First and foremost, Happy Halloween! Like most years, today I woke up and put on my Halloween costume for a full day at the office. In years past I have been SpongeBob, “Pat Man,” and RoboCop, but today’s chosen adult onesie was the SnapChat hot dog complete with a matching SnapChat filter for the next 24 hours. My social streams have been on fire, but I did want to take a few minutes to talk about what I look for when making lineup decisions for football. In particular, how do I put a costume on my DFS weekly lineup that I know most will not even think about wearing! Trick or Treat NFL DFS!
- Defense – It’s pretty common, but in case you weren’t aware, it makes a lot of sense to pair a running back with your defense. If a team is winning, most likely their defense is doing well too, which leads to controlling the clock and ultimately running the football. Team defenses and running backs are directly correlated. Another strategy I like to use in GPP contests is to pair the defense with the opposing teams quarterback. Same idea, if the defense is playing well and winning, the opposing quarterback is going to need to throw the football to get back into the game. This strategy will also really differentiate your lineups because 95 % of players will not play any players against the defense that they have rostered. I normally don’t play the shorter slates, but this is a quick way to get weird in smaller slates in particular.Week 9 example play – Brett Hundley $5100 and $3000 Detroit Lions Defense
- Running Backs – Double it up! There are some really poor run defenses this year in the NFL, and also some very productive split backfields. Many times, the second running back being a great value play to compliment the top back. Same as above…most will not roster two running backs from the same team which immediately helps keep ownership down. The other situation is two very low priced options are available, but as long as one of them scores a touchdown the group together is a steal.
That’s a spooky costume, Aaron Rodgers!
- Week 9 example play – Orleans Darkwa $3800 and Wayne Gallman $3400 vs LA Rams
- Tight Ends – Pay up at tight end! Basic lineup construction for most starts with a stacking a QB / WR then finding a value running back paired with a defense and then filling in the rest. With that strategy, it’s common to fill in tight end last which normally doesn’t have you spending up at tight end and in turn lowers the ownership. That’s why Gronk’s ownership is always lower than it should be.Week 9 example play – Zach Ertz $6800 vs Denver Broncos defense
Reverse Chalk Stack– Find the chalkiest defense and go right at it with a multiple player stack (example: Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks defense this past weekend). I use this strategy in baseball a lot by finding the chalk pitcher and stacking the opposing team’s hitters against it. In football it works the same way. This correlation is also leveraged, because as your offense goes off, the chalk defense that you faded loses points while you rise up the leaderboard.
- Week 9 example play – Aj Green $7400 and Joe Mixon $5100 vs CHALK JAGUARS D
- GameStack the second highest Vegas total – Game stacking the highest VEGAS total is common, and when successful, can reap major rewards in GPP contests. With that said, those games also drive the highest ownership by being labeled the “highest Vegas total of the week.” Hop off that game and choose the next highest. A simple yet effective strategy. That one-point difference in game total will pay off big when the ownership is 50% less.Week 9 example play – fade the KC / Dal game and game stack the Tampa Bay / NO game
Stay tuned for more GPP strategy and insight from Oaktown exclusively on the DailyPlayAction.