Welcome back Playmakers! Another week in the books. I hope you jumped onboard the Bubba Wallace prediction last week. That will forever be one of the best calls of my career. This week we head back to Charlotte. But this week on the track’s still relatively new Roval road course. The design highlights both the ability to get your car to turn and handle corners well, but also still need to be able to carry a lot of speed for the track’s straightaway section. In its short history The Roval has had some very exciting finishes, I’m sure we get more of the same this time around. Place differential has a little more value than dominator this week due to it being a road course and they have less laps than a more traditional track. Here’s a look at the drivers I feel have the best chance to be successful here:
Chase Elliott | 8th | 10,700DK | 14,500FD |
Chase comes into this race as the odds on favorite to win. He’s done really well here in the past. Notching 2 wins here already, I would be highly surprised if he doesn’t get the lead at some point and also have 20+ fast laps. This is a great piece to build around for any type of game. He should have very high ownership on both sites.
Denny Hamlin | 1st | 9500DK | 13,000FD |
Denny should lead the first portion of the race. He’s a good road course driver. I don’t know how long he will hold the lead. But the upside is there for him to pay off his salary and finish inside the top10.
Ryan Blaney | 6th | 9100DK | 8000FD |
Blaney has a win here. It was a bit fluky with 1st and 2nd wrecking each other on the last turn. He was in the position to capitalize, this is another spot where he should stay competitive all day. I don’t know if he will lead laps, but it’s worth a shot. I think this is actually an interesting spot because of pricing. Especially on FD. Blaney is a gpp option to lead laps or “dominate” a portion of this race. But his pricing is low enough that he actually has some cash game appeal. Unless he were to have some sort of crash damage or wreck out of the race, Blaney should contend for a top10 here. That wouldn’t be a bad score for the pricing at all. Even if he weren’t to lead laps. He is a great play on FD because of this, 8000 is just too cheap. Very solid on DK as well.
Kyle Larson | 10th | 10,300DK | 14,000FD |
Larson is always an option. He could win today. I’m leaning Chase over Larson but there’s not much difference in these two. I don’t want to completely fade Larson, I will have some combos of him and AJ Allmendinger. He’s just too good not to have some exposure to.
Martin Truex Jr | 10,100DK | 11,500FD |
AJ Allmendinger | 33rd | 11,200DK | 12,000FD |
AJ won the xfin race here yesterday. He’s won here 3 times actually. He should work his way up into the top10. There is a little risk that AJ as some sort of issue and doesn’t pay off his hefty price tag. But AJ is a road course ace. There’s not many drivers in the series who can match his skill level. He’s been damn good here too, so I like this play. I’m not opposed to fading him in some lines too. He should have pretty high ownership.
Kurt Busch | 13th | 8700DK | 10,500FD |
Kurt might not have the highest ceiling today. But this is a good spot. He’s shown to be damn good here and I really can’t see him finishing any lower than his starting spot. It would take him wrecking out I think. I don’t think nearly anyone uses him and for that reason I really like him as a gpp play. I also think he would be a nice piece for cash games cause you can be pretty confident he will do his job for you. He probably gets overlooked in cash games too. This is a great spot to get him low owned.
Ross Chastain | 27th | 9300DK | 9500 FD |
This feels a bit too expensive for Chastain. But he’s still worthy of consideration. Decent upside here. Should finish in the top20 at minimum. Top15 or so probably pats off his price tag. Not a priority because of price but a very solid option here.
Matt DiBennedetto | 30th | 7900DK | 8500FD|
Great spot here for Matty. He should be a top20 car. You aren’t paying too much for a decent ceiling play. He should be very popular today. For good reason. He would have to have a disaster of a race to not at least hit his avg floor here.
Tyler Reddick | 29th | 7800DK | 9000FD |
I love Reddick this week. He has a 2nd place finish here in xfin and a top10 here in cup. He is in a great spot to pay off his tag. I will have a lot of exposure here. He should be able to crack the top15-20 with a higher ceiling than that.
Chase Briscoe | 22nd | 7600DK | 9200FD |
I don’t think many know how good Briscoe is on road courses. He’s shown plenty of ability to do well in his career. His team is trending the wrong direction almost all season, but this sets up to be a decent spot to take a chance on him. I think he’s really only a gpp play. Probably a little overpriced on FD too. But definitely a option that most won’t consider. Low ownerships get a little boost when you know you are going to have Chase Elliot, Larson, or Allmendinger on your line. The guys who should be the highest owned.
Justin Haley | 38th | 7400DK | 4000FD |
This is very expensive on DK for a really terrible car. Haley is a solid driver and he’s shown some skills on road courses. The car is just plain awful though. I do think he can maybe finish in the top30. But it’s risky and you can get a much safer floor out of MattyD or Reddick for just a couple hundred more. So this is really a Gpp only play for me. Unless he fits your line perfectly I wouldn’t go out of my way to force him into lines. His cheap price on FD makes him more appealing over there so that you can possibly stack 3 of the largest salaries together.
Ryan Preece | 31st | 6000DK | 5500FD |
Preece is normally pretty disappointing. I don’t expect much here but he’s cheap enough to work into your line as your last driver on DK. You would be happy with anything inside the top23-25 or so. I’m not a huge fan but if you need a pure punt for gpp he’s worth a small percentage of ownership.
Cole Custer | 23rd | 5700DK | 7100FD |
This pricing on DK is very cheap. I wouldn’t have any interest otherwise, but this is a bit disrespectful. Custer is a top25 car almost every week. This track doesn’t setup as a great spot for him. But for 5700 I’m willing to give him a shot in a line or two because I know it’ll get me up to the combo of Chase Elliot and Allmendinger that I want or Larson and Allmendinger, etc. Be careful to not overexpose yourself if you do use him. His ceiling is not great in this spot.
Scott Heckert | 35th | 5900DK | 2500FD |
I don’t ever remember a 2500 price tag on FD. Let alone using him in a write up. Heckert does have a ton of road course experience though. He actually finished inside the top10 here for the 2019 xfin race. That car was not good, like today, he may have enough skill to get a top30 here though. I doubt anyone uses him because they probably have never heard of him. I’m not a huge fan or deep punts like this, but I will give him a go because there could be a few cars getting knocked out of this race. You would take 30th place. Use cautiously.