promotion will happily toss Figueiredo a few easy fights to get the ball rolling as a favor for him and the champion. Rivera is a live opponent though. I could absolutely see Rivera taking this fight on the scorecards, but after seeing him knocked out by Tyson Nam at bantamweight I have grown too concerned about his chin. Figueiredo has fought before at 135 pounds but seemed to have a seamless cut here. I am taking him to win by knockout over Rivera but this is probably my least confident pick, which says quite a lot on a fourteen fight card. Francisco Figueiredo by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Francisco is the brother of Deiveson Figueiredo. He fights utilizing a similar club-and-sub style, but he’s not nearly as explosive or powerful. Figueiredo, like his brother, is willing to stand and swing. He’s not as technically sound but does have strong counterpunching instincts and he has shown a finishing ability against low level competition. Jerome Rivera is a decent striker in his own right, but he relies heavily on his ground-game. Seven of his ten professional wins have come by way of submission. Rivera is likely going to be the more active and aggressive striker here, which should be enough to give Figueiredo trouble as this fight goes on. Both of these guys appear to be decent on the feet and on the mat, but Rivera has been tested by a much higher level of competition to this point as he came up through the LFA ranks as Figueiredo came up through Jungle Fights. By most accounts, this is one of the more difficult fights on the card to call. Neither of these guys seems to be UFC level and neither really has one breakaway skill. Still, I’m going to side with the value of underdog. I feel the line has steamed a bit too far in favor of Figueiredo off his last name alone. I’ll have shares of both sides of this fight for DFS as there are so many questions around it, but Rivera is the more impressive fighter on film. Jerome Rivera by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Jerome Rivera by Decision

Dalcha Lungiambula -150 (DK $8600, FD $16) vs Markus Perez +120 (DK $7600, FD $15)

  • Anthony: At middleweight we will see Dalcha Lungiambula take on Markus Perez here. This is a short notice fight for Perez who steps up in place of Isi Fitikefu for this bout. Prior to that booking I was ready to jump on Lungiambula as a large underdog versus Karl Roberson. Now I am even more excited to bet him here against the very streaky Perez. Lungiambula made the move down from light heavyweight and looks to be in excellent shape here at 185 pounds. He carries a lot of power and should have no issue moving forward on Perez in this bout. After seeing Perez dropped and finished by former welterweight Dricus Du Plessis, I really doubt his chin can withstand a clean shot from Lungiambula. He has a chance to perhaps grapple his way to victory in the late stages of this bout, but first he must survive an onslaught from Dalcha in the opening round. This is one of my more confident picks on the card and I play that I want a lot of when building my DFS lineups. $16 for Lungiambula is crazy on FanDuel considering his ceiling with a first-round finish. Dalcha Lungiambula by Round One KO
  • Nick: These are two fairly well-rounded fighters, but both of these guys have holes in their respective games. Perez tends to put himself into danger, especially in striking exchanges. His aggressive style can be fun to watch, but when he throws caution to the wind it more often than not leaves him in the Loss column. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss and there are some concerns he’s jumping back into action too quickly here. Lungiambula comes in with questions about his ability to make weight as well as his gas tank. He looked fine at weigh-ins for this fight, but if he can’t end things early there’s a good chance he starts to fall apart in the later rounds. He’s a monster in terms of his physical frame, but his excessive muscle makes it difficult to stay fresh as the fight wears on. Perez has solid BJJ, but Lungiambula has excellent defensive wrestling as a decorated Judo blackbelt. He is definitely a live dog here if he can take this fight to the mat, but I have trouble expecting he can before he gets caught. Perez is tough, but I don’t see him keeping Lungiambula off him for long. Lungiambula has enough power and explosiveness to get Perez early in this one. The line feels accurate here as Perez is live for a submission, but I’m siding with the favorite. Dalcha Lungiambula by Round One KO
  • GB: Dalcha Lungiambula by Round One KO

Su Mudaerji -500 (DK $9300, FD $23) vs Zarrukh Adashev +350 (DK $6900, FD $8)

  • Anthony: This flyweight bout seems rather simple to call as Su Mudaerji will face off against Zarrukh Adashev. This is a striker versus striker matchup and I think Mudaerji is the clearly superior of the two. He has a ridiculous size and reach advantage in this fight and we saw him easily dispose of Malcolm Gordon in his last time out. I believe that Gordon is not really a UFC talent, but the same can be said about Adashev at this point in his career. His professional record is just 3-2 and he was completely outclassed in his most recent bout against Tyson Nam. I think that we likely see these two replicate their most recent performances, and that means another quick knockout for Mudaerji here. Su Mudaerji by Round One KO
  • Nick: Su Mudaerji coming off an impressive KO win over Malcolm Gordon. He has outstanding striking ability, backed by a ridiculous 72-inch reach which is unheard of at flyweight. Adashev is coming off a KO loss to Tyson Nam on short notice. He is an established kickboxer, but he’s very one-dimensional and he’s likely fighting at the UFC level prematurely as his skills are still developing. It feels like the UFC is hoping to build Mudaerji’s stock here as China has a massive market and his success correlates with their popularity there. The line is likely a bit too wide here considering Adashev is a capable striker. However, Mudaerji’s reach should be enough for him to stay in control. Adashev should look better than he did the last time out, but this is Mudaerji’s fight to lose. This is only Adashev’s sixth MMA fight and he’s in for a tough go of it against one of the divisions more exciting up-and-comers. If Mudaerji’s wants he could also take this fight to the mat. He struggles against superior grapplers, but Adashev has really only developed his kickboxing and Mudaerji is becoming more and more well-rounded as he continues to train and develop. Really, no matter where this fight goes I expect Mudaerji to be in control. Su Mudaerji by Round Two KO
  • GB: Su Mudaerji by Round Three KO

Ricky Simón -500 (DK $9400, FD $21) vs Gaetano Pirrello +350 (DK $6800, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Up next is an interesting bantamweight fight between Ricky Simon and Gaetano Pirrello. This is a short notice matchup for Pirrello who makes his UFC debut here after over twenty professional fights. On ten days’ notice I do not expect to see him prepared for the wrestling heavy attack of Simon. In past fights Pirrello has been taken down and controlled so I suspect we see that exact same game plan employed by Simon in this matchup. There is not a lot of room for error here for Pirrello but he does have the striking to at least compete with Simon in the stand up. I do not want to bet any of my money on Simon at this price tag but think he is the clear favorite for a reason in this spot. I will be firing up Simon in plenty of my DFS builds as his high takedown volume provides one of the highest floors on this slate. Ricky Simon by Decision
  • Nick: Pirrello is a late replacement for Brian Kelleher here, he’s taking this fight on short notice. While his striking does seem to be UFC level, his grappling presents a major hole in his game. That’s likely to be his downfall here against a wrestling-based fighter in Ricky Simon. Simon has been an underachiever,  but he’s still the class of this division. Pirrello could win the striking exchanges, but Simon should significantly outclass him on the mat. If Simon makes the mistake of standing and swining with Pirrello he could find himself on the wrong end of an upset here. I just don’t see that happening. Ricky Simon by Decision
  • GB: Ricky Simon by Decision

Tom Breese -160 (DK $8700, FD $19) vs Omari Akhmedov +130 (DK $7500, FD $13)

  • Anthony: The featured bout should be a good one at middleweight between Tom Breese and Omari Akhmedov. Breese really impressed me with a finish by jab against K.B. Bhullar in his last time out. That win earned him an extra $50,000 and a lot of fans going forward, but I think he is being overvalued quite a bit in this spot as a result. Akhmedov fought a very back and forth bout with Chris Weidman in his last appearance. He was able to produce a strong second round but ultimately got beat in the end by Weidman’s American wrestling. Now he is fighting a striker who is far more vulnerable on the mat and whose size likely makes Akhmedov’s night at the office a bit easier. Having the lower center of gravity should allow Akhmedov to secure cleaner takedowns while exerting far less energy. I think he can work his way to a rather convincing decision victory as long as he keeps this fight on the mat. Breese certainly has knockout power but Akhmedov has not been finished since fighting at 170 pounds. I like him a lot in this spot as an underdog bet and DFS value play. Omari Akhmedov by Decision
  • Nick: Breese is an excellent boxer. He has very crisp and precise striking with impressive range management. Breese also has a solid chin and pushes a solid pace, but he’s had issues with the mental aspect of the sport both in and out of the cage. He seems to be getting those issues under control, so this should be a great fight against a tough opponent in Akhmedov. Akhmedov is coming off a tough loss to Chris Weidman where he was controlled on the mat for most of the fight. That was a rare instance where Akhmedov didn’t have a grappling advantage, but I expect him to return to that gameplan here against the striker Breese. Breese has a decent 75 percent takedown defense, but Akhmedov can be relentless. I expect Breese to win most striking exchanges, but I have trouble expecting him to stay on his feet long enough to take this on the scorecards. This is a very close match-up that I could definitely see going either way. However, I’m siding with the value on the underdog in this spot. He should be able to strike just well enough to get his to the mat where he’s going to excel. Omari Akhmedov by Decision
  • GB: Tom Breese by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 12:00pm EST

Lerone Murphy -350 (DK $9200, FD $22) vs Douglas Andrade +265 (DK $7000, FD $9)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with a fight showcasing Lerone Murphy against Douglas Silva de Andrade at featherweight. This is really a feeder fight for Murphy who the UFC would like to build up after already impressive performances versus Zubaira Tukhugov and Ricardo Ramos. He has really good striking and a significant reach advantage here in this matchup. However, I am not buying into all the hype at such a ridiculous price tag. Murphy cashed nicely as a dog for me his last time out but I refuse to lay my money on him here against a dangerous opponent like Andrade. We saw Murphy dropped with one punch in his fight against Tukhugov and I think Andrade may carry even more power than that, with a better finishing ability. The former bantamweight seems to be in excellent shape and even if he falls short of a flash knockout I like his chances to beat Murphy over the course of fifteen minutes. At even odds Murphy would clearly be the pick but I am throwing a dart here with Andrade as a such a significant underdog. His three career losses are against extremely talented competition. Douglas Andrade by Round One KO
  • Nick: Andrade is a brawler with a lot of power in his strikes. He’s very athletic, but he hasn’t shown any standout skill outside of his willingness to eat strikes in order to throw them. He’s athletic, but he’s running into an even more athletic competitor in Murphy here who is riding some nice momentum heading into this one. Murphy is a well-rounded fighter with impressive speed and an excellent gas tank. He’s been impressive in the UFC so far in a Draw against Zubaira Tukhugov as well as in his KO victory over Ricardo Ramos his last time out. He’s a gifted striker with enough grappling ability both offensively and defensively to dictate where this one goes. Murphy will benefit from a 5-inch reach advantage here and while Andrade should be able to land on occasion, Murphy’s distance management will be the difference over the course of three rounds. Murphy is effective enough in his striking that he should be able to get this fight to the ground if he needs to. This is a closer bout than the line indicates, but Murphy is the play. Lerone Murphy by Decision
  • GB: Lerone Murphy by Round One KO

Tyson Nam -150 (DK $8400, FD $17) vs Matt Schnell +120 (DK $7800, FD $14)

  • Anthony: Next on the card is a flyweight bout between Matt Schnell and Tyson Nam. This fight has been a while in the making after Schnell botching the weight cut in their first matchup and withdrawing prior to their second. He seemed to make weight without much issue yesterday, but I do not think the delay changes this fight’s outcome. Nam clearly has knockout power as evidenced by his two previous wins, which took place at bantamweight. Down at 125 pounds there are not many fighters that can match him punch for punch and that same issue arises for Schnell here. If Schnell fights smart, he will rely on his BJJ and look for the takedown very early in this bout. However, throughout his career Nam has only improved his takedown defense. If he is able to stuff a shot and keep this thing standing, I have no doubt Nam turns Schnell’s lights out the same way he was able to against Jerome Rivera and Zarrukh Adashev. This is not my most confident pick but I am planning to bet on Nam here at what I perceive to be an excellent price. Tyson Nam by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Tyson Nam has been fighting at 135, but he has successfully cut to 125 pounds for this one. Nam is primarily a striker. He is going to have above average power for this division and he does a good job setting up his shots with feints and leg kicks. Schnell is an outstanding grappler, but he tends to stand and swing with superior strikers more often than he should. It’s going to be key for him here to take Nam to the mat, but Nam has shown excellent takedown defense with a ridiculous 100% defense rate to date in the UFC. Schnell was KO’d in each of his last three losses. In interviews Schnell has said he wants to stand and strike with Nam. If he stays true to this game-plan, his night is going to end early. Schnell is a live dog here as his grappling is next level if he decides to lean on that facet of the game. I just can’t trust his Fight IQ here. Tyson Nam by Round One KO
  • GB: Tyson Nam by Round One KO

Viviane Araujo -325 (DK $9100, FD $20) vs Roxanne Modafferi +250 (DK $7100, FD $9)

  • Anthony: Here is another women’s flyweight bout between Viviane Araujo and Roxanne Modafferi. We saw Araujo really cruise to a  victory over Montana De La Rosa in her last fight and while that name may not be all that impressive, the performance really was. After being lined a -200 for that bout I am very surprised to see her as such a large favorite here against Modafferi who has cashed as a huge underdog plenty of times before. My pick in this spot is Araujo being she is the superior striker. On the scale she looked very healthy and I believe if brought to the mat she can power her way back into the standup. However, Modafferi has appeal a DFS play given her high scoring upside in the past. If you are running multiple lineups you can certainly give either of these girls the nod. Viviane Araujo by Decision
  • Nick: Modafferi is going to be at an advantage here if she can take this one to the mat. She does a good job using her size and strength to control position, but her offensive grappling does leave a lot to be desired. Even when she wins grappling exchanges, she doesn’t usually do enough damage to slow down her opponent. Still, if she can frustrate Araujo she should be able to close the skill gap on the feet. When this fight is on the feet, Araujo should be able to box circles around Modafferi. Roxanne is tough and will keep coming forward, but she’s nowhere near the level of striker that Araujo is. The issue for Modafferi here is that Araujo has better than a 90 percent takedown defense. This is a fight likely to take place on the feet where Araujo is the far more technical and developed striker. The price is ridiculous on this fight and all the value is on Modafferi. Still, I have to side with the favorite. I expect her to keep this fight on the feet long enough to win over the judges. Viviane Araujo by Decision
  • GB: Roxanne Modafferi by Decision

Ike Villanueva -120 (DK 8200, FD $17) vs Vinicius Moreira -110 (DK $8000, FD $14)

  • Anthony: The featured bout pits light heavyweight Ike Villanueva against Vinicius Moreira. On a fourteen-fight card you are bound to have a few bad matchups, and this is certainly one of them. Why this is so high up the card certainly illudes me. The loser of this fight will certainly be cut from the UFC after what will be a winless streak in the promotion of either three or four. Moreira enters with three consecutive losses that were not at all close. He has a chance in this fight to take down Villanueva and get a submission, but I feel like that won’t be the case given Ike’s power and likely ability to keep things at range. I side with Villanueva given his KO upside and for the fact he had his hand raised far more recently, but that is really all I can say. Both of these dudes are cans and I do not plan on betting a single cent on either of them. Ike Villanueva by Round One KO
  • Nick: By most accounts, these are two of the worst fighters on the UFC roster. Whoever loses this fight is extremely likely to get cut soon afterwards. Villanueva has knockout power, but his striking still seems underdeveloped. If he doesn’t land his power shots early, he tends to fall away from technicality which usually ends in disaster. Moreira has a solid ground game as eight of his nine professional victories have come via submission. He’s a BJJ black belt, but he doesn’t really have the wrestling ability required to drag most opponents to the mat. He’s terrible on the feet and he usually ends on the wrong end of most striking exchanges. This fight is going to go either one of two ways; either Villanueva Wins via knockout, or Moreira wins via submission. Since both of these guys have finishing upside they’re viable DFS plays. My confidence level is low for this one, but I’m siding with the favorite. Ike Villanueva by Round One KO
  • GB: Ike Villanueva by Round One KO

Mounir Lazzez -260 (DK $9000, FD $20) vs Warlley Alves +200 (DK $7200, FD $10)

  • Anthony: The co-main event takes place at welterweight between Mounir Lazzez and Warlley Alves. This feels like a matchup handpicked for Lazzez to find success as he fights in his corner of the world during one of the biggest fight weeks this year. Alves has very rudimentary striking and against a guy as technically proficient from range as Lazzez, I am expecting we see him get completely lit up. We saw Lazzez put on a masterful performance against Abdul Razak Alhassan and fighting a similar fight should result in a similar outcome for him here. Alves has dangerous grappling, but we have not seen it in quite some time, and I cannot factor that into a prediction especially with Lazzez training his ground game in the meantime. While I like Lazzez here to get the win and finish, I am just a bit hesitant to load up on him at this price tag. Compare his odds to other high-priced fighters on the slate and you will see why he may not be the best place to allocate all this salary. Mounir Lazzez by Round Two KO
  • Nick: This should be a decent scrap at Welterweight. Alves is a well-rounded fighter, but his career certainly seems to be on the decline. He’s a strong grappler with effective BJJ, but his gas tank has been depleting so at this point in his career he seems most content to stand and strike. Lazzez has a lot of momentum coming off a huge upset victory over Abdul Razak Alhassan in his UFC debut. He ate a lot of hard shots in that one, showed an outstanding chin and a fairly high Fight IQ for a fighter making their debut. Lazzez has a long frame for this division. He showed a solid knowledge of range in his debut and in this spot, he’ll have a decent reach advantage in this one and I expect him to use it to keep Alves at bay. Lazzez will be fighting close to home in this one as he trains out of Team Nogueira Dubai. By not having to travel, he’ll definitely have an advantage over Alves who is traveling in from Brazil. Just knowing how tough Alves is, the line does feel a bit too wide here. Still, I’m siding with the favorite to get it done. He has a high ceiling in DFS if you are willing to pay his price tag. Mounir Lazzez by Round Two KO
  • GB: Mounir Lazzez by Round Two KO

Neil Magny -150 (DK $8300, FD $18) vs Michael Chiesa +120 (DK $7900, FD $15)

  • Anthony: We finally arrive at the welterweight main event between Neil Magny and Michael Chiesa. I am a very big Neil Magny fan. While his fighting style may come off as boring to some, I very much enjoy watching him use range and pressure to melt opponents. He is likely going to cause a lot of problems for Chiesa on the feet given the five-inch reach advantage he enjoys in this matchup. Magny’s training at Elevation Fight Team always has him prepared to go five rounds with ease and I think we see him pick up the pace as this fight wears on. In the early rounds he will utilize his striking from afar, catching Chiesa on the end of his shots and keeping him away using push kicks and jabs. Chiesa is an extremely dangerous grappler, but he is rather one dimensional on his feet. I do not think Chiesa wraps up Magny in this fight unless he can first close the distance and push him up against the cage. Magny likely has the presence of mind to control the center of the octagon here. He can perhaps pressure Chiesa on the cage himself or grind him out in grappling positions later in this fight, but at the start while they are dry Magny will be sure Chiesa does not touch him. The chokes of Chiesa are a major concern, but after the first two rounds this fight should be all Neil Magny. I am betting heavy on the Haitian Sensation in this matchup. Expect him to cruise to a victory here. Neil Magny by Decision
  • Nick: The styles here suggest this isn’t the most spectacular main event, but there is no denying it’s a high-level match-up. Both of these guys are coming off three straight victories. They’re both ranked at welterweight and they each bring a lot of skill to the octagon. Magny is coming off an impressive win over a legend in Robbie Lawler. He’s been building serious momentum ever since he took 16 months off after falling to Santiago Ponzinibbio – winning three straight since that loss. Magny’s greatest strength is his outstanding cardio. He trains with Elevation Fight Team and I expect he has zero issues remaining somewhat effective if this fight gets into the later rounds. Chiesa is one of the more underrated grapplers in the UFC. He’s coming off an outstanding win in which he out-grappled RDA, and it seems likely he’s going to want this fight to hit the mat. Michael Chiesa has an outstanding wrestling base that relies on body-lock style takedowns and a creative submission game. Magny usually gets a lot of work done in the clinch, but that could be tough against Chiesa in this spot. Chiesa’s pressure-wrestling style can force Magny into tough positions, and his body-lock takedown style can also be relied on if Magny tries to get in close against him. It’s notable that half of Magny’s eight professional losses have come via submission. Chiesa’s stand-up continues to improve, but he’d be wise to take this fight to the mat early and often. He’s faced more technical strikers than Magny before, but Magny’s length and pressure makes him a unique test here. I could really see this fight going either way, especially if Magny can weather Chiesa’s pressure early. I feel Magny is going to have trouble here as he sports just a 59 percent takedown defense. Chiesa averages nearly four takedowns per fifteen minutes and his offensive grappling is outstanding once he gets there. I’ll have shares of both fighters for DFS purpose, but I think Chiesa has the clearer path to victory. Chiesa should find the position he needs over the course of five rounds. Michael Chiesa by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Michael Chiesa by Round Four Submission

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice