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The Cheat Sheet | Monday 12.4.2017

Below you will find the NBA Cheat Sheet system that I have built to help me cash at a 70% clip this season. Here at the Daily Play Action, our goal is to take you from the grey to the green with our data-driven breakdowns and analysis.

To qualify for the cheat sheet, a player must have a positive DVP (Defense Vs. Position: how a team defends each position) match up (Top 13), and opportunity (20 plus Projected minutes).

The baseline projection for each position is calculated using the average DK points scored by the player, and is then multiplied by that player’s expected minutes.

The Plus/Minus is explained by how far off the baseline projection is from 6x value (The 6x value system projects you to hit at least 300 points if each player hits value, which is almost a guaranteed cash line). This model indicates that each player will have to make up “X” DraftKings Points per Minute to cover the value spread.

NBA 
 CHEAT 
 SHEET
 12/4/17
Salary
Position
Player
Mins
BLP
+/-
PG
$9800Simmons32.6843.33-15
$7500Walker36.9542.22-3
$7000Dinwiddie31.2535.17-7
$6100Dunn26.6330.3-6
$5600Smith Jr31.0932.8-1
SG
$7800Booker34.6541.04-5
$6900Butler37.1937.8-4
$5500Fournier32.9331.97-2
$4600Barea20.3224.71-3
$4400Belinelli26.7823.57-1
SF
$5500Valentine33.2328.34-6
$5100Ingles27.224.04-6
$5000Simmons30.2328.09-2
$4800Gay24.5127.46-1
$3000Bertens2117.19-1
PF
$8300Aldridge33.3740.43-9
$6600Barnes34.9833.58-6
$6400Harris33.4832.25-6
$6200Covington30.0730.47-7
$3500Beasley28.2528.27
C
$9800Embiid31.4250.62-8
$8800Drummond33.3845.49-7
$6200Kanter28.434.73-3
$5200Lopez30.8726.47-5
$4300Plumlee30.2530.257

Z-Will’s Top Plays

PG Dennis Smith Jr. | Dallas Mavericks | $5,600

The rookie continues to impress. He is someone who the Mavericks are very high on and he continues to get more run, despite the great play of Barea and Harris behind him. He gets a great matchup against a Nuggets team who has been horrible yet again at guarding opposing point guards with a short rotation due to injuries. The IR list featuring Denver’s stars makes this game enticing as it should stay close. I love Smith in this spot!

SG Devin Booker | Phoenix Suns | $7,800

Devin Booker is finally out of his cold streak, and I’m ready to hop on the bandwagon! Normally I fade the Suns when the spread is over 5 (currently it’s at 10) but this game’s total is set at 227 which is huge. Additionally, Booker seems to be blowout proof, playing 30+ minutes in all but 1 game over his last 10 – despite being on the short side of some pretty big blowouts. Booker is in an eruption spot, and should get caught up in the mix of guards in his price range while keeping ownership low.

SF/PF Michael Beasley | New York Knicks | $3,500

Porzingis and Hardaway Jr. will miss at least one more game on Monday night per sources at ESPN. If this is the case, and you don’t have Beasley in your lineups, why do you even play DFS? I don’t care if his ownership may be over 25%, he is a player at just $3,500 that has a 40 point ceiling! Please eat the chalk here and play him to allow you flexibility and salary relief. His usage and scoring ability is way to hard to ignore against a team allowing top 5 numbers to forwards.

Image result for michael beasley new york knicks

Michael Beasley is DPA’S MUST PLAY OF THE DAY!

PF/C Enes Kanter | New York Knicks | $6200

Speaking of Knicks who get a huge boost with Porzingis and Hardaway out, we have Kanter who literally gets a 10 point usage boost (I know it’s absolutely nuts). Both Beasley and Kanter get an amazing matchup against the Pacers tonight while the aforementioned Knicks sit out with injuries. I don’t mind stacking them at all because of how much of the offense they account for and due to Beasley’s generous price. With people looking to spread it around and still get Beasley you could potentially get Kanter at sub 15% ownership when he should be 30%+. Take advantage of NYK tonight!

C Andre Drummond | Detroit Pistons | $8,800

I don’t even care that I play Drummond every slate. He literally takes me to the bank every night. Drummond gets another smash spot against a Spurs team that allow big men to go crazy on the boards. Have I mentioned that Drummond is averaging almost 5 assists a game this year? What about the fact that his free throw percentage is through the roof as well? (definitely mentioned that too) Andre should lock for 50 points and 6x value yet again.

Image result for andre drummond

Drummond continues to be a nightly lock, put him in and print that $$$$$!

Bargain Bin Stars: $4,500 or less!!

SG Marco Belinelli | Atlanta Hawks | $4,300

Streaky Shooter with a Decent DVP matchup – should Cover Cash Game Value against a Nets team who allows teams to rain 3’s on them!

SF Thabo Sefolosha | Utah Jazz | $3,700

Gritty does a little bit, but not a whole lot of everything playing in a 9 man rotation due to injuries – cash game value isn’t a stretch (Note: if Hood and Gobert are back, he is way less enticing)

SF Davis Bertans | San Antonio Spurs | $3,000

GPP Punt. Had him locked in Sunday and he gave me 34 points. While he’s not likely to repeat, with Anderson likely to miss and the Spurs inability to go small due to Drummond, he could be a sneaky 20 points at minimum salary.

C Mason Plumlee | Denver Nuggets | $4300

HE IS JUST WAY TOO CHEAP WITH THE MINUTES HE IS SEEING DUE TO JOKIC AND MILLSAP OUT. GO GET ‘EM!

Image result for mason plumlee

Plumlee is a value that is wau too tough to pass up on with the minutes and usage boost he has seen

Z-Will is the DailyPlayAction resident NBA expert, and shares his Cheat Sheets for all main slates on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.

Optimized Tournament Lineup | Week 13

A lot has gone on in the football world this week that should most definitely factor into our lineup-constructing decisions. The Eli Era in the Big Apple has come to an abrupt end as McAdoo has unapologetically sunk a franchise that has prided itself in stability over the past 14 years. Josh Gordon’s career has risen from the abyss as he is back on the field after openly admitting to having experienced and selling every drug in the book, which should create a lot of nostalgia among the DFS community of his days tormenting NFL secondaries back in 2014.

With injuries, benching, and important news constantly breaking out in the NFL, its our job to help you avoid as many hazardous plays as possible, and ultimately get your lineup to cash. In this week’s edition of the DailyPlayAction’s official GPP lineup, we dive into the exploitable matchups of the lesser known players that will catapult you to the top of the leaderboard.

Lets jump right into it as I give you the tools to succeed in a very appealing Week 13 Sunday Slate for DraftKings:

QB

Tyrod Taylor | Buffalo Bills

DraftKings Salary: $5,400 | Projected Ceiling: 29 points | Projected Ownership: 6%

Outside of the annihilation that took place when the Saints came marching into town, the Bills have quietly been consistent performers at home while maintaining a 4-1 record. Throughout the year, Tyrod Taylor has been undervalued while consistently outperforming his price, especially with a core of misfit receivers that spend more time on the #ZayJonesChallenge then practicing catching the ball. Facing the Patriots this week, Taylor should be a shoe-in for at least 3X value as New England has allowed 21.3 DraftKings FPPG to the QB system, which is a bottom-five mark amongst all NFL squads.

Can you do the #zayjoneschallenge?

RB

LeSean McCoy | Buffalo Bills

DraftKings Salary: $7,600 | Projected Ceiling: 30 points | Projected Ownership: 10%

LeSean McCoy is another great play at the Ralph as he has averaged 20.6 DK FPPG against the Patriots since 2015, while they have let up 115.1 rushing yards per game (21st) this season. Being that the Patriots will likely lead as 7.5 road favorites, garbage time could definitely be a factor as McCoy has at least 3 receptions in all but two games this season. With Mike Tolbert out of the picture, Shady is in prime position to receive a bulk of the goal-line carries and deliver more false-promise to the forever faithful Bills Mafia.

RB

Jamaal Williams | Green Bay Packers

DraftKings Salary: $4,700 | Projected Ceiling: 26 points | Projected Ownership: 23%

With Aaron Jones most likely out with a knee injury this week (Questionable), and Ty Montgomery recently having been put on the IR with a bum wrist, Jamaal Williams will be looking to relive his monster Week 12 performance. Williams has at least 20 touches over the past three consecutive game, including a large role in the passing game hauling in eight catches for 107 yards within that span. This week he has a fantastic matchup against the Buccaneers, who have allowed a running back to score or gain 100 total yards in six of their past seven games. Though he may be a very chalky play, his ceiling is too high to pass up on for such a cheap value at only $4,700.

Jamaal Williams looks to shoulder the load against the Bucs if Aaron Jones remains sidelined

WR

Deandre Hopkins | Houston Texans

DraftKings Salary: $7,300 | Projected Ceiling: 34 points | Projected Ownership: 28%

Averaging 12.3 targets per game since Tom Savage has taken over after Deshaun Watson’s injury, Nuk seems to be matchup proof with a massive volume of targets. This week he does not even need to be as he will face the Titans defense that ranks 26th in total defensive DVOA, which is a unit that he’s average 20.8 DK fppg against since the beginning of his career. Nuk is out to show the world that he’s the best receiver in the game, and in the DFS world he is proving to be one of the most consistent as he has scored at least 14 DraftKings points in nine of ten games played this season.

WR

Dede Westbrook | Jacksonville Jaguars

DraftKings Salary: $4,100 | Projected Ceiling: 20 points | Projected Ownership: 5%

Since returning to the playing field, Dede Westbrook has been benefiting from the ankle injury that has been keeping Allen Hurns sidelined since Week 11. In Arizona last week, Westbrook received 10 targets, while catching 6 of them for 41 yards. Though the actual production may leave DFS players unsatisfied, what should be exciting is the early workload he has been given while beginning to build a rapport with the forever underwhelming Blake Bortles. This week he will lineup across from the Colts’ 28th-ranked defense in pass DVOA that will likely be without No. 1 corner Rashaan Melvin. Melvin’s absence should be a huge blow to the defense, as PFF’s No. 14 overall corner held Antonio Brown to a 3-47-0 line in week 10. Consider Westbrook a great value play against a secondary that has struggled to lock-down WR2’s throughout the year.

Dede Westbrook has received 16 targets over his last two games

WR

Seth Roberts | Oakland Raiders

DraftKings Salary: $3,700 | Projected Ceiling: 22 points | Projected Ownership: 10%

In the blink of an eye, the Oakland Raiders lost their starting two receivers in week 12. When these occurrences happen, naturally its our job to exploit this opportunity for a low-priced receiver that should receive a high volume of targets. Roberts received nine targets two weeks ago against New England, and has an enticing date against the Giants 29th-ranked pass defense, that has allowed 258 passing yards per game. At $3,700, Seth Roberts is the DailyPlayAction’s value play of the week.

TE

Jared Cook | Oakland Raiders

DraftKings Salary: $5,400 | Projected Ceiling: 24 points | Projected Ownership: 19%

Even with both Crabtree and Cooper on the field through eleven games this year, Cooks has still managed to lead the team with 42 receptions and 536 yards while lining up for a lot of his snaps in the slot. Without them, his ceiling is as high as its ever been against a defense that ranks worst in the NFL against the TE position. Though he may be the highest owned TE throughout tournament slates, consider him a must-play at $5,400.

Jared Cook has a date with NYG’s heinous coverage linebackers 

FLEX

Todd Gurley | Los Angeles Rams

DraftKings Salary: $8,200 | Projected Ceiling: 36 points | Projected Ownership: 14%

Todd Gurley continues to be one of the most consistent running backs in all of fantasy football, as his receiving ability and nose for the end zone almost guarantee that he’ll be an RB1 each week. If we turn back the clock to week 7, Gurley racked up 154 total yards along with a score against the Cardinals in London. The Rams have managed to score 27 points in all of their road games with the exception of one at Minnesota, and I expect this week to be no different against a Cardinals defense that is fresh off of letting up 27 points to a horrendous Jacksonville offense.

D/ST

Los Angeles Rams

DraftKings Salary: $3,600 | Projected Ceiling: 17 points | Projected Ownership: 3%

Though there are a few tasty defensive matchups for teams such as the Chargers and Jaguars, the Rams are an option that offer a similiar same ceiling at a greater discount. A large part of that is due to the interim quarterback on the other side of the ball in Blaine Gabbert, though he has exceeded expectations through two games after Drew Stanton’s injury. Regardless, I like the Rams defense to make a statement this week that their record isn’t solely a reflection of Los Angeles’ stellar offensive play.

Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn have some big plans for Blaine Gabbert tomorrow

theDailyPlayAction publishes weekly optimized lineups along with strategy and lineup building advice throughout the NFL season. Follow us on Facebook to stay up to date on the industry’s hottest takes on week to week NFL Daily Fantasy action.

Optimized Cash Game Lineup | Week 13

When oh when will I ever learn?

After a performance like the one Julio Jones had last week, I was faced with the prospect of looking myself in the mirror Sunday evening to ask myself, “What the hell were you thinking not playing Julio against the Bucs in your cash game lineup?”

A befuddling question indeed.

If you were in the same boat as I was, then we are equally tilted heading into Week 13’s main slate.

There is a ton of value to go around tomorrow, and I feel really good about where we stand heading into the homestretch of the NFL season.

All I ask before we begin, is that you pray just once to the football gods that we do not fall witness to another Mount St. Julio eruption in Week 13.

QB

Brett Hundley | Green Bay Packers

DraftKings Salary: $5,100 | DPA Projected Score: 18 Points

If you had asked me if I planned to start Brett Hundley in my cash game lineup a month ago, I would have undoubtedly laughed in your face. It looks as though Brett Hundley is the one laughing now, as he has found his way into my lineup after a terrific performance against a stout Steelers defense on the road in Pittsburgh. Hundley has been somewhat inconsistent since being handed the keys to the Packers offense, but I’m a firm believer that ANYONE can have success against the Bucs 30th ranked pass defense. Stack up home favorite Brett Hundley with his favorite receiver Davante Adams for an economical $11,600, and assure yourself a safe floor for your cash game roster.

Brett Hundley looks to build off of a strong 3 TD showing at Pittsburgh

RB

Todd Gurley | Los Angeles Rams

DraftKings Salary: $8,200 | DPA Projected Score: 24 Points

Gurley and the Rams travel to Arizona to face off against the Cardinals this week with the hopes of getting one win closer to a 1st round bye in the playoffs. The Rams will be without Robert Woods this week, and Patrick Peterson is likely to shadow Sammy Watkins. With both of the Rams top receiving options eliminated, I expect Gurley to be handed a heavy workload. Arizona has been good against the run this season (4th DVOA), but TG is matchup proof, and is sure to get plenty of work in the passing game as well. Anytime you can secure an average of 24 touches in a game, an $8,200 price tag feels like a bargain. Especially in a week with not a ton of other options worth paying up for.

RB

Carlos Hyde | San Francisco 49ers

DraftKings Salary: $5,900 | DPA Projected Score: 18 Points

My use of Carlos Hyde is definitely becoming a thing. As one of my cash game mainstays, and an absolute target monster, my hope is that having Jimmy Garoppalo under center will ultimately help Hyde to find the end zone. As I mentioned in my Week 12 Optimized Cash Game lineup, Hyde has thrived in passing situations – ranking 3rd in the NFL among running backs with 75 targets. The sheer amount of usage that Hyde has seen is indicative of more TDs on the horizon, and with Beathard out of the picture, I’m confident that Hyde can turn the corner and easily realize Cash Game value (2.5x).

Hyde has a ridiculous 75 receiving targets this season

WR

DeAndre Hopkins | Houston Texans

DraftKings Salary: $7,300 | DPA Projected Score: 23 Points 

WR/CB Matchup: Adoree’ Jackson (PFF Rating of 77.7 – #49 overall among CBs)

Yeah, but….how can you count on a guy who is catching passes from by Tom Savage?

First and foremost, allow me to start by saying that DeAndre Hopkins has made a living off of making bad QBs look good. Hopkins will ball regardless of the matchup, and leads all WRs with 9 TDs this season. The guy simply doesn’t take plays off, and heads into Week 13 after playing 69 out of 69 snaps in a Week 12 loss to Baltimore. Nuke averages 11.36 targets and 21 DK points per game, and is second only to Antonio Brown in these vital categories. We already know what happens when D-Hop is matched up with an average cornerback, and this week he not only gets that, but also gets to toy with a rookie in Titans novice, Adoree’ Jackson. At just $7,300, can you say…smash spot?

WR

Demaryius Thomas | Denver Broncos

DraftKings Salary: $5,300 | DPA Projected Score: 25 Points

WR/CB Matchup: Xavien Howard (PFF Rating of 34.3 – #117 overall among CBs)

So I completely botched this call last week, but I’m going back to the well with my metaphorical tail between my legs to jump on DT at an absolutely silly $5,300. If there’s one thing I can say about Thomas, its that he has terrific chemistry with newly renamed starter Trevor Siemian, hauling in 45 receptions on 59 targets through the Broncos first 7 games. Demaryius finds himself in a great position this week with his preferred QB back the helm against Miami’s “top CB,” Xavien Howard. Howard and the Miami secondary has been atrocious as a whole this season, ranking 30th in DVOA against the pass and 29th in the NFL against WR1s. Thomas’ volume is right where we want it to be for a cash game receiver, as he has racked up 8+ Targets in 9 of 11 games this season. On last night’s Week 13 Preview Podcast, I stated during our bold calls segment that Demaryius Thomas would be the highest scoring receiver on the Week 13 main slate. T-minus 24 hours to kickoff, and I’m standing by that call.

Demaryius Thomas gets his favorite QB in Trevor Siemian back this week

WR

Davante Adams | Green Bay Packers

DraftKings Salary: $6,500 | DPA Projected Score: 19 Points

WR/CB Matchup: Robert McClain (PFF Rating of 39.7 – #112 overall among CBs)

Believe it or not, there’s another cornerback in Florida who has been almost as bad as Miami’s Xavien Howard, and that is noneother than Bucs CB Robert McClain. McClain will be subjected to 60 minutes of Davante Adams this Sunday, who has quickly become Brett Hundley’s favorite target in the Green Bay passing game. It seems as though the absence of A-Rod has done wonders for Adams’ production, as he has averaged 20 DK points and 9 targets over his last three games with Hundley under center. It’s unreasonable to assume that Adams can sustain this type of production, but I do think its safe to say he can do it once more in a cake spot for the Packers passing game.

TE

Austin Seferian-Jenkins | New York Jets

DraftKings Salary: $4,000 | DPA Projected Score: 12 Points 

I’ll be the first to admit that there are more appealing plays at the tight end position this week with Gronk, Kelce, Henry, and Rudolph all on the board. I’ll also be one of the first to admit that all of those guys are more expensive than I’m willing to pay with so many other great plays to fit in on this slate. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a guy that has had a couple of rough outings recently. What is worth noting however, is that the Jets top red zone option did register 5 targets inside the 20 yard line over their last two games. For pass catchers, we can infer that this statistic is very much indicative of TD upside. The Jets host the Chiefs this weekend, and with Marcus Peters shadowing Robby Anderson, I’m confident that ASJ will find pay dirt against a defense that has run into issues in defending tight ends following the loss of star safety Eric Berry.

ASJ received 3 red zone targets against the Panthers last Sunday

FLEX

Dion Lewis | New England Patriots

DraftKings Salary: $5,500 | DPA Projected Score: 17 Points

Regardless of what your friends have been telling you, Dion Lewis is still the Patriots lead back. The Pats have the second highest implied team total of the week at 28.3 points, and are favored to beat the Bills by almost 9 points. Lewis will get 10-15 rushes to go with another 5 receptions en route to a Patriots romping of the Bills. Don’t be afraid of Rex Burkhead this week, as Lewis has still logged a higher usage rate over each of the the Patriots last two games. Buffalo has had a giant hole in the middle of their defensive line since they shamelessly traded away Marcell Darius to the Jaguars, and I expect Dion Lewis to run through that hole day in a positive game script situation for the Patriots running back.

D/ST

Arizona Cardinals

DraftKings Salary: $2,200 | DPA Projected Score: 6 Points 

While I don’t LOVE this play, I will say that Cards have only scored less than 6 DK points at home on only one occasion this season. The Rams will be without Robert Woods this week, and Sammy Watkins might as well be injured too, as he will be draw shutdown coverage from Cardinals All-Pro Cornerback, Patrick Peterson. With the lack of offensive weapons available, I expect this game to be closer than most Rams games have been this year. At $2,200, all we need is the aforementioned 6 points from the Cards defense to establish 2.5x cash game value.

Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson look to halt a white-hot Rams offense in Phoenix on Sunday

theDailyPlayAction publishes weekly optimized lineups along with strategy and lineup building advice throughout the NFL season. Follow us on Facebook to stay up to date on the industry’s hottest takes on week to week NFL Daily Fantasy action.

Week 13 Target-Hogs: DraftKings WR Breakdown

STUDS

DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans

DraftKings Salary: $7,300

After cruising through a tough 3 game stretch against some of the league’s best pass defenses, Hopkins is a no-brainer at his price this week. He’s quelled all fear that he would take a step back after the loss of stud rookie QB Deshaun Watson, averaging over 20 FPPG in the 4 games that Tom Savage has started. As the number two fantasy WR of the year, I’m amazed to see Hopkins priced below 5 other receivers in a soft matchup against Tennessee. The Titans have been letting up big games to WRs all year, making this a great spot for Hopkins to feast in.

Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings

DraftKings Salary: $7,500

Thielen has been a wrecking ball recently and I’ve been kicking myself for letting him fly under my radar for so long. I had a hard time trusting in a consistent passing game with Case Keenum at the helm, but he’s clearly capable of allowing Thielen to produce like a stud. Now that he’s established himself as the best receiver in Minnesota, Thielen should remain an intriguing option on a weekly basis. His matchup in Atlanta provides a bit of a challenge for him, but Thielen fared just fine the last time he was up against a top 10 pass D. He’ll be a safe bet for 10 targets and 80+ yds as usual.

Thielen has been one of the best fantasy options this year while operating as Keenum’s go-to receiver.

Brandin Cooks – New England Patriots

DraftKings Salary: $7,700

Brandin has been Cooking up a storm over the last couple weeks, scoring 20+ fantasy points in back-to-back weeks for the first time all season. The chemistry with Brady seems to have finally come together, and his reliable hands have been a valuable resource in a Patriots offense that’s lacking WR options. His upcoming tilt with in Buffalo will put him in another great spot to perform, as the Bills have been horrible at defending the pass in home games.This will be his third game in a row against a below-average pass D, so I see no reason why he can’t get his 3rd 20+ fantasy point game in a row.

SURE-FIRE

Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers

DraftKings Salary: $6,500

The Brett Hundley-Davante Adams combo is for real, folks. I know, it took me a while to believe it myself, but Adams has been in the top 10 in receptions, targets and yards among receivers over the last 4 weeks. He’s been getting the job done against some of the league’s best defenses, so it seems unfair to price him this low with Tampa Bay ahead on the schedule. There’s really nothing that I can say about Tampa’s defense that hasn’t been well understood up to this point, so let’s just move past that and agree that Adams should be looking at another monster game this week.

Adams has been virtually unstoppable this year despite missing Aaron Rodgers at QB.

Robby Anderson – New York Jets

DraftKings Salary: $6,300

As we get deeper into Anderson’s second year in the pros, he’s starting to flash some real star potential. He started off the year quiet, but has blossomed into one of the most consistent fantasy options over the last month. With 6 TDs over the last 5 games, it’s no wonder he’s priced over $6,000 on DraftKings for the first time all year. He’s clearly earned the trust of Josh McCown, so he should be set to roll again as the Jets host the Chiefs this Sunday. Kansas City’s secondary has been a disaster since losing Eric Berry at the start of the season, so I don’t imagine they’ll do much to slow Anderson down.

Alshon Jeffrey – Philadelphia Eagles

DraftKings Salary: $6,500

Jeffrey’s consistent play continued again last week, as he posted at least 1 TD and 50 yds for the 4th week in a row. He’s finally comfortable in Philly’s offense and has been living up to his early-season expectations. He’ll have a chance to show off his skills for a national audience this Sunday, as his team ventures into Seattle for a Sunday Night NFC showdown. With Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor both out for the season, Seattle’s Legion of Boom has lost it’s ability to strike fear in it’s opponent’s receivers. Jeffrey and the Eagles have showed no signs of slowing down recently, so he should be rolling through the ‘Hawks depleted secondary on Sunday.

After a slow start to the year, Jeffrey has emerged as one of the top fantasy receivers over the last month.

VALUE

Marvin Jones – Detroit Lions

DraftKings Salary: $6,000

Jones has had some monster performances recently but is still flying way under the radar in DraftKings’ pricing. Outside of his one dud in Cleveland, his lowest fantasy score over the last 6 weeks is 18.5. He’s taken on some of the league’s best secondaries in that stretch, so he shouldn’t have much trouble in Baltimore this week. The Ravens have the league’s 2nd rated pass D, but they just allowed Davante Adams a huge game last week. Matthew Stafford is in a different class than Brett Hundley, so I don’t see Baltimore shutting down both of his top receivers. With Jones seeing more targets than Tate since Week 6 and leading the team in receiving yds and TDs, I like his chances to lead the way for Detroit’s receivers once again in Week 13.

Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals

DraftKings Salary: $6,000

Fitzgerald was on a roll prior to last week’s game against Jacksonville’s top-ranked pass D and he’ll have a great chance to return to form this Sunday. He may not have fared well in his last matchup against the Rams, but the Cardinals lost Carson Palmer in that game and had to call upon Drew Stanton on short notice. Arizona’s passing attack seems to be operating smoother these days with Blaine Gabbert under center, so I like Fitzgerald’s chances to bounce back from his previous performance against LA. With home field advantage on their side and a more capable QB at the helm, Arizona should make things much tougher on the Rams this time around. As long as they don’t get shut out like last time, Fitzgerald should be a safe bet for around 15 fantasy points.

Mr. Sure-Hands will be back at it again this Sunday as his team hosts the Rams.

Marquise Goodwin – San Fransisco 49ers

DraftKings Salary: $4,000

It’s finally here: the Jimmy Garoppolo era has arrived in San Fransisco. It took an injury to Beathard in last week’s game to force San Fran’s hand, but the early results for Garoppolo already look promising. Coach Shanahan has proven he can run an effective offense with a capable QB at the helm, so let’s hope Jimmy G fares better for the Niners than their last former New England backup. If that’s the case, Goodwin could see a massive bump in value over the next month as San Fran’s top WR. He’s already put in a handful of solid performances since Pierre Garcon got placed on IR, so he’s the clear favorite to benefit from Garoppolo’s presence. A matchup with the lowly Bears is ahead on the schedule, a team that the Niners could easily handle if they can step up their game on offense. Goodwin could be one of the biggest steals of the week if that happens, so make sure to look his way if you need a cheap WR option.

Stay tuned for more breakdowns for every slate on DraftKings at the Daily Play Action.

Toys In The Attic | NFL Week 13

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon (12) runs past Jacksonville Jaguars middle linebacker Paul Posluszny (51) and strong safety Johnathan Cyprien (37) after a catch in the third quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 1, 2013, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

Ahhh, it’s Week 13. For most, Week 13 is the most important week of the season; a time for some to plant their seeds atop their respective leagues, a time for others to desperately try to sneak in, and lastly a time for some to start pondering their wrong doings and thinking forward to how next year will be different.

It’s actually an exciting time around the league outside of fantasy, as we are down to the final stretch of the season. This is the time of year where we find out what players are really made of. I think Mr. Alvin Kamara has become everyone’s favorite player, and my choice for Rookie of the Year.

That being said, I am currently on a flight to see my beloved Bucs of Tampa Bay take on the Brett Hundley led cheeseheads in Green Bay. Why am I flying to Lambeau in December to see two teams that won’t make the playoffs? Well, I actually booked the trip with my dad and brother a while back, and a true fan will never give up on his team (especially when Aaron Rodgers is out and you might have a chance to sneak one out at Lambeau).

Remember, these are just value plays under $6,000 so use them sparingly surrounding some superstars. With Christmas just around the corner, let’s see what toys Santa has whipped out of the attic in time for the Week 13 slate:

QB

Jameis Winston | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK Salary: $5,600

Jameis is back, but I’m not sure if that news is actually good or bad. Returning from a shoulder injury, Winston will look to try to find a W in Green Bay against the 30th ranked defensive unit in the league. In 4 of the 6 games Winston has finished this year, he has amassed at least 300 yards passing. Brett Hundley is another interesting option at $5,100 as he is coming off his best game of the season at Pittsburgh, where he tossed 3 TDs against a good secondary. Jameis will be less than 8% owned with all of the QBs to choose from, and a unique option as most people will be weary of his injured shoulder. To be honest, I can’t blame them! Still, $5,600 is a steal for a talented QB with a dream matchup.

 

We think Jameis is a safe bet to toss for 300 yards against a feeble Packers secondary

Andy Dalton | Cincinatti Bengals – DK Salary: $5,300

Ginger snap Dalton will be hosting the divisional rival Pittsburgh Steelers at home this week. If we can extrapolate anything from last week, we can remember the Steelers barely beating the Packers with a last second field goal. Hundley and the Packers drove right over the Steelers with consistency. I don’t think the Steelers Defense is as stout as we once thought a few weeks ago. In a game which could easily turn into a theoretical barn burner, I like Dalton for a few thousand pesos.

RB

Devonta Freeman | Atlanta Falcons | DK Salary: $5,700

Freeman is coming back from a concussion and going against an elite Minnesota Vikings front. However, this is the lowest I can remember Freeman being priced in years, and I just can’t let that slip. Freeman is looking to get back into his groove, and I think he is capable of putting up RB1 numbers even against the Vikings.

Devonta Freeman returns to lead back status in Atlanta

Adrian Peterson | Arizona Cardinals | DK Salary: $4,800

Still not sure why AP is so cheap this week, as the Cardinals will look to continue to lean on him. His shear volume alone is worth playing for at $4,800, and this might be one of the last few games he will ever play. The Rams score tons of points, but they’ve also been known to give them up. The Rams front is ranked 31st in the league, and AP is sure to find some holes.

WR

Dede Westbrook | Jacksonville Jaguars | DK Salary: $4,100

Westbrook will be playing against the spineless Colts from Indianapolis. Your Boy Dede (YBD) has not been able to make much use out of his 16 targets over the last two games. I believe this will be the breakout game we have all been looking for from YBD. They need to get him going to have a shot of a run in the playoffs, and many of us are hoping he can also make a difference for the season long fantasy playoffs. Taking off in a cake matchup will play a major factor in dictating his viability moving forward.

Dede Westbrook looks to take advantage of a horrendous Colts secondary missing Rashaan Melvin

Josh Gordon | Cleveland Browns | DK Salary: $4,100

Casey Hayward can’t cover both Gordon and Corey Coleman at the same time. Coleman is technically the Browns #1 option, and most believe Gordon will be as rusty as an old nail. The return of my favorite player in the NFL comes in a game where the Chargers are double digit favorites. A few 50/50 balls in Gordon’s direction and he can do some damage. I actually expect Gordon to pick up right where he left off with 100 yards and a score this week. With all the stories out there about how much this guy used to smoke and drink before games, just imagine what he might do on Sunday when he’s actually sober!

TE

OJ Howard | Tampa Bay Buccanners | DK Salary: $2,800

Look it here – The Bucs are really bad. Last year, they spent their first round pick on a guy who has had two great games. Furthermore, Cameron Brate has had exactly one catch over his last four games. I think it’s time the Bucs dig deep to see what they have with the Rookie from Bama. I like Howard to have another potentially explosive game with Jameis back in the saddle. For under $3,000, Howard has as good of a chance as any at the TE spot for a big day.

Howard is due for another explosive game

Defense/Special Teams

New England Patriots | DK Salary: $3,300

I feel like I’m in Vegas on the craps table hitting payday roll after roll with no 7s or 11s being tossed. I have been on the Pats for a few weeks now and why stop now? I knew they would figure it out, and now they are playing a distressed Buffalo Bills team. The Pats look for real again, as they do in every December.

For more sleepers, tune into to our weekly edition of Toys in the Attic exclusively on the DailyPlayAction.

The Dodging Tilt Podcast | NFL Week 13

Krallywood joins forces with John Huish of the Dodging Tilt DFS Podcast to breakdown Cash Game and GPP strategy ahead of the Week 13 Main Slate on DraftKings. Krall and Huish go position by position discussing and explaining their favorite studs and value picks for both formats.

 

The Cheat Sheet | Friday 12.1.2017

Below you will find the NBA Cheat Sheet system that I have built to help me cash at a 70% clip this season. Here at the Daily Play Action, our goal is to take you from the grey to the green with our data-driven breakdowns and analysis.

To qualify for the cheat sheet, a player must have a positive DVP (Defense Vs. Position: how a team defends each position) match up (Top 13), and opportunity (20 plus Projected minutes).

The baseline projection for each position is calculated using the average DK points scored by the player, and is then multiplied by that player’s expected minutes.

The Plus/Minus is explained by how far off the baseline projection is from 6x value (The 6x value system projects you to hit at least 300 points if each player hits value, which is almost a guaranteed cash line). This model indicates that each player will have to make up “X” DraftKings Points per Minute to cover the value spread.

NBA CHEAT SHEET 11/28/2017
SalaryPositionPlayerMinsBLPPlus Minus
PG
$9100Curry33.6550.73-9
$8100Lowry35.5343.51-6
$6000Jackson28.8833.52-3
$4400Carter-Williams25.7933.34-1
$4200Hill26.2819.57-5
SG
$8000Oladipo35.2345.51-3
$7900Beal36.4241.39-6
$7900Derozan35.2341.26-6
$6000Batum32.5928.74-8
$5800Holiday32.5427.28-8
SF
$6800Evans32.0238.01-2
$6400Waiters31.2428.85-10
$5500Anderson28.1726.02-7
$5100Simmons32.0229.13-1
$4900Ingles32.1128.43-1
PF
$7600Gordan35.9541.11-4
$7400Green33.5138.53-6
$6700Melo33.1435.25-5
$5600Young33.0428.78-6
$5200Randolph23.2625.64-6
C
$8800Drummond34.6347.2-5
$7800Gasol35.943.28-3
$7500Howard31.3839.88-5
$5800Adams34.2231.39-3
$4800Valenciunas23.2325.68-3
BONUS ** IF KLAY THOMPSON IS OUT
$5500SGFournier34.8933.58Even
$3600SGMcCaw3020.35-1

 

Z-Wills TOP PLAYS

PG Michael Carter Williams | Charlotte Hornets | $4,500

Has MCW finally found a home? Throughout the past few years, Carter-Williams has shown flashes of his rookie year. He usually just doesn’t see the minutes or usage necessary to go off. With Kemba out last game, MCW saw 32 minutes of action and a usage rate of around 25 (very high). He struggled shooting as always, but the boards and assist numbers allowed him to get to the line and hit 5x value. He is facing off against a Miami Heat team that allows players to get to the line more often than almost every team in the league. He is great value for both cash and GPP contests on today’s slate.

Image result for Michael Carter Williams Hornets

MCW IS A TOP VALUE PLAY FOR FRIDAYS 8 GAME SLATE!

SG Victor Oladipo | Indiana Pacers| $8,000

What can I say about Oladipo this year that I haven’t already said?? He does everything you could possibly ask for in a DFS play. Ola’s high usage rate allows him to rack up points and assists in high numbers AND he gets boards. Dipo is a DFS dream. Last time he faced the Raptors, his ceiling was capped by an injury that caused him to miss the 4th quarter and then the next game. He is healthy again, and this time won’t be capped to a 3 Quarter score. Go ahead! Roll him out! And don’t be afraid to stack this game.

SF Jonathan Simmons | Orlando Magic| $5,100

Since joining the starting lineup, Simmons’ usage has actually remained the same. He is a bench player who is one of the primary ball handlers in the second unit. The bonus here is that Simmons is on the court for more time now, which paves the way for more opportunity. Simmons at just $5,100 could very well hit 6x value, and should be a lock for 5x cash value! This Warriors-Magic game is juicy on both sides of the ball due to the fast pace run-and-gun style of both teams, but seriously, pay attention to the injury notes. If Durant, Curry, or Thompson sit, or any combination of the two don’t play, Simmons along with Draymond Green and Evan Fournier (if Klay is out) get massive boosts in usage and DVP alike.

PF Carmelo Anthony | Oklahoma City Thunder | $6,700

Carmelo “I don’t play Defense” Anthony. You know, for awhile there I thought maybe Melo having some superstars around him for once might help him to change his ways. His usage was down, his defensive efficiency was way up, but lately Melo is starting to be Melo again. As I am writing this, I am petitioning the OKC Thunder to allow Melo to wear a hoodie for tonight’s game. All jokes aside Melo comes in with a really good DVP matchup and we all know how he stuffs the sheet in good matchup games. For GPPs, you can count on me locking him in at $6,700.

C Andre Drummond | Detroit Pistons | $8,800

Who else loves Andre Drummond smash spots??? For whatever reason, people just tend to not play Drummond at this price. He sits in that 8%-20% ownership rate. In years past, this was understandable as Andre would need to play a line like 10 points/20 boards to hit value. Even though that is possible every night with him, he just didn’t contribute in many other ways. This year Andre is actually averaging 4 assists a game! To put this in perspective he averaged less than 1 per game over the course of his career. Andre Drummond is the DailyPlayAction’s lock of the night and I advise you get some action on him too facing off against a Washington team that allows true big men to go to town on the boards.

Z-Will’s Top Contrarian Plays

These are the players who don’t chart well but have crazy good DVP matchups that will surely be low owned!

PG George Hill | Sacramento Kings | $4,200

SG Justin Holiday | Chicago Bulls | $5,800

SF Dion Waiters | Miami Heat | $6,400

PF Thaddeous Young | Indiana Pacers | $5,600

C Jonas Valenciunas | Toronto Raptors | $4,800

Other players slated for 6x value!

PG:

Reggie Jackson

SG:

Demar Derozan

Bradley Beal

SF:

Tyreke Evans

Joe Ingles

PF:

Aaron Gordon

Draymond Green

C:

Gasol

Howard

Adams

Z-Will is the DailyPlayAction resident NBA expert, and shares his Cheat Sheets for all main slates on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.

Week 13 Bell-Cows: DraftKings RB Breakdown

STUDS

Todd Gurley – Los Angeles Rams

DraftKings Salary: $8,200

As the focal point of the league’s 4th best offense, Gurley has the potential to be an every week stud for the rest of the season. He hasn’t hit 20 points since Week 9, but he has a great chance to reclaim his elite RB status this week. The Rams will be taking on the Cardinals in Arizona, who allowed him 28.4 fantasy points in their last meeting. With the way the Rams have been rolling, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get a big lead early and hand the offense over to Gurley in the second half. Blaine Gabbert may have had a decent week last week, but he’s hardly good enough to threaten the Rams’ lockdown secondary. With game script and history on his side, Gurley should be in line for a monster game.

The Rams’ offensive captain will lead the charge for them in Arizona.

Leonard Fournette – Jacksonville Jaguars

DraftKings Salary: $7,800

Fournette has been letting me down recently, but I can’t give up on him just yet. His bad ankle may have slowed him down a bit in the last few weeks, but on Wednesday he practiced in full for the first time since Week 10. It’s an encouraging sign that his ankle might finally be healing, which gives hope that he could return to pre-injury form. With Jacksonville hosting their divisional opponent the Indianapolis Colts and trying to gain ground on Tennessee in the playoff race, they should be looking to bring the hammer down with their best offensive weapon and set a statement. They’ve been thriving on physical play all year, and no one embodies that attitude more than Fournette. If they give him 20 carries, as they should, you should expect 20+ points.

Christian McCaffrey – Carolina Panthers

DraftKings Salary: $7,200

McCaffrey hasn’t been a popular pick for me this season, but he’s been showing a new element to his game that he was lacking early on. Even though his carry totals have remained low, his YPC average has been much better over the last 3 weeks. In each of those games, he’s been above 4 YPC while managing 3 TDs over that span. His receiving totals have been down in the last 2 games, but he should be a big part of the passing game in New Orleans this week. The Saints have one of the league’s best secondaries, led by rookie sensation Marshon Lattimore. With Funchess getting shadowed by the shutdown rookie, McCaffrey will be a go-to receiver for Cam Newton. If he can remain effective in the running game, he’s a strong candidate to hit 20+ fantasy points for the 3rd time in 4 weeks.

McCaffrey is in line for a big role as his team looks for a statement win in the Superdome.

SURE-FIRE

Jordan Howard – Chicago Bears

DraftKings Salary: $6,500

Ok, so Howard may have put up a dud last time I recommended him, but I believe in second chances. In fantasy football you have to, because the clown who burned you one game is gonna be the same guy that goes off for your opponent the next week. Thus, we arrive back at Howard. His performance last week might not have looked too pretty either, but his opponent last week – the Eagles – are in a different class than the Bears and are sporting the best run D in the league. His opponent this week is in a class of their own: bum class. Jimmy Garropolo could turn things around for San Fran’s offense, but he can’t play defense for them. That’s where the real magic happens for Howard owners, as the Niners are on the opposite end of the spectrum from his last opponent. He’s had a pattern of one 100+ yd game every other week since Week 6, I’m hoping that pattern repeats itself and he gives us a great value play.

Carlos Hyde – San Fransisco 49ers

DraftKings Salary: $5,900

It’s impressive to see Hyde continuously scrape out decent performances amidst a shitshow of offense from the Niners. Even against a tough opponent like the Seahawks, Hyde found a way to salvage his day with a 7 catch performance. It was an inefficient day overall, but still an impressive feat for Hyde to avoid a dud in that situation. It’s the consistency that we’ve come to expect from Hyde, but we could finally start to see some cohesion from the rest of the Niners’ offense now that Jimmy Garoppolo is taking over the starting QB duties. If Garoppolo is as good as he’s hyped to be, Hyde could stop seeing so many stacked boxes and start seeing some work in the 4th quarter as a clock-killer. It will be interesting to see what transpires in Sunday’s game in Chicago, as the Bears are a bad enough team to fall behind to an improved 49ers’ offense. Hyde should get plenty of work either way, so he’s easily one of the safest plays in his price range.

Mr. Consistency may finally get a chance to run wild in the 4th quarter.

Latavius Murray – Minnesota Vikings

DraftKings Salary: $5,200

After getting buried on the depth chart in the first couple months of the season, Murray has experienced a resurgence over the last several weeks. The man once notorious for his low YPC average has been over 4 YPC in 4 of the last 5 games, hitting 6 YPC in two of those contests. He’s had at least 15 carries a game since Week 6, scoring at least 12.8 fantasy points in all but 2 of those games. With everything working in his favor and his team rolling in the NFC, I don’t see any reason why his production should slow down in this week’s matchup in Atlanta. Sure, Atlanta has played a few good games in a row, but they’re run D is below average and shouldn’t be much of a challenge for Minnesota’s run-heavy offense. Expect around 18 touches for Murray with a high likelihood to reach the end zone.

VALUE

Rex Burkhead – New England Patriots

DraftKings Salary: $5,000

After seeing Burkhead blow up again last week against Miami, it’s becoming obvious that the only person who can stop him from producing is himself. The only time he’s been under double digit fanasty points was when he put himself in Belichick’s doghouse by fumbling the ball. He only had 2 catches last week, but was given a season-high 13 carries while scoring on the ground and through the air. There’s a lot of competition in New England’s backfield, but Burkhead has been the most consistent fantasy option of the bunch since returning from injury. The Pats will need all the help they can get in the receiving game until Hogan returns from injury, so Burkhead should remain in the mix for carries and receptions against the Bills this week.

Burkhead has taken on a key role as a rusher and a receiver in the Patriot’s offense.

Marshawn Lynch – Oakland Raiders

DraftKings Salary: $4,800

It’s been a roller coaster season for Lynch in the first few months, but he seems to be hitting his stride in Oakland’s offense once again. After scoring only 2 TDs in the first 7 weeks, Lynch has found the end zone 3 times over the last 3 weeks. He saw 20+ carries for the first time all season, turning it into his second 20+ fantasy point game. Much of that was due to the absence of Crabtree and Cooper for most of the game, which depleted the arsenal of reliable options in Oakland’s offense. With Crabtree suspended and Cooper looking doubtful to play, the offense should lean heavily on Lynch once again. With a favorable tilt against the Giants’ bottom-tier run D up ahead, he has a great chance for his 3rd 20+ fantasy point performance in the last 4 weeks.

Jamal Williams – Green Bay Packers

DraftKings Salary: $4,700

With both of the other Green Bay RBs out with injury, Williams has turned into a fairly valuable fantasy commodity over the last month. The YPC average is poor, but he’s getting the job done with a high volume of carries and steady involvement in the passing game. His 2 TD, 135 yd performance against the Steelers last week was his best game yet, so he may have earned himself an uptick in usage going forward. Both RBs still seem to be at least a week away from playing, but he’ll likely maintain the lead duties even if one of them can give it a go on Sunday. He’s got a soft matchup against Tampa Bay’s Pop Warner D on the slate, so he has a great chance to be one of the best value plays of the week.

Williams may have earned the starting RB job after his impressive effort against Pittsburgh.

Stay tuned for more breakdowns for every slate on DraftKings at the Daily Play Action.

Shark’s Spreads | NFL Week 13

Vegas is seeing red.

They’re feeling it, too, based on the number of big favorites blowing out their opponents. Faves, with whom the betting public always sides, covered ATS 37-16-4 in November, 12-4 this past week. This reverses a trend from earlier in the season, so don’t feel too sorry for the Wise Guys.

But there is another aspect to the blowout that influences wagerers. In a world of stats and algorithms, fans look to the most recent results when making their picks. The Bills had been in total freefall, and the Chiefs had full wagering support at home on Sunday. The Packers had been shut out at home and the thinking was they would be rolled over like an IRA at Pittsburgh. But the NFL has a real ebb-and-flow quality to it, and teams that were embarrassed one week often come back strong the next, assuming they have the weapons to do so. They just want it more than their opponent. And there are those that make a living by betting against the obvious trends, embracing more of a law of averages philosophy. Those people would have scored this past Sunday on the above-mentioned games.

So beware the most recent blowout.

Redskins @ Cowboys (Pick ’em)

Shark’s Pick: Redskins

Not quite the glamour to this one that the TV execs first thought for this Thurs. night affair! The ‘Boys have put up 7, 9, and 6 points in their last three, all losses, and averaged 235 yards of offense. That’s when they’re not turning the ball over, as they have 7 times in that span. Redskins have a recent victory over only the moribund Giants, but kept it close against the Vikings and Saints. RB Samaje Perine is improving, and OT Trent Williams will be back protecting Captain Kirk. The Momentum Meter could swing back to Dallas, but I’m betting on Pocahontas’s favorite team coming to play.

Lions @ Ravens (-2.5)

Shark’s Pick: Ravens

The Ravens have cobbled together wins in three of their last four against mostly injury-plagued teams, but then again Baltimore has been hit hard as well in this category. Their defense, in spite of three shutouts this year, struggled somewhat against Houston and made QB Tom Savage look decent at times. Hard running Ravens’ RB Alex Collins could be out, and that won’t help them. The Lions are considered a passing team, but reality says they’re just so-so, and Matt Stafford has a gimpy ankle. The Ravens ARE as a pass-defending team, trailing only the Jags in passing yards allowed. I wouldn’t give any more than 3 points, but at that line I like Crab City and the home-field advantage they generally enjoy.

49ers @ Bears (-3)

Shark’s Pick: 49ers

With 322 offensive yds/game, the Niners are ahead of 11 teams in that category. But they are worse in red zone stats, reaching paydirt just 48% of the time. In the Windy City, “Bears offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains suggests that some of Mitchell Trubisky’s off-target throws last Sunday were due to receivers not running the proper routes.” (ESPN).  Potato-potahto. This game features the much-anticipated return of Jimmy Garoppolo in his hometown; SF does have Carlos Hyde, and WR Marquise Goodwin averages 21.4 yards/catch. I say Jimmy G. keeps ’em close.

“Check me out on the Jumbotron. God, I’m handsome.”

Vikings @ Falcons (-3)

Shark’s Pick: Vikings

The betting public is evenly split on this one, and with good reason. Hotlanta, after dropping 4 of 5, has won three straight and scored 95 in the process. They’re still looking up at the Saints and Panthers in the NFC South, and are tasked with getting by one of the NFC’s premier teams. The Vikes play tough defense and keep the chains moving on offense. They don’t have speed burners at WR, but four receivers have 36+ catches, and Case Keenum and Adam Thielen must be going steady, with the latter having 107 targets/70 catches/1005 yards. Not bad for an undrafted free agent. At 4-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record, sound the Viking horn and take your 3 points.

Patriots (-9) @ Bills

Shark’s Pick: Patriots

Both teams do well ATS, New England on the road in particular; they’ve only lost one game outright in Buffalo in the last 10 years. But let’s be real… in the Patriots’ inexorable march to Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis (and how great would it be if they faced the Vikings there?), their biggest opponent will be boredom. Seriously, Belichick will tell his troops the Bills are dangerous, Miami is a force, the Jets a dynasty. So throw out the stats here, this pick comes down to how motivated the Pats are to come out and be the TB12 Roboboy-led juggernaut we all know they can be. Winners of 7 straight, six of those by 7 pts. or more, I think the Pats get it done.

Broncos (-1.5) @ Dolphins

Shark’s Pick: Dolphins

So you were a pretty decent QB in high school, and only looking for a shot? Call the Broncos, I guarantee they’ll take your call. These two proud franchises, who drafted and rode John Elway and Dan Marino, can only dream of better days. Should be a low scoring affair, and impossible to know (a) who will be at QB for either team, or (b) if it even matters. The Broncos are ranked 2nd in giveaways, so why not go for the Dolphins to take a stab at covering.

Gratuitous knock-knock joke:

Knock-knock”

“Who’s there?”

“Aqib Talib”

“What you want?”

“A raise – today.”

“Seriously?!”

“Naw, man…I’m just YANKIN’ YER CHAIN!!”

Texans @ Titans (-6.5)

Shark’s Pick: Texans

In this season of giving, few are more charitable than the Tom Savage-led Texans, who continue to struggle with interceptions and fumbles. With his coaches characterizing each miscue as a “learning moment”, the QB could be Stephen Hawking by the end of the year. Yet Jadeveon Clowney and DeAndre Hopkins have emerged as truly special players, ones that can dominate a game, and Houston is NFL’s 3rd best defense against RBs from a fantasy points perspective. Shocking to see the Titans as winners of 5 of last 6, as they seem so benign. I foresee an underdog covering here…

Colts @ Jaguars (-9.5)

Shark’s Pick: Jaguars

This feels like one of those games in which the Colts keep it close due to the Jag’s lack of a high-powered offense. Then in the 4th quarter, the Sacksonville defense chimes in with a pick six and a scoop’n’score (they have four already) to blow it open. Stats are important in this one: Indy has given up a league high 47 sacks so far, and Jacoby Brissett gave up the ghost five times in these teams’ last encounter.  The Jags defense, of course, leads the league with 41 sacks.

Buccaneers (-1.5) @ Packers

Shark’s Pick: Packers

Tempting to go with a “December football at Lambeau Field against a Florida team” theme, but most of that was based on Aaron Rodgers…and the forecast says 47 degrees in Green Bay Sunday, so…what is trending is QB Brett Hundley’s better play. Shut out in a horrific display at home against the Ravens two weeks ago, the Green Bay quarterback tossed three scores and no picks against an above average Pittsburgh defense. Bucs defense surrenders an astonishing 44 FP/game to WRs, 6 points more than the second-worst offending team (Pats). Look for WR Davante Adams to take several Lambeau Leaps this Sunday.

Brett Hundley has actually looked like a real NFL QB as of late

Chiefs (-3) @ Jets

Shark’s Pick: Chiefs

With the Chiefs having turned their season around in the bad way (5-0 start to 1-5 since), there are calls for rookie QB Patrick Mahomes to take over for Alex Smith. Alex Smith is not the problem. The problem is the offense used a lot of cute, trick plays at the start of the season that opponents have now seen on film, and KC cannot get their running game going. Kareem Hunt had only 5 touches in the first half last week, as opposing teams are stacking the box against him. Also, where has Tyreek Hill been lately? NYJ also have only one win over their last six, but they sure hang tough at MetLife Stadium. Problem is, it’s only a 3 point spread. KC was barbecued at home last week, I think they simplify things and get it done this Sunday.

Panthers @ Saints (-4.5)

Shark’s Pick: Panthers

This should be a highly entertaining game, with both teams featuring marquee QBs that are proven winners. The Saints feature rookie RB Alvin Kamara, November’s Offensive Rookie of the Month with 594 yards from scrimmage and 6 TDs. But this week he tries to pick holes through All-World LB Luke Kuechly & Co., rated #2 in the NFL against the run. Carolina is letting Cam be Cam this year, and he’s getting his mojo back at a great time.

Browns @ Chargers (-13.5)

Shark’s Pick: Chargers

The LA Chargers are a really nice story this year.  After a hurried move to LA and an 0-4 start, they have jelled behind coach Anthony Lynn to win five of their next seven – losses to only the Patriots and Jags on the road. The Browns, with Isaiah Crowell, have a decent rushing attack, which is the achilles’ heel of the Bolts defense, which yields an ungodly 4.9 yds/carry. I kinda wanna pick the Brownies, but what am I thinking? They haven’t come within more than 14 points of their opponent on the road yet (not counting Indy), and Philip Rivers, last week’s AFC Offensive Player of the Week is ramping it up with a balanced offensive attack. Thanks for talking me off that ledge, that was close…

Can Deshone Kizer lead the Browns to their 1st win this year? Probably not.

Rams (-7) @ Cardinals

Shark’s Pick: Rams

If you evaluate this game solely on the merits of the offenses and defenses, the Rams win.  But consider also the oft-neglected kicking game. Rams’ placekicker Greg Zuerlein is having a career year with 32 field goals on 34 attempts through 11 games – including a 16-of-17 success rate on kicks of 40 yards or longer.  Contrast that with the field-goal follies of the Cards, the team that gave us Martin Gramatica for the best comic relief since Garo Yepremian (google his pass attempt). Kicker Phil Dawson has missed on six of his 23 field-goal attempts, including four from 30-39 yards. And Fun Fact of the Week: Arizona’s opponents have converted 100% of their field goal and PAT attempts in 2017.  Ha! That’s the kind of thing that gives you cover confidence in the Rams

Giants @ Raiders (-9)

Shark’s Pick: Giants

Good thing the Giants are still on the road… they’ll be welcomed home next week with about as much enthusiasm as Matt Lauer (thankyouverymuch). Now, in Oakland WR news – Michael Crabtree is suspended, Amari Cooper resembles the knight missing his legs and arms in Monty Python’s Holy Grail; Jared Cook could torch the Giants like any other TE, but Seth Roberts?! Raiders’ rushing game is no better than the Giants’. And at least WR Sterling Shepard is back for the dumpster fire G-Men. Follow my logic: their offense can’t be any worse than it was against the Redskins, and the only thing that would make NY’s season any crazier would be a win Sunday with Geno Smith at the helm. The Giants only two wins this season have come against AFC West opponents (wink wink nudge nudge).

Eagles (-6) @ Seahawks

Shark’s Pick: Eagles

The betting public loves the Eagles, and why not? They are blowing up every conceivable ATS marker, and have failed to cover only twice this year. Carson Wentz is LeBron’s favorite player. You know the Philly fans are giggling to themselves constantly, yet somehow waiting inevitably for the other shoe to drop. I don’t think it happens this week. The Seahawks are an undisciplined, banged up squad (now without Kam Chancellor), carried completely by Russell Wilson’s playmaking ability and Jimmy Graham in the red zone. This week it’s not enough.

What’s he doing to that poor bird?!

Steelers (-5.5) @ Bengals

Shark’s Pick: Bengals

Pittsburgh is riding about the quietest six-game win streak you can imagine, mostly due to underwhelming victories over the Lions, Colts, and Packers. The Bengals are dead last in offense (yards/game) but rookie mouthpiece Joe Mixon had a big day with 165 yards from scrimmage against the Brownies. He’s been throwing shade to Le’Veon Bell, which is just silly, but the Steelers have been playing with house money for too long and are not particularly strong on the road. Look for Cincy to cover here.

Tune in every week for a new edition of The Shark’s take on Vegas – exclusively on the DailyPlayAction.

The Cheat Sheet | Wednesday 11.29.2017

Apr 11, 2017; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) celebrates making a basket against the Denver Nuggets at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Below you will find the NBA Cheat Sheet system that I have built to help me cash at a 70% clip this season. Here at the Daily Play Action, our goal is to take you from the grey to the green with our data-driven breakdowns and analysis.

To qualify for the cheat sheet, a player must have a positive DVP (Defense Vs. Position: how a team defends each position) match up (Top 13), and opportunity (20 plus Projected minutes).

The baseline projection for each position is calculated using the average DK points scored by the player, and is then multiplied by that player’s expected minutes.

The Plus/Minus is explained by how far off the baseline projection is from 6x value (The 6x value system projects you to hit at least 300 points if each player hits value, which is almost a guaranteed cash line). This model indicates that each player will have to make up “X” DraftKings Points per Minute to cover the value spread.

NBA CHEAT SHEET 11/28/2017
        
Salary Position Player MinsBLP+/-
PG
$11,200Westbrook35.0554-13
$7,600Dragic34.5836.45-11
$7,500Walker34.4242.39-3
$5,900Jackson29.6433.34-2
$4,900Rondo24.3122.88-6
SG
$8,400Oladipo31.4540.96-10
$8,100Beal35.1140.63-8
$7,900Derozan35.7341.61-6
$7,400Thompson32.8234.55-10
$4,600Barea31.0631.064
SF
$7,100Warren30.731.14-9
$6,200Covington29.4229.74-7
$6,100Barnes34.4633.12-3
$5,300Anderson26.3424.49-7
$4,000Powell19.6516.29-8
PF
$8,200Porzingis32.6743.23-6
$7,300Green32.2336.72-7
$7,000Gordan31.2234.09-8
$6,500Harris32.1730.66-8
$4,700Anderson31.1824.24-4
C
$9,200Drummond31.8143.23-12
$8,300Gasol35.8544-5
$7,400Capela27.8536.53-8
$7,100Howard32.3440.62-2
$4,800Nowitski28.5427.18-1

PG Reggie Jackson | Detroit Pistons | $5,900

Reggie Jackson is a player who has been hit or miss for his entire DFS career. With people worried about getting burned, he tends to go overlooked. The only correct way of projecting Reggie Jackson is to listen to the numbers. Jackson is projected as the top value point guard on the slate – going up against a Suns team in a back to back game situation. The Suns have allowed opposing point guards to eat at their house this year, allowing top 5 point totals to PG’s. Jackson is also in a pace up situation with these same Suns. All stats point to Jackson clearing 6x value in a can’t miss spot.

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Reggie Jackson projects to be a top PG with low ownership

SG J.J Barea | Dallas Mavericks | $4,600

Jose Juan Barea is THE DPA’s TOP VALUE PLAY as I write this article. On Monday, Barea was ranked in the top 10 of my value system, and I rode him and his 38 DK points right into the green. I really like the Mavs in this spot fantasy-wise. It doesn’t matter if they win or lose, as it kind of makes it more enticing knowing the game will stay close through the 4th quarter. Barea is a spark plug and has a ridiculous usage rate off the bench at 26.4 %. J.J. consistently has the ball in his hands, and continues to be a great value and DVP matchup.

SF Harrison Barnes | Dallas Mavericks |$6,100

As I said, I really like the Mavs in this spot. The Nets are near the bottom of the barrel in defensive efficiency at almost every position. They play super fast paced compared to the Mavs, so Dallas will need to play faster to keep up. Barnes keeps getting to the point where you don’t want to roster him salary-wise, and then his salary drops as he under performs his high price tag. I think the right spot to lock him in is in the $5,700-$6,400 range. He has the best DVP matchup on the slate at small forward, and also at the 4, where he slides to quite often. Barnes is my lock of the night.

PF Aaron Gordon | Orlando Magic |$7,000

I guess I just really like the color blue today! Aaron Gordon is at a great price point at $7,000. He has dropped in price and ownership, but is still that player in the right spot who can explode for 60 plus DK points. He faces off against an OKC Thunder team that is allowing the 3rd most DK points to Power Forwards over the past 5 games. They have faced off against 1 real stud in Demarcus Cousins, and the rest have been players similar to Gordon who require the right situation to succeed. (Barnes, Harris, Green, Aldridge). Tonight, all you need to do is add Aaron Gordon to the list of 4’s who have absolutely torn up abysmal Carmelo Anthony defense. The Thunder haven’t used George to guard the 4 much, and I expect him to lock on to Fournier, while Roberson is on Simmons. Gordon is a low key smash spot here, shhhhhh!

Image result for Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon is a sneaky GPP play on a huge Wednesday Slate.

C Dirk Nowitzki | Dallas Mavericks |$4,800

Can anyone say Mavs Stack??? I swear I’m not a Dallas fan, I’m just typing what the data shows! This strategy should be super sneaky as people hate playing players from the same team. The enticing part of the Mavs vs. Nets game is the fact that it shouldn’t get out of hand. Vegas has actually opened with the Nets being 5 point favorites with a game total of 212. I would stack against the Nets every night if I could trust that they wouldn’t be down 20 at some point in the game. I’ll eat that 5 point cheese. Dirk has been Dirk incredibly at his age. At $4,800 he only needs 28 points to clear 6x value. I think in this spot he certainly has 7x value upside, especially with his minutes creeping back towards 30 per night. MAVS STACK LADIES AND GENTLEMAN! YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!

INJURY WATCH

As I write this, a lot of the injury questions have yet to have been answered. Keep a watch on these to see where you can turn to for “lock” value.

DeRozan: Missed Monday’s practice, but practiced Tuesday. He is dealing with a bone bruise that could see him sit out a game. If he does, lock in Norman Powell for 7x value!

Curry and Durant: Focus on McCaw if Curry is out, and Cassipi if Durant is out. If both are out, Klay and Draymond get huge value boosts!

Other players to look at:

PG:

Kemba Walker

SG:

Bradley Beal

SF:

Robert Covington

PF:

Ryan Anderson

C:

Dwight Howard!

Stay tuned for more from Z-Will as he sheds light and insight on the Monday-Wednesday-Friday NBA Main Slates – exclusively on the DailyPlayAction.

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