Below you will find the NBA Cheat Sheet system that I have built to help me cash at a 70% clip this season. Here at the Daily Play Action, our goal is to take you from the grey to the green with our data-driven breakdowns and analysis.
To qualify for the cheat sheet, a player must have a positive DVP (Defense Vs. Position: how a team defends each position) match up (Top 13), and opportunity (20 plus Projected minutes).
The baseline projection for each position is calculated using the average DK points scored by the player, and is then multiplied by that player’s expected minutes.
The Plus/Minus is explained by how far off the baseline projection is from 6x value (The 6x value system projects you to hit at least 300 points if each player hits value, which is almost a guaranteed cash line). This model indicates that each player will have to make up “X” DraftKings Points per Minute to cover the value spread.
NBA CHEAT SHEET 2/7/2018
*=assuming Chandler sits on b2b
PG Victor Oladipo | Indiana Pacers | $8,600
Victor Oladipo is the DAILY PLAY ACTION PLAY OF THE NIGHT! Stuff him into your lineups and don’t think twice about it. Not only has Oladipo’s tag come down from the sky high $9,000’s, he also has the best matchup for a Guard on any night, let alone tonight. With Darren Collison sidelined, Oladipo’s usage is likely to be enormous. With Collison and Oladipo out, we saw Stephenson take the primary ball handling roll and Joseph play off-ball, much as Cory did in Toronto’s 3 guard set last year. Oladipo should take that role over now that he’s back and he has filled in quite admirably in the past with Collison off the floor. With Collison off the floor, Oladipo sees a huge .10 boost in PPM too 1.29. It doesn’t seem like a huge boost but it actually raises his baseline projection by 4 DK points! This is due to the fact that Oladipo’s usage climbs to Harden-esque levels (near 35%) without Collison on the floor. We haven’t even dove into the matchup, but it’s been a recurring theme for me to target the Pelicans. This has a lot to do with the horrid defensive efficiency of Rondo, Holiday and Moore, with all 3 of them being below the 110 median line. They also all boast mediocre DRPM number’s. All in all, everything point’s up for Oladipo! Also a fun note: The Pacers have asked Oladipo to shoot more!
SG Danny Green | San Antonio Spurs | $4,900
The other team I target often at the Guard position is the Phoenix Suns. This is in part due to the fact that every single one of their guards is horrible defensively. A lot of times we see teams with one mediocre defender, like the Pacers for example: Collison is mediocre, but Oladipo is solid and it takes away some fantasy upside as Oladipo will shadow the better guard. Not the Phoenix Spurs. I mean, what is defense really? You think I am kidding… Devin Booker, Josh Jackson, Tyler Ulis, Troy Daniels all have one thing in common stat-wise: they all have a sub -1.50 DRPM rating. Another reason we can stack against the Suns in the back court is they are actually respectable up top (I know, something I didn’t think I’d say this year), as Chriss/Chandler and Len are all respectable in the Defensive efficiency category! Danny Green is seeing more work as Coach Pop relies on him a ton defensively. It is worth a mention that Danny Green has played the Suns once this year and he was a PPM player (dropping 22 in 22) and that he has seen 26+ minutes in 5 out of the last 6. The one where he didn’t was against the Kings and Green left early! Green has been shooting well of late so he will look to stay hot.
We will look for Green to get us into the green!
SF Kyle Anderson | San Antonio Spurs | $4,800
Someone pinch me, ’cause I’m stacking two Spurs. I honestly can say this is something I’ve only done once before when the Spurs played the Cavs and I played an Anderson/Murray combination. It is very rare that I like the Spurs’ players this much due to Coach Pop’s seemingly random decisions to sit players. For example, Pau Gasol will no longer be starting for the time being. How does Pau Gasol not starting correlate to players like Danny Green and Kyle Anderson? Well, it means that they get a usage increase. However minuscule, we do see both players usage increase by 1 point. Where the major increase comes is when the combination of Murray-Green-Anderson-Aldridge-Bertans is on the floor. Now I need to state that the data here is very limited, as this combination of players has only been on the floor for 44 possessions or 22 minutes total. With these guys playing together, Kyle Anderson goes from .82 PPM up to .98 ppm, an almost o.20 point per minute boost (Note that Danny Green gets a .10 ppm boost with Pau off)! All of this just means that they have more opportunities to provide fantasy points! Oh, and Anderson is playing the Phoenix Suns, who allowed Hart and Ingram to combine for 80 DK points last night! While I don’t see that explosion happening, I do believe the 6x value for this combination of 59 DK points is 100% attainable.
PF Nikola Mirotic | New Orleans Pelicans | $6,500
Yes, I am still on the Nikola Mirotic bandwagon. Yes, his price has surged and yes, he tanked last game against Derrick Favors, but all that does is make me like him more. As people have the bitter taste of the tank in there mouth and see the price increase, people will say “fade” while I roll the dice against a bad matchup. Mirotic 100% could have reached value if he hit his shots, as he shot 2/8 and 0/4 from down town. Mirotic is a mid 40% shooter, so if he hits even 2 more shots from inside and 2 more shots from outside, he would score 10 more fantasy points. Maybe he feels more engaged and grabs a couple more boards or blocks a shot and all of a sudden that 9 point effort turns into a 30 point effort. I would be terrified of Mirotic if the minutes dropped or usage was way low and he didn’t get shots up. He still had a 17% usage rate last game and his teammates still looked to him, even with him being ice cold. He is facing a way worse defensive matchup, as the Pacers allow more points per game and they play at a higher pace. This will also help Mirotic’s game because an increased pace generally equals more shooting opportunities and open shots. All in all, I am going back to the well here with Mirotic and you should too!
We head back to the well with Mirotic against the Pacers!
C Karl Anthony-Towns| Minnesota Timberwolves | $9,100
Karl Anthony-Towns is in a sweet spot tonight. The Cavs have looked horrible since Love’s injury, as they’re struggling when Bigmen stretch the floor. Thompson (who’s horrible defensively) and Frye (who has a decent DRPM) struggle in the Pick and Pop situations, as their ability to move quickly around the court isn’t great. This of course is something that Karl Anthony-Towns has thrived in. Since Thompson took over the starting role, Centers are scoring 10% higher than the league average against the Cavs. Matchup-wise, it doesn’t get a whole lot better for Karl Anthony-Towns. Now I know what you are thinking, “The Cavs are a mess and this game has blow out written all over it.” While it very well could get out of hand, if you look at the Timberwolves, they are one of the few organizations who don’t bench their starters early if the game is out of hand. It seems as though Tom Thibodeau has an ‘at least 28 minutes’ rule as even in blowouts, starters regularly hit this mark. It is also worth a mention that Towns is a life long, die hard Eagles fan and was in tears of joy as the Eagles won the Super Bowl! He said similar to what Kyle Lowry said, where he felt fired up and rejuvenated by the victory. (Kyle Lowry went for 45 in a blow out of Celtics last night!) Lock in the Eagles fan narrative for now until it kills us. (I must note that I, Zachary Williamson, am a die hard Eagles fan and have been since 04!! #FLYEAGLESFLY)
Towns will look to fly high against the Cavs in Wednesday night’s matchup!
Z-Will is the DailyPlayAction resident NBA expert, and shares his Cheat Sheets for all main slates on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Z-Will plays DraftKings and though he expresses his opinion on today’s slate he may implement other plays and strategies in his own lineups without notice.