UFC 262: Oliveira vs Chandler – 5.15.2021 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

104

Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 262: Oliveira vs Chandler. Tonight we will see the new UFC Lightweight Champion of the world crowned in front of 17,000 fans in Houston! Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values control time and reversals. This new year, DraftKings has also added a quick win bonus for victories in the first minute as well as scoring for non-significant strikes. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value. Optimal GPP builds very rarely stack the same fight but it can be a viable strategy in cash games.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses if you want to bet on any of these picks!

If you are looking for even more UFC content, be sure to also check out Daily Play Action on YouTube where we have begun streaming breakdowns of most cards.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 107-71-2 (Last Year 223-145-6)
  • Nick: 106-72-2 (Last Year 235-133-6)
  • GB: 97-81-2 (Last Year 216-152-6)

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 10:00 AM EST 5-15-2021

Early Prelims- Start 6:30pm EST

Christos Giagos -210 (DK $9100, FD $23) vs Sean Soriano +170 (DK $7100, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Our card opens with a bout at lightweight between Christos Giagos and Sean Soriano. This is a short notice matchup after Giagos’ initial opponent Joel Alvarez was forced to withdraw. Giagos was a moderate underdog for that tilt but now is favored against the returning Sean Soriano. An 0-3 skid under the UFC banner saw Soriano cut in 2015, the year after his debut. He has since worked his way back into the promotion but I fear he is stepping into the cage with a bit too much to handle. Giagos has notoriously bad cardio in the latter half of his fights but puts on a dominating pace for the first seven or eight minutes. Against somebody that has been on the regional scene for quite some time I see Giagos doing better than usual in the early going. Soriano is a bit intimidating when fights are mostly contested on the feet, but he lacks the size here to really keep Giagos away from him. Hopefully the gas tank is not a major issue as I expect the favorite to get things done inside the distance to start off this card. Christos Giagos by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Christos Giagos pushes a serious pace, he has excellent takedown entries and he does a good job avoiding damage as he absorbs less than three strikes per minute. He has faced a dramatically higher level than of competition than Soriano here lately, but Soriano is more experienced than some might expect. He was previously cut from the promotion but he has made his way back and is now coming off three consecutive wins on the regional circuit. He’s a highly technical kickboxer, but he tends to struggle against grapplers with four of his professional losses coming by way of submission. If this fight takes place on the feet, I could see Soriano having a lot of success. However, it seems far more likely that Giagos leans on his distinct grappling advantage to control where this one goes. Soriano is taking this fight on short notice and he has just a 55 percent takedown defense. Giagos averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes. He has a clear path to victory here so while I’m not loving the price, I do see him as the rightful favorite. I like Giagos’ upside a lot for DFS as he’s likely to score takedowns and work for a finish. Christos Giagos by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Christos Giagos by Decision

Tucker Lutz -120 (DK $8300, FD $16) vs Kevin Aguilar +100 (DK $7900, FD $13)

  • Anthony: This featherweight bout should be a good one as Tucker Lutz takes on Kevin Aguilar. It is a must win situation for Aguilar who has dropped three straight fights. However, the losses really are not that bad of stains on Aguilar’s record. He is both a Texas native and current resident, likely feeding off the home crowd here. When it comes to striking I see him looking solid against Lutz, putting together good combinations and landing a lot more damaging shots. In the limited film I watched on Lutz I saw poor defense and wonder if Aguilar can capitalize on that in this matchup. Aguilar is susceptible to opponents’ wrestling attacks, but Lutz is not one to shoot very much and it is unlikely Aguilar struggles now back at his natural weight. It is a close fight but I lean the way of Aguilar ever so slightly given the advantage he possesses on the feet. Kevin Aguilar by Round Three KO
  • Nick: Kevin Aguilar is coming off three consecutive losses and he’d likely be cut from the promotion with another one here. He fell to tough competition in Charles Rosa, Zubaira Tukhugov and Dan Ige. He really hasn’t shown the type of standout skills or consistency it takes to succeed in the UFC. Tucker Lutz is coming off a solid Contender Series win over Sherrad Blackledge. He has a powerful striking base and throws a lot of shots off his lead leg. He does a good job stringing together combinations, but he also seems to take excessive damage against other powerful strikers. Aguilar throws a lot of volume and he has underrated power in his strikes. He can mix in leg kicks here against a fighter in Lutz whose defense leaves a lot to be desired. Aguilar’s greatest strength standing is definitely his jab. I expect him to pepper Lutz with it to keep him at range and mostly pick him apart on the feet. If this fight hits the mat, I give the slight edge to Aguilar who has shown solid scrambling ability against more accomplished grapplers than Lutz. It also benefits Aguilar that his fight is in front of his home crowd. The judges in Texas are known as being notoriously biased at times. I could see this one going either way, but Lutz is still mostly an unproven commodity. I expect Aguilar to edge him out no matter where this one goes. I’ll hedge a bit on Lutz for DFS purpose, but I’m taking the underdog here. Kevin Aguilar by Decision
  • GB: Tucker Lutz by Decision

Gina Mazany -220 (DK $9300, FD $22) vs Priscila Cachoeira +175 (DK $6900, FD $9)

  • Anthony: Here we have the first of three women’s flyweight bouts, a tilt between Gina Mazany and Priscila Cachoeira. Mazany being better than a -200 favorite against anybody is wrong. I barely was confident picking her at a -185 against Rachel Ostovich, yet now she faces an opponent that poses a much larger threat. Cachoeira is coming off a knockout of Shauna Dobson in under a minute. She has very heavy hands and the ability to really hurt the girls locked in the cage with her. The defensive metrics look bad for Cachoeira on paper but let us not forget the beating she endured in her UFC debut against now champion Valentina Shevchenko. She still yields a rather healthy 70 percent takedown defense and by stuffing the shots of Mazany she could very well win this fight. Of Mazany’s four losses, three have come by finish in the first round. Cachoeira has a lot of upside in this spot not only to score takedown defenses and pay off a $9 price tag, but to walk away the victor. Do not put your hard-earned money on Mazany even if you believe she gets the job done, and don’t expect the dog to win just because the three of us are picking her. Priscila Cachoeira by Round One KO
  • Nick: Gina Mazany is coming off her first UFC Win since 2017 over Racael Ostovich. She recently moved to Missouri to begin training at Glory MMA under the tutelage of James Krause. Krause is one of the more highly regarded coaches in the sport and it shows in Mazany who has continued improve. Mazany really has no one stand out skill, but she is fairly well-rounded and should be able to hang here regardless of where the fight goes. Cachoeira is going to be the better striker here. She’s more compact in her stance, she throws fairly effective combinations and does a good job using her volume to keep pressure on opponents. She can take a shot and while moving forward and puts enough volume on her opponents to eventually land power shots. The clearest path for Mazany here is to lean on her grappling against a superior striker in Cachoeira. That may be difficult here as Cachoeira has a solid 70 percent takedown defense. The line is far too wide here and I really don’t have much confidence in either fighter. However, I see Cachoeira as the more dangerous of the two in this spot. Given my general concerns about her cardio, I probably won’t overinvest. However, I like the value on the underdog. Priscila Cachoeira by Round One KO
  • GB: Priscila Cachoeira by Decision

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Antonina Shevchenko -120 (DK $9000, FD $17) vs Andrea Lee +100 (DK $7000, FD $13)

  • Anthony: Antonina Shevchenko will take on Andrea Lee in a very fun flyweight fight next. The champion’s sister has been training like a title holder herself, representing Tiger Muay Thai with excellent striking and a very well-rounded attack. She is a great size for this division and the bigger fighter here today. Andrea Lee is a rather talented and high output striker as well, but really does not pose much of a power threat on the feet. She may throw more strikes than Shevchenko, but I seriously doubt she lands more. I give Antonina the advantage both standing and when grappling here. It seems like a matchup that can help raise her stock, put together by the UFC based on the three-fight losing streak of Lee. As the odds indicate it should be competitive, but I am backing Shevchenko rather confidently. Antonina Shevchenko by Decision
  • Nick: If this fight stays on the feet, Shevchenko is likely to have the advantage. Fighting out of Tiger Muy Thai, she has outstanding striking ability. She’s nowhere near her sister Valentina’s level, but she’s the more polished kickboxer in comparison to her opponent. Lee is certainly no slouch, but she doesn’t really have the power behind her shots that Shevchenko does. If this fight stays on the feet, I expect Shevchenko to start to pull away by causing the more noticeable damage. She has shown serious improvements in her grappling ability of late, including in her last fight against Ariane Lipski. She did an excellent job scoring timely takedowns and controlling position in that one against a dangerous submission threat in Lipski. If she decides to execute a similar game plan here, I expect her to win handily. Lee is a game opponent and she definitely has an advantage fighting in her home state of Texas. However, when it comes to technical ability Shevchenko should have her beat here. Antonina Shevchenko by Decision
  • GB: Antonina Shevchenko by Decision

Jamie Pickett -110 (DK $8100, FD $14) vs Jordan Wright -110 (DK $8100, FD $14)

  • Anthony: This middleweight tilt between Jordan Wright and Jamie Pickett has floated around even odds all week. Neither one of these fighters are easy to trust based on a variety of factors. For Wright, there is a question regarding durability having been finished by Anthony Hernandez and Joaquin Buckley. The level of competition outside of those fights is rather lackluster too, but I do think his victory over Ike Villanueva at light heavyweight holds some water. Pickett has similarly lost to his best competition and beaten rather weak opponents. He is very long with high output for this weight class, but Wright is just as big. I do not see Pickett doing well in this fight unless he really can keep Wright at the end of his strikes. Wright has been rather impressive in the clinch and likely carries more power than Pickett. I also give Wright the advantage if things are to hit the mat, but it really is a close fight that I do not want to bet heavily on. The winner should score well regardless of outcome so I recommend splitting exposures evenly given the great pricing for both on FanDuel and DraftKings. Jordan Wright by Round Two KO
  • Nick: We have an interesting match-up here between two very similar middleweights. Both Wright and Pickett are fairly tall for the division at 6’2”. They both prefer to fight on the feet and they’re both coming off tough losses at the end of 2020. Pickett throws consistent volume and power, but in doing so he seems to leave himself open to counter-shots. Wright is powerful and athletic, but he seems to fold when he’s met with adversity. This is definitely a lower-level match-up and one I could see going either way. Pickett is the better technical boxer who I expect to land more volume. Wright is the more powerful striker, but his chin is definitely a bit of a concern as his last two losses came via KO. My confidence is extremely low here, but I’m siding with the better overall technical game of Pickett. Jamie Pickett by Round Two KO
  • GB: Jamie Pickett by Round One KO

Mike Grundy -120 (DK $8200, FD $17) vs Lando Vannata +100 (DK $8000, FD $10)

  • Anthony: Next is a featherweight bout between Mike Grundy and Lando Vannata. It is a questionable drop to 145 pounds for Vannata who had been a career lightweight. Moves like this rarely pay off for fighters on the back nine and I do not like the decision by Vannata. Down ten pounds he will struggle even more with his defensive grappling, a hole that has been exploited by opponents many times before. Vannata has a 64 percent takedown defense and rarely does anything good on his back. Grundy is a powerful wrestler who will likely dump Vannata to the mat as often as possible here. I would absolutely give the advantage to Vannata is this were a kickboxing bout but I do not think you can trust him in particular this spot. Grundy found a lot of success early on the mat against Movsar Evloev. If he fights a smart gameplan I believe he wins this bout rather convincingly. Mike Grundy by Decision
  • Nick: Mike Grundy has a powerful wrestling base and is one of the more accomplished grapplers in this division. He’s coming off a tough decision loss to Mosvar Evloev, but he performed well in that fight against one of the more highly regarded prospects at featherweight. Lando Vannata is a hyper-aggressive fighter known for his willingness to brawl and eat damage to throw it. He likes to throw a lot of spinning attacks and at his best he’s capable of hanging with top level fighters. Vannata has really attempted to adopt a more heady and conservative approach as of late. While this change in styles could extend Vannata’s career, it makes it tougher for him to take over a fight and impose his will on opponents. Vannata has a decent wrestling base but cutting down to 145 for the first time in his career I have to question how well his cardio is going to hold up here. I expect Grundy to chain grapple here on his way to a convincing decision win. Vannata has a puncher’s chance here as he does pack a lot of power in his shots. However, stylistically this feels like a fight made for Grundy. Grundy is also one of my favorite plays for DFS. Mike Grundy by Decision
  • GB: Lando Vannata by Decision

Jacare Souza -130 (DK $7700, FD $15) vs Andre Muniz +110 (DK $8500, FD $14)

  • Anthony: The featured prelim will be a clash of Brazilians as Andre Muniz takes on Ronaldo Jacare Souza. Perhaps this is being set up as a passing of the torch between countrymen, but I still believe that Jacare is an opponent that can beat several guys ranked in the top fifteen at middleweight. The primary source of my confidence in this matchup is the grappling advantage that Jacare should absolutely still possess. He is a fourth degree BJJ black belt and a Judo black belt under Henrique Machado. We saw him dragging Kevin Holland to the mat with his pressure takedowns before being caught and finished in that bout. Muniz has some power, and a considerable reach-advantage in this fight. However, Jacare has always been an excellent striker as well and he likely holds that advantage in this matchup too. I was expecting Muniz to test himself on the mat with the legend and he confirmed during media day that was his plan. Jacare is far less willing to give up top position like his opponent and should be able to control this fight. He has the upside to potentially work through some positions and even get a finish in this spot. I will take advantage of the discount on him here after the most recent loss tanked his stock. Jacare Souza by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Souza just turned 41-years-old, but he’s still fighting at a very high level. Prior to his KO loss against Kevin Holland, his last was a close split decision loss to the current light heavyweight champion, Jan Blachowicz. He’s still one of the better offensive grapplers in the division and while he has lost speed he’s still extremely powerful on the feet. Andre Muniz is coming off a nice win over Bartosz Fabinski, but Fabinski has since been cut from the promotion. Most of Muniz’s success has come through his offensive grappling, but I don’t expect he’ll be able to have much success in that aspect of his game here against one of the best BJJ black belts ever to grace the division. Thirteen of Muniz’ twenty professional victories have come by way of submission. He hasn’t lost since 2016, but he really hasn’t seen competition even close to the level of Souza – especially when it comes to BJJ. Given he’s 41-years old I don’t want to overinvest on Jacare here. Still, I expect him to get back in the win column. Jacare Souza by Round Two KO
  • GB: Andre Muniz by Round Three KO

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Shane Burgos -155 (DK $8400, FD $20) vs Edson Barboza +130 (DK $7800, FD $12)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with a featherweight banger between Shane Burgos and Edson Barboza. These are two high volume strikers that love to push a pace and kickbox their opponents. They are each coming off impressive performances too with Burgos having an all-out war with Josh Emmett in June and Barboza disposing of Makwan Amirkhani last October. The two losses on Burgos’ resume are against the toughest competition he has faced, so Barboza will be an excellent measuring stick here to truly determine his ceiling. I really like the forward pressure that Burgos is able to employ and by crashing distance against Barboza, opponents can severely limit his arsenal of strikes. Burgos puts a lot of work into the body and has thrown north of 100 significant strikes in three consecutive bouts. I believe he has success here as long as he stays in Barboza’s face, not allowing the Brazilian to pick him apart from range. The 2-5 skid for Barboza contains a bad decision and some very tough opponents, but it is a concerning trend nonetheless. I am picking Burgos for these reasons but expect it to be one of the best fights all evening regardless of outcome. Shane Burgos by Decision
  • Nick: This is an excellent match-up with a serious chance to be awarded Fight of the Night. Burgos is a volume machine; he throws a ton of strikes and does a good job keeping his opponents guessing by mixing in body shots. He’s an outstanding boxer, and on fight day he’s a lot bigger than most of the other guys in the division. The one knock on Burgos is that likes to lean forward to bait opponents into strikes. He’s a fighter more than willing to take shots to throw them, which could spell trouble for him here against a highly technical boxer in Barboza. Prior to his win over Makwan Amirkhani, Barboza was coming off three straight losses. They all came against the class of the division in Justin Gaethje, Paul Felder and Dan Ige. Additionally, a lot of people thought Barboza should have been given the decisions against both Paul Felder and Dan Ige, as he lost both fights via split. Barboza does a good job using kicks to keep pressure on his opponents. He was an early adopter of the ever-popular leg-kick and he uses it more effectively than anyone on the roster. Burgos will come out strong here and I expect him to keep this fight close. However, I see Barboza’s more advanced technical ability being the difference over three rounds. I’m siding with the underdog here, but this is not a fight you want to miss. Edson Barboza by Decision
  • GB: Edson Barboza by Round Three KO

Katlyn Chookagian -130 (DK $8800, FD $19) vs Viviane Araujo +110 (DK $7400, FD $12)

  • Anthony: Next up is a women’s flyweight bout between Katlyn Chookagian and Viviane Araujo. Chookagian is a decision machine that you can really trust to sway a few judges if she can last the full fifteen minutes. Durability has never really been an issue for her, but recent losses to Valentina Shevchenko and Jessica Andrade resulted in her being finished with rather ease. Still, those are the best two flyweights in the world and Chookagian is solidly the third. This is a big step up in competition for Araujo and if she couldn’t pass the Jessica Eye test, I doubt she succeeds here. She has excellent footwork and very good entries, but the striking of Chookagian will pose here a lot of issues. Chookagian is the much taller of the two and excels while moving backwards. Perhaps Araujo can take her to the mat and find a win using her grappling, but I find myself leaning the way of the former title challenger. Katlyn Chookagian by Decision
  • Nick: Katlyn Chookagian is well-rounded with formidable point-striking style. She doesn’t cause a ton of damage but she fights smart, peppering opponents and letting the fight come to her. She’s most comfortable on the feet and has continued to show improvements over the past few years. Araujo is also going to be content to stand and trade here. She throws more volume and will likely land the more meaningful punches, but it seems lately that her cardio has been holding her back. Araujo will come out strong, but I expect her to start to fade as the fight wears on. Additionally, I view Chookagian as the more technically sound striker so the longer this fight goes the further she should be able to pull away on the scorecards. This should be a fun fight that takes place mostly on the feet, where Chookagian has the advantage. She’s a bit overpriced for DFS, but she should get it done here. Katlyn Chookagian by Decision
  • GB: Viviane Araujo by Decision

Matt Schnell -160 (DK $8900, FD $20) vs Rogerio Bontorin +130 (DK $7300, FD $11)

  • Anthony: Here we have a bantamweight bout between Matt Schnell and Rogerio Bontorin. It is a very exciting matchup based on the high output and volatile attack both of these guys often display. They both have done their best work at flyweight but gain the extra ten-pound allowance here. Bontorin is stepping in on rather short notice after a fighter far better than these both, Alex Perez, was scratched as Schnell’s initial opponent. He described it as difficult despite the bantamweight limit, having a hard cut to make 137 pounds as the last fighter to the scales yesterday. Bontorin is big, but rather undersized in this matchup giving up a five-inch reach advantage. In the larger cage here I expect Schnell to keep Bontorin at range and pick him apart from the outside. There is no reason for Schnell to get caught in a fire fight and it is likely best to engage in the grappling defensively rather than shooting on the Brazilian. His jiu jitsu is more than serviceable if things do hit the mat and I believe the size advantage will help him significantly there as well. I like Bontorin a lot but unfortunately will be fading him again here. It is too much of a risk after seeing his chin checked bad just two months ago. Matt Schnell by Decision
  • Nick: Schnell is coming off a hard-fought split decision win over Tyson Nam. He managed to avoid taking too much damage in that one, peppering Nam at range and effectively circling away from his power shots. Bontorin is extremely aggressive. He usually comes out firing, pushes a ridiculous pace and by most accounts has more power than the majority of the other flyweights. He’s solid on the feet, but his offensive grappling is his greatest strength as a BJJ black belt with eleven of his sixteen professional wins coming by way of submission. Bontorin is coming off a tough loss to Kai Kara-France where he was winning convincingly early. France came back and caught him with several clean strikes to finish the bout. Bontorin has a negative striking differential so if this fight stays on the feet, I expect Schnell to pick him apart at range. Additionally, I have trouble backing Bontorin here as he seemed to struggle mightily at weigh-ins missing the limit by a pound. If he can’t put Schnell away early, he’s going to fall behind. I’ll have DFS shares of Bontorin because he is live for the upset in this one. However, Schnell is the better prepared and more talented fighter here. Matt Schnell by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Matt Schnell by Round Two KO

Beneil Dariush -155 (DK $8600, FD $21) vs Tony Ferguson +130 (DK $7600, FD $13)

  • Anthony: The co-main event is a lightweight bout between fan favorite Tony Ferguson and Beneil Dariush. It is always going to be difficult to pick against El Cucuy, but this losing streak is such a parallel to the dominance we are used to seeing from him. I was correct in my assumption the surging Oliveira would get past him last December, but now another rising contender looks to build off his name. Dariush is one of the best fighters in this division and rides a six-fight winning streak of his own into this bout. His wins are very high quality and he has the striking and grappling balance to match Tony in any aspect of this fight. He is entering his prime and training at one of the hotter gyms on the scene, Kings MMA. I really like what I have seen out of Dariush in the leadup to this fight and just trust him more than I do Ferguson who has always been an enigma during camps. He admitted to training just a few hours of jiu jitsu prior to his previous tilt with Oliveira. I imagine we see him more aggressive than ever in this fight, but I know Dariush can work the takedowns just as well as Oliveira did. I also find it easier to side with the chin of Dariush rather than the 37-year-old El Cucuy when it comes to the striking exchanges. It should be a back-and-forth fight which the DFS prices really do not indicate. Dariush is the pick for me but I will certainly have exposure to Ferguson when building lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. Beneil Dariush by Decision
  • Nick: Ferguson is one of the most exciting fighters to watch in the UFC. He’s coming off back-to-back tough losses to Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje, but he’s still widely regarded as a potential top contender in this division. There’s a narrative surrounding this fight that if Ferguson loses here, he’s likely done as a contender. He apparently switched up his camp coming into this fight, but it’s tough to know what we’re going to get out of him. He seems to be in good spirits leading up into this match-up, but there’s really no denying his back is against the wall. Dariush is on a six-fight win streak and considered by many to be a dark horse title contender in this division. He has an outstanding ground game, but his striking has been what has UFC fans excited lately. He’s a highly technical kickboxer who effectively mixes in creative and timely spinning attacks. Dariush is hyper-aggressive so he sometimes leaves himself open to damage. He has been wobbled in many of his recent fights, but his chin does seem to hold up more often than not. This is another match-up with Fight of the Night potential, and a fight I could see going either way. However, I’m going to back Ferguson as an underdog here. I expect most of this fight to take place on the feet and while Dariush should look good early, I think Tony can weaponize his cardio late and find a KO. I’ll definitely have shares of both fighters for DFS purposes regardless. Tony Ferguson by Round Three KO
  • GB: Tony Ferguson by Round Two KO

Charles Oliveira -120 (DK $8700, FD $21) vs Michael Chandler +100 (DK $7500, FD $18)

  • Anthony: The main event will decide the new UFC Lightweight Champion of the world as Michael Chandler takes on Charles Oliveira in one of the best matchups on the calendar in 2021. Oliveira is a fighter who truly grew up inside the octagon. He owns the record for most submission victories in UFC history and has done nothing but win over the past three years. His eight-fight winning streak is impressive as is, but his last two performances against Kevin Lee and Tony Ferguson certainly prove he is worthy of title contention. There is no fighter currently on the roster posing a greater threat to opponents on the mat. That is certainly the stylistic draw here as Chandler has never been submitted in 27 professional fights. I completely underestimated him in his UFC debut, but still feel he is a level below Oliveira based on the competition he has faced. It has been over a decade of promotional experience for Oliveira, but just half a round for Chandler. He will struggle to wrestle Oliveira in this matchup. I expect we see Oliveira applying pressure to Chandler by utilizing his kicks and striking from range. There may be nobody who crashes distance better than Chandler, but it will be very difficult moving in on a more well-rounded opponent than his last. Ultimately, I see Oliveira getting the victory here inside the distance. It is a fight that certainly becomes more interesting as the rounds add up but these are two proven finishers. When it comes to DFS builds you have to play the numbers and on a slate with pricing mistakes like this I will certainly be overexposed to Chandler on DraftKings. Charles Oliveira should get his hand raised when all is said and done though. It will probably be by submission, but I think the knockout is just as likely. And new. Charles Oliveira by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: We have an excellent main event here for the vacant Lightweight Title. Oliveira is a third-degree black belt in BJJ, and pound-for-pound one of the best grapplers in the world. His striking has dramatically improved over the course of his career and he’s recently shown serious improvement in his ability to throw combinations. He’s coming off a dominant win over Tony Ferguson and he’s undeniable carrying a lot of momentum into this fight off eight consecutive victories. Michael Chandler is coming off an extremely impressive win in his UFC debut over Dan Hooker. Many expected him to wrestle in that spot, but he managed to overwhelm Hooker with his striking early and found an opening for the knockout. Before he began his career in MMA, Chandler was an accomplished NCAA Division I Wrestler. He’s going to be one of the better wrestlers in the lightweight division now that Khabib Nurmagomedov has retired. When this fight takes place on the feet, I expect Chandler to have an advantage in both power and speed. Oliveira does have a solid kicking game, but his striking is still a work in progress and while Chandler has been KO’d before, Oliveira isn’t the type to really test him in that realm. Another major reason for me backing Chandler here is the fact he’s never been submitted. Oliveira’s clearest path to victory is almost always via submission, but Chandler has outstanding hips and weight distribution as an extremely talented wrestler. I will have shares of Oliveira here because there’s no denying that this is a close match-up on paper. However, Chandler has been in similar spots before. I like that he does enough defensively to mostly negate Oliveira’s BJJ, and I expect him to find the Brazilian’s chin before this one is over. And new. Michael Chandler by Round Two KO
  • GB: Michael Chandler by Round Two KO

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice