Last week, I examined the minimum cash lines (amount of points needed in a contest to reach profit) for GPP contests over all of the three main slates in the DPA’s Bankroll Management 101: Contest Selection. What we learned was that the minimum amount of points needed to profit in GPP contests on the Sunday Main slate were much higher than what was needed on the other two slates. Let’s keep rolling with this conversation in our pursuit to find the PERFECT CONTEST!
Let’s start by breaking down last week’s stats. Below, you will find the easier to win – Double Up cash lines in the Thursday/Monday slate. I completely faded the Sunday Main Slate with the exception of Krallywood’s lineups because that’s essentially free money. Professor Krall boasts a ridiculous 75% success rate in cash games going into the Week 11 slate, so stay tuned for his optimized lineup to be released later on this week.
Thursday/Monday Slate Cash Lines:
Single Entry $5 double up – 120.26 needed to cash in a 2298 entry pool
Single Entry $25 double up – 116.34 needed to cash in a 827 entry pool
$2 Double up – 111.16 meeded to cash in a 1149 entry pool
Giant $5 double up – 106.50 needed to cash in a 5057 entry pool
Thursday/Monday GPP Min Cash Lines / Double Up Cash Lines / and Top Score:
150K Play-Action $3 (20 entry max) – 129.88 / 141.46 / 220.06 with 59453 entries
Hot Route $100 (2 entry max) – 127.66 / 127.66 / 167.20 with 77 entries
I was shocked to find that the single entry $5 double up was 15 points higher to cash than its big brother the Giant $5 Double Up. We are always told to play single entry contests to avoid DFS sharks, but maybe its the size of the contest that is the more important factor. The largest contest yielded the lowest cash line, and an absurdly low cash line at that.
When evaluating GPP contests, I suggest paying attention to the Hot Route $100 (2 entry max) for several reasons. To double your money in this high-dollar, small field, GPP (HDSFGPP), all you needed was to reach 127.66 DK points last week. In my opinion, that poses a very small difference from what most would consider the safest Double Up play on the board: the Single Entry $5 Double Up (120.26 cash line). I’ll take the 7 point spread between the Double Up scores in these two contests, and instead roll with the GPP contest and the upside that it possesses. In contrast, the 150K Play Action didn’t have a lot to offer as it had a higher minimum cash line, while the double up cash line and winning lineup was 50 points higher than the Hot Route. No Thank You! My only play action this week will be The Daily Play Action.
To summarize our findings: the smaller contest yielded the lower cash lines, and I would expect that any of the <100 entry, two entry max, $50 and up contests would yield similar results. You’re telling me that you don’t participate in DFS contests of $50 or higher? Good luck my friend! That’s a long slow painful death continuing to play small dollar large field GPP (SDLFGPP). The odds are not stacked in your favor as shown in the small sample size listed above.
Now that you have the facts to make better decisions, here our my recommendations for entries into the Thursday-Monday slate:
GPPs – Two entries in the $100 Hot Route
Cash Games – 100 entries in the Giant $5 double up and an additional $100 into the largest size pool Double Up that I can find.
On a closing note, I am pleased to announce that the DailyPlayAction will be hosting its first ever LIVE DK event in Virginia Beach, Virginia on December 10th. You can expect more details on our 1st Live Event to follow on the DPA website and social media platforms over the coming weeks.
Stay tuned for more GPP strategy and insight from Oaktown exclusively on the DailyPlayAction.