Fades and Pivots – Week 10 Main Slate – NFL DFS

1067

Hi, there and welcome my fellow Daily Fantasy Sports fanatics to my Week 10 NFL main slate edition of Fades and Pivots! My name is CD Hill (@cdhill81 on Twitter), and as DPA’s newest NFL DFS aficionado, you can expect an inquiry from me each and every week on what players to avoid in DFS contests, and who to play instead in order to get an abnormality from the norm that could potentially create low owned winning lineups that payoff in the end! With that said, and now that you know what to expect in this article, let’s see what we have to work with in this slate. I wish all of my usual readers and new ones the best of luck this week in regards to winning some do-re-mi in their DFS contests and without further delay, let’s get started!

Note: This is just a heads up. Keep an eye on all of the players listed as Questionable in this article. Only consider going with that player if he’s listed as a starter before kickoff this Sunday.

Quarterback

FADE: | Jared Goff (LAR)

In the past few weeks, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been sneaky good defensively and that’s who Jared Goff faces this Sunday. The Steelers are second in the NFL in takeaways, fourth in the league in sacks and now rank ninth in all of football in passing yards against. Goff may have been good lately against bad pass defenses but Pittsburgh really doesn’t shape up as anything close to a bad pass D. He also comes in a bit costly on FanDuel and will be without one of his favorite targets, wide receiver, Brandin Cooks (concussion), this week. That’s going to make Pittsburgh’s opponent in this slate a bit less formidable against their secondary and the Steelers’ defensive line and linebackers already know how vulnerable Goff can be when pass pressure is high. This Rams quarterback just doesn’t match up well in this one, so looking at other options at the QB spot in Week 10 DFS contests looks like the wisest approach to take this week.

PIVOT: | Matt Ryan (ATL)

I was close to mentioning Matt Ryan and wide receiver, Julio Jones, in my Stack Report and now I simply can’t avoid doing it since I realized this is looking like the perfect time to start them both as contrarian plays. Ryan is finally over his ankle injury and can now get back to showing why he’s considered one of the best (and possibly the most underrated) QBs in the game. He faces the Saints in Week 10 and that means a possible shootout between him and QB, Drew Brees, is on the way. This Falcons gunslinger was averaging a whopping 376.5 passing yards per game and 3.5 passing TDs per contest in two out of his last three games before the contest he recently suffered an injury in. New Orleans has allowed plenty of Fantasy production to quarterbacks this season, so Ryan and his top WR, Julio Jones, who is also a top-notch player, should have no problems going off offensively this Sunday. Ryan’s price tag is very reasonable right now and his pOWN% is much lower than it normally is most weeks. Thanks to that and his high ceiling, he is a solid start in Tourneys and he is very doable play in Cash games thanks to his safe floor.

Running Back

FADE: | Todd Gurley (LAR)

Yup, this is another Rams player as a top Fade this week and here’s why I had to do it. The first thing I just don’t like about Todd Gurley in this spot is his potential workload. It’s really a guessing game at this point how many carries he’ll get week by week, so that’s a huge negative with starting him. Secondly, no one really knows how much his knee can handle at this point either since the Rams are handling him and his questionable knee with kid gloves. Just when you think Los Angeles (NFC) will finally let him get a full workload in due to him really playing well early on in certain games, they rein him in considerably later on in those same contests. Thirdly, the bulk of Gurley’s value this season has come from touchdowns. He has yet to run for at least 100 yards in any contest and he’s only had one notable receiving performance this season (a 7-54 line in Week 4). Lastly, his upcoming matchup with the Steelers this week really doesn’t look good for him. Pittsburgh has not only been good against the pass lately but they’ve continually been formidable against the run, too, this year and haven’t exactly been kind to RBs that typically catch a lot of passes either. All of this makes this Rams ‘back a pretty unattractive start not only in Cash games but in GPPs as well in Week 10.

PIVOT: | Derrick Henry (TEN)

Derrick Henry was the top Pivot option at running back last week and here he is again for a few good reasons. Despite his excellent performance against the Panthers in Week 9 (99 total yards and two TDs), Henry still isn’t projected to be owned in a ton of DFS contests this week. That’s great news for DFS owners who are looking for solid ‘back that won’t cost a crazy amount to play because this Titans RB happens to be one of those kind of running backs in Week 10. Henry has really stood out in two out of his last three games averaging 21.4 DraftKings points per game and 20.6 FanDuel points per game in that stretch. He looks like a good bet to continue his outstanding play of late in his next matchup because the defense he faces next, the Chiefs, shouldn’t fare well against him. After all, Kansas City is the second worst defense in the league in rushing yards against and they’re terrible at containing RBs who can catch passes, too. Henry has a shot at 4-5 catches this Sunday, thanks to that, and notably caught three passes just last week (one for a TD). This Tennessee running back is a Pivot that comes in as a fitting Tourney play in this slate and is also a serviceable Cash game option.

Wide Receiver

FADE: | JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT, Questionable)

For starters, Julu Smith-Schuster’s toe injury is bothering him again. It’s the same one that bothered him earlier this year and although there’s a good chance he’ll play with it, anyway, he’ll likely have to compete again without teammate and starting RB, James Conner (shoulder). That’ll make his next opponent, the Los Angeles Rams, zone in on Pittsburgh’s passing game since their run game is clearly weaker now without Conner. That’ll make Smith-Schuster’s job on the receiving end even harder, especially considering Los Angeles (NFC) is a top-10 defense in the NFL against the pass. It’s also critical to know that Smith-Schuster hasn’t had a 10-target game yet this season, has only one 100-yard receiving game under his belt this year, and has only scored three TDs since Week 1 (he’s under double-digit red zone targets in 2019). While it’s true that his price tag keeps dropping on DraftKings and FanDuel and comes in at a very reasonable rate, it simply isn’t a good enough reason to roster him this week no matter what kind of DFS contest you plan on joining. Don’t let his low-end pOWN% tempt you either.

PIVOT: | Julio Jones (ATL)

Julio Jones finally broke out of his slump, Fantasy points wise, in Week 8 against the Seahawks. In that contest, he finished with a stellar 12 targets, 10 catches and 152 receiving yards (which came out to 28.2 DraftKings points and 20.2 FanDuel points) and even though he hasn’t had a TD catch since Week 3, he seems due to finally score at least one TD in Week 10 against the next team he faces, the Saints. New Orleans has had a hard time minimizing receiving touchdowns this year (top-5 worst D in the league, in that regard) and are a medium-level defense, at best, in terms of how well they limit receiving yards. They’ve also let Jones finish with very notable numbers last season against them. In that game, he ended up with 11 catches and 147 receiving yards, so expecting numbers similar to that this week really doesn’t seem unreasonable. This Falcons receiver still comes in pretty costly on DraftKings and FanDuel but his predicted ownership percentage isn’t very high right now. That helps him become an ideal GPP play and since he has a optimal matchup, playing him in Cash games is another route to consider. 

Tight End

FADE: | Mark Andrews (BAL)

Mark Andrews was rock-solid in his first two games of the year averaging eight catches for 110 receiving yards and one touchdown, but he’s fallen off considerably since then offensively. In five out of his last six contests, Andrews has only managed to average 3.2 catches and 30.2 receiving yards and has only hauled in one pass for a TD in that time. This Baltimore tight end also has an opponent in Week 10, Cincinnati, that does a pretty adequate job at minimizing the damage done on the receiving end by TEs. That reality is telling when you see what the Bengals have given up on average, fantasy points wise, to TEs on DraftKings (8.5 per game) and on FanDuel (6.7 per game) this season. Overall and despite Andrews’ decent pOWN% and fairly decent price tag factored in, you’ll probably be better off avoiding him and going with a less expensive option with upside at the tight end spot this Sunday. 

PIVOT: | O.J. Howard (TB)

It seems like every time O.J. Howard gets a favorable matchup in any given week, he’s predicted by some DFS expert that he’ll finally come through for DFS owners brave enough to chance it on him despite his ongoing struggles offensively since the start of the season. With that said, I guess it’s my turn to predict this but this time it’ll actually be a good call. Ha! All jokes aside, I really do hope that’ll be the case but in addition to going with hope, there are big time factors working in Howard’s favor that we can’t ignore. This Bucs TE faces a Cardinals defense this week that is, by far, the worst D in the league versus tight ends in terms of the amount of receiving yards they give up to players at that position. Arizona is also the league’s worst in TE receiving TDs against and TE receptions against, so as you can clearly see, they are flat out awful against tight ends. I’ll be absolutely stupefied if Howard doesn’t get anywhere between 50-100 receiving yards and at least one TD in this slate and that’s why he’s my super sneaky GPP play at the tight end spot right now in Daily Fantasy Sports.

Defense / Special Teams

FADE: | Cleveland Browns

You have to know this first thing about this Fade D/ST, the Cleveland Browns, before you know anything else about them. They only scored five Fantasy Points against first-time and relatively unknown starting QB, Brandon Allen, last week in a 24-19 loss to the Broncos. Potentially, that’s a terrible sign of things to come for Cleveland’s defense for the rest of the season since they’re already off to a shaky start as it is and that was supposed to be a bounce-back matchup for them at the mid-way point to the season. It’s also not playing into the Browns’ favor that defenses who have already faced the Buffalo Bills in the past four weeks are only averaging 4.3 Fantasy Points per game against them in that stretch of play. Cleveland faces Buffalo in Week 10 and there’s yet another reason not to like this Fade as your Defense/Special Team of choice right now. In conclusion, the Browns’ D/ST also has an insanely high pOWN% at the moment and that’s why you just have to say no to going with them in any type of DFS content this Sunday. It’s just not worth the risk. 

PIVOT: | Buffalo Bills

The Cleveland Browns, the next team on the Buffalo’s Bills’ schedule, have surrendered close to three sacks per game this year and defenses, in general, are averaging the fifth most points per game against them since the start of the season. Buffalo D is also registering four sacks per contest in three out of their last four games and come in nicely priced this week in DFS despite having decent upside. They’re also one of the better D/ST on this slate that’s not projected to be highly owned on DraftKings or FanDuel and all of this plays into why this is my favorite Pivot at this spot.

Other Fades / Pivots

QB


FADE

(CASH/GPP)  KC | Patrick Mahomes

(GPP)  CLE | Baker Mayfield

PIVOT

(CASH/GPP)  NO | Drew Brees  &  GB | Aaron Rodgers

(GPP)  NYG | Daniel Jones  &  TEN | Ryan Tannehill

RB


FADE

(CASH)  GB | Aaron Jones

(GPP)  ARI | Kenyan DrakeCIN | Joe Mixon,  KC | LeSean McCoy

PIVOT

(CASH/GPP)  CLE | Nick Chubb  &  IND | Marlon Mack

(GPP)  GB | Jamaal Williams  &  NYJ | Bilal Powell 

(viable option only if Le’Veon Bell sits)

WR


FADE

(CASH)  GB | Davante Adams 

(CASH/GPP)  CLE | Odell Beckham Jr. LAR | Robert Woods

(GPP)  KC | Sammy WatkinsCIN | Tyler Boyd,  CAR | Curtis Samuel,  &

NYJ | Robby Anderson

PIVOT

(CASH/GPP)  DET | Kenny Golladay  or  (GPP)  DET | Marvin Jones Jr.

(Continued GPPs are the following…)  CHI | Allen Robinson

BUF | John Brown,  ARI | Larry FitzgeraldNYG | Golden Tate

IND | Zach PascalMIA | DeVante ParkerNYJ | Jamison Crowder,  & 

LAR | Josh Reynolds

TE


FADE

  (CASH)  KC | Travis Kelce  

PIVOT

(GPP)  LAR | Gerald Everett,  TEN | Jonnu Smith  &  NYJ | Chris Herndon 

(Questionable)

DEF/ST


FADE

(CASH/GPP)  New Orleans Saints

PIVOT

(GPP/CASH)  Chicago Bears  Los Angeles Rams


Thank you very much for taking the time to catch up on NFL Week 10 with the Daily Play Action NFL Team! Premium members, please take note that a Slack Live Q+A follow up for Sunday’s NFL Week 10 Main Slate will take place from 11:00 AM-12:00PM EST on Sunday morning. Don’t forget to follow us on twitter as well at @dailyplayaction and @cdhill81 where you can find the most updated info and analysis on all NFL Daily Fantasy developments.