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THE DAILY PUCK DROP – 10/16/2021 – NHL DFS MAIN SLATE

Hi, it’s Sam Duchesneau or @GronkDFS on Twitter once again! We have a massive 12 game slate tonight on the 1st Saturday of the season! Last night was a success for DPA members as I recommended them to lock VAN2 in all formats and they managed to break the slate!

Prior to getting started, please note that I am available to take your questions in the DPA Slack Chat by opting into the Playmaker Gold Package, so subscribe, and send me your lineups and your questions so that I can put you in the best position to cash tonight! The DPA team has been thriving with the NHL content so what are you waiting for?

PIT1 Cash Stack: Guentzel – Carter – Heinen

Fanduel: $17,200 (31% of salary) / DraftKings: $14,700 (29% of salary)

It might come as a surprise to some, but I believe PIT1 is a far better stack than the chalky TOR1. First and foremost, this line has been excellent to start the season and they are reasonably priced. The injury to Bryan Rust gives us a value play in Danton Heinen ($2500 on DK/$4000 on FD). Chicago is an awful defensive team and I will certainly attack them all season long. PIT1 doesn’t have a big enough sample size yet but after watching 2 games, they are generated a lot of HDC and scoring chances. As for their matchup, they will be matching up against CHI3 for 70% of the game but they’ll end up facing CHI1 for most of the game. CHI1 owns a ridiculously awful 33SCA, 13HDCA, and a 2.88xGA. While this is the best stack of the night on paper, they should still be under-owned as their vegas total is only 3.2 goals.

Other viable stacks: TOR1 (Ritchie, Tavares, and Marner); VAN2 (Miller, Petterson, and Hoglander); EDM1 (Draisatl, McDavid, and Puljujarvi)

SEA1 GPP Stack: Schwartz – McCcan – Eberle

Fanduel: $14,700 (27% of salary) / DraftKings: $14,600 (29% of salary)

I had solid hopes for this line and they have not disappointed yet. I like this line because they are fully correlated at 5v5 and on PP1 which gives them the full game upside. I’m also interested in this line because they’re all reasonably priced and as a stack, they are quite cheap. Finally, I looked at the numbers and they will be matching up against CBJ2 for 75% of the game as they own a laughable 33SCA, 11HDCA, and a 2.7xGA. It’s a very sneaky stack that will come under-owned mainly due to their too low total of 2.8 goals.

Other viable stacks: WPG1 (Connor, Scheifele, and Wheeler); CBJ1 (Laine, Texier, and Voracek); NYR1 (Kreider, Zibanejad, and Lafreniere)

Favorite plays

Centers

Connor McDavid | $9000 (FD) | $8700 (DK)

While this is not the absolute best matchup for McDavid, you can’t fade him (in Cash). There isn’t a single stud on this slate with the kind of floor McDavid provides and his elite upside. Fun fact, even though Calgary isn’t that bad defensively, McDavid annihilated them last season with multiple 3 points games and one 5 points game! Fade at your own risk.

Jeff Carter | $5900 (FD) | $5400 (DK)

Carter was so good with the Penguins last season despite a small number of games. He came back this season with the same rhythm with 3 points in 2 games! Awesome play tonight.

Honorable Mentions: Draisatl (Winger on DK), Aho, Zibanejad, Tavares, Scheifele, Petterson, Horvat, Trocheck, McCann, Rodrigues, Eriksson Ek, Roslovic, and Texier

Wingers

Jake Guentzel | $7300 (FD) | $6800 (DK)

I want full exposure to PIT1 today in cash and in GPP. Guentzel is the stud from PIT1 and a must tonight.

Nick Ritchie | $4300 (FD) | $3300 (DK)

Ritchie hasn’t quite done anything yet but the same could be said about TOR1. Their matchup is extremely good and he is playing on TOR1 with Tavares and Marner. I’ll take the value and move on to the defenseman position.

Honorable Mentions: Kucherov, Panarin, Marner, Kaprizov, Connor, Miller, Ehlers, Nylander, RNH, Wheeler, Bjorkstrand, Hyman, Teravainen, Necas, Garland, Laine, Lafreniere, Kakko, Kreider, Eberle, Schwartz, Hoglander, Puljujarvi, Voracek, Kapanen, Bunting, Zuccarello, Heinen, Kotkaniemi, Copp, Donskoi, Nyquist, and Dahlen (DK only)

Defenseman

Zach Werenski | $4900 (FD) | $6400 (DK)

Werenski is beyond too cheap on FD compared to DK. On DK, he is overpriced though. I like both sides of the CBJ vs SEA game and I expect Werenski to be a part of the offense.

Matt Dumba | $4400 (FD) | $4100 (DK)

Dumba plays solid minutes and despite being cheap, he can manage to get the shot bonus or block shot bonus here and there. Very solid for his price.

Honorable Mentions: Hedman, Makar, Hughes, Fox, Rielly, Barrie, Nurse, Chabot, Petry, Giordano, Pionk, Burns (FD), Karlsson, Morrisey, Marino, and Brodin

Goaltenders

Jeremy Swayman | $7800 (FD) | $8200 (DK)

I genuinely do not love a single goalie today but I do believe the Bruins manage to win in their season opener at home. Whoever wins this game, should be a low-scoring one.

Frederik Andersen | $7700 (FD) | $7300 (DK)

This is more GPP as I do expect goals from both sides but Nashville can be a weak offense at times and Carolina is clearly the better team on paper.

Honorable Mentions: Campbell, and Jarry

Recap

I like a lot of offense players today while I found myself not liking many goaltenders and defensemen. I’ll start my night with a lot of PIT1 in all formats alongside TOR1, and EDM1. As for GPP (playable in cash too), I am all over SEA1, WPG1, VAN2 (Petterson line), CBJ1, CBJ2, SEA2. Then, I’ll have a few shares of TB1, TOR2, NYR1, and PIT2. Good luck fellas!

Thank you very much for taking the time to catch up on your NHL DFS with Daily Play Action. Premium members, please take note that a Slack Q+A follow-up for the NHL Main Slate will take place at 6:00 PM until lock. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @DailyPlayAction and my personal Twitter @GronkDFS where you can find the most updated info and analysis on all of the league’s DFS developments.

UFC Vegas 40: Ladd vs Dumont – 10.16.2021 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 40: Ladd vs Dumont. It is a nice little slate of fights but certainly not a card that has the highest profile athletes. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values control time and reversals. This new year, DraftKings has also added a quick win bonus for victories in the first minute as well as scoring for non-significant strikes. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value. Optimal GPP builds very rarely stack the same fight but it can be a viable strategy in cash games.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses if you want to bet on any of these picks.

Lastly, if you are in search of even more combat sports content be sure to visit RingwormMMA.com! This site is dedicated to providing MMA, boxing and gambling content to fight fans around the world.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 227-159-4 (Last Year 223-145-6)
  • Nick: 231-155-4 (Last Year 235-133-6)
  • GB: 218-168-4 (Last Year 216-152-6)

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 8:30 AM EST 10-16-2021

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:30pm EST

Ariane Carnelossi -140 (DK $8500, FD $16) vs Istela Nunes +115 (DK $7700, FD $14)

  • Anthony: Our card opens today with a women’s strawweight bout between Ariane Carnelossi and Istela Nunes. Carnelossi is a highly aggressive fighter. She has a negative striking differential but that is because her two UFC bouts thus far have been firefights. The power of Carnelossi can cause a lot of problems for opponents both at range and in the clinch. Nunes is getting a tough ask here in her promotional debut. There is a lot to like about Nunes such as her size and speed in comparison to Carnelossi. She has yet to rack up any impressive wins though and I don’t see her hitting Carnelossi hard enough to stop her forward momentum. It is a close fight but I do believe Carnelossi to be the rightful favorite. Ten of her professional wins have come by finish, including a stoppage of Liang Na in her last time out. She should get the job done here. Ariane Carnelossi by Round Three KO
  • Nick: This is a low-level matchup at strawweight and not a fight I’m particularly interested in. Carnelossi is coming off a solid win over Na Liang. She was rocked early in that spot and recovered nicely to ground Liang and finish via KO in the second round. She’s very well built for the weight class, carrying a lot of muscle with decent power and explosiveness. Her striking is far from refined and most of her success has come by overwhelming inferior opponents. Isleta Nunes is primarily a striker. She’s effective both at range and in the clinch, but there are a lot of questions surrounding her form here as she’s been out of action since 2018 due to a USADA suspension. Carnelossi is going to have a power and grappling advantage here, but there is really no denying Nunes is the more technically sound striker. This one could certainly go either way, but it feels like Carnelossi should eventually find a way to close distance and either ground this fight or connect on something damaging. This is a low confidence pick, but I’m siding with the favorite. Ariane Carnelossi by Decision
  • GB: Ariane Carnelossi by Decision

Danaa Batgerel -160 (DK $8600, FD $17) vs Brandon Davis +130 (DK $7600, FD $12)

  • Anthony: Next up is a bantamweight bout between Danaa Batgerel and Brandon Davis. This is the start of Davis’ second UFC stint after being cut from the promotion in 2019. Since then he has accrued four solid wins and looks to be in excellent shape for this weight class. Davis has shared the cage with some of the world’s best featherweights, so I am not too concerned about a matchup like this. Batgerel is a very powerful striker for this division. His knockouts against Guido Cannetti and Kevin Natividad were both finished by a beautiful left hook. While I appreciate those clean strikes, it must be noted that neither of those opponents have great chins. I think Davis is the type of fighter that can eat most of what Batgerel throws while continuing to pressure forward with his own high-volume strikes. It is a very close fight and one of the more fun bouts on the card. I expect it to be standing for the full fifteen minutes unless either fighter finds a finish. My pick here is Davis as he has the frame and style to cause a lot of problems for Batgerel. I trust him to fight for my dollar and work hard to out volume an opponent who is hunting for counter strikes. Brandon Davis by Decision
  • Nick: We have a really fun matchup here between two aggressive bantamweights. Danaa Batgerel is an extremely powerful and technical striker. We haven’t really seen him tested against a high level of competition, but he is coming off a nice KO win over Kevin Natividad. Brandon Davis was cut from the UFC following consecutive losses in 2019, but he makes his return here having fought for Gulf Coast MMA back in August. Many felt Davis shouldn’t have been released, as his last two UFC losses came via split decision to tough competition in Kyung Ho Kang and Giga Chikadze. He’s extremely aggressive, well-rounded and he’s not afraid to eat shots to throw them. This is a close fight and a tough one to call with confidence, but I like Davis’ chances as the underdog. Davis should have a reach advantage here. He’s shown solid durability which should be enough for him to withstand Batgerel’s strength. Batgerel is live for the KO here, but Davis has shown an excellent chin. This one could go either way, but I prefer the value on the underdog. Brandon Davis by Decision
  • GB: Danaa Batgerel by Round Three KO

Lupita Godinez -230 (DK $9000, FD $19) vs Luana Carolina +185 (DK $7200, FD $12)

  • Anthony: After earning a win at strawweight just one week ago, Lupita Godinez steps up on short notice here for a fight against Luana Carolina at flyweight. Godinez wiped the floor with debutant Silvana Gomez Juarez in that bout. She looked incredible and now makes the shortest turnaround in UFC history. Godinez is well versed everywhere but the grappling heavy gameplan she just implemented should work wonders again here. Carolina has very suspect wrestling and grappling. Godinez will be the much smaller fighter moving up from the 115-pound limit she competed at last week. She was under 122 pounds at weigh-ins. Despite the size difference I think she still lands takedowns on Carolina, just holding her down may be a struggle. It is probably a more competitive fight on the feet but I still lean the way of Godinez to get the job done. At these odds I unfortunately won’t be touching either side. Lupita Godinez by Decision
  • Nick: Lupita Godinez will be looking to make history here, as she’s coming off a win just one week ago. She absolutely dominated Silvana Gomez Juarez in that spot, overwhelming her and getting the submission victory in the first round. Godinez is primarily a striker. She does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents and her technical ability is impressive for someone in only their third UFC matchup. Carolina should certainly offer more resistance here, but I still expect she’s going to be outmatched. If she can keep this fight at striking range I could see her having some success, but it seems far more likely that Godinez should be able to overwhelm her here. Carolina does her best work striking at range, but Godinez should have more than enough durability to close the distance. Lupita Godinez by Decision
  • GB: Lupita Godinez by Round One Submission

Ramazan Emeev -375 (DK $9100, FD $22) vs Danny Roberts +285 (DK $7100, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Next up is a welterweight bout between Ramazan Emeev and Danny Roberts. I am not surprised to see the odds so lopsided for this one. Emeev has done the M-1 promotion proud going 5-1 since entering the UFC. His only loss was a close fight against Anthony Rocco Martin. All those bouts went to a decision as Emeev implements that classic Russian wrestling to control his opponents. He will take sloppy shots on occasion but has yet to really be punished for doing so. Roberts is a striker and I really do not see him posing much of a threat to Emeev here. The shorter and stronger man should have no problem taking this fight to the mat. Roberts defends just 53 percent of opponent takedowns and thus I expect him to be grounded for a large portion of this one. Roberts’ has a nice win over Oliver Enkamp but his other victories are against fighters much less skilled than Emeev. I see the Russian dominating this fight and winning by either decision or late finish. He has yet to really exceed value for DFS but I think he flirts with 100 points on DraftKings today. Ramazan Emeev by Decision
  • Nick: Emeev is a pressure grappler, he does a good job maintaining dominant position over a wide range of opponents. He has excellent takedown ability via both sweeps and more traditional single-leg entries. He’s not the most exciting fighter to watch, but he has a very high Fight IQ and leans on his strengths to consistently add wins to his resume. Emeev’s takedown ability and his chain wrestling makes him an enticing DFS play. I expect him to fight a smart reserved fight and grind out the decision as a favorite here against an opponent in Danny Roberts who hasn’t fought since November of 2019. Robert a decent striker with solid footwork, but his chin is extremely suspect as three of his five professional losses have come via KO. He has underrated offensive grappling ability with decent BJJ, but he’s likely going to be outmuscled here by a powerful wrestler like Emeev. Ramazan Emeev by Decision
  • GB: Danny Roberts by Decision

Bruno Silva -160 (DK $8300, FD $18) vs Andrew Sanchez +130 (DK $7900, FD $13)

  • Anthony: The prelims close at middleweight as Bruno Silva takes on Andrew Sanchez. Silva had been an absolute wrecking ball prior to signing to the UFC. Unfortunately, he failed a drug test and was slapped with a two-year suspension prior to his first fight with the promotion. That scared me off him when he faced Wellington Turman in June, but he ended up winning by early knockout in that fight just as he had in many prior. I am not yet convinced he can win without PEDs and do not take much stock from that KO as Andrew Sanchez finished Turman in a similar way just prior. Sanchez has been a bit of an enigma lately as his old wrestling style has given way to a far more strike-oriented approach. He simply cannot stand and trade with Silva in this fight so I am fully expecting we see the wrestling shoes pulled out here. Silva likes to pressure forward and throw very heavy hands. If Sanchez does not shoot on his own in this bout I imagine he winds up doing so defensively at some point. He should be able to ground Silva and take advantage of that grappling edge to get his hand raised. If it is a technical striking match I like his chances as well, but Silva certainly poses a threat on the feet that cannot be underestimated. At these odds, give me the underdog. Andrew Sanchez by Decision
  • Nick: Andrew Sanchez’s greatest strength is certainly his grappling ability, but he’s been falling in love with his striking lately. He has taken on a fun and entertaining karate style and he’s had some success peppering his opponents at range. However, he’s still showing holes in his game defensively. Bruno Silva carries massive power in his strikes with seventeen of his twenty professional victories coming by way of KO. He’s a decent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he doesn’t really have the cardio to exchange in aggressive grappling exchanges. This is a good fight to target for DFS, but also one of the closer fights on the card to call. If Sanchez leans on a wrestling heavy approach he’ll be live for the upset, but I expect he stands a bit more than he should here. Bruno Silva by Round One KO
  • GB: Bruno Silva by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Ludovit Klein -400 (DK $9200, FD $23) vs Nate Landwehr +300 (DK $7000, FD $8)

  • Anthony: This should be an exciting featherweight fight between Ludovit Klein and Nate Landwehr. Klein is an excellent striker and I think he has a lot of upside moving forward in this division. He is just 26 years old but already has 20 professional fights under his belt. His last matchup was a somewhat controversial loss to Mike Trizano. The first two rounds were close but I believe them to pretty clearly belong to Klein. He has the opportunity to bounce back in a big way here against the skidding Landwehr. It is not uncommon for M-1 fighters to struggle in the UFC and that has unfortunately been the case for Landwehr. He is an aggressive fighter who always presses forward but that is simply not enough to win at this high a level. Klein is much more technical on the feet and I see him landing clean shots on Landwehr whenever he decides to attack here. His signature move is the head kick and Landwehr is a fighter who lacks defensive awareness. He was finished by a first round knee in his previous two losses and I see him getting caught by something big again today. Ludovit Klein by Round One KO
  • Nick: Nate Landwehr is a brawler, but he’s fairly well-rounded. He likes to fight on the feet, but he has a solid wrestling base and his overall athleticism allows him to escape tough positions against relatively advanced grapplers. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Julian Erosa. He almost KO’d Erosa early in that spot, but his chin didn’t quite hold up and Erosa found an opening for a knee and a finish. Klein is extremely advanced for a 26-year old. He has decent grappling, but the precision and power behind his strikes is something to behold. He does a good job using feints to court his opponent’s into powerful shots. He’s coming off a controversial decision loss to Mike Trizano, but he’s still well-regarded as a prospect to watch at 145. Prior to his recent loss, Klein was coming off four-straight knockout victories, including a massive KO in his debut over City Kickboxing’s Shane Young. I believe Landwehr is tougher than he showed his last time out, but Klein’s striking is simply on another level. The line is likely too wide and Landwehr is far from a pushover. Still, Klein is the pick here. Ludovit Klein by Round Two KO
  • GB: Ludovit Klein by Round One KO

Manon Fiorot -300 (DK $8900, FD $20) vs Mayra Bueno Silva +235 (DK $7300, FD $9)

  • Anthony: Next we have a women’s flyweight bout between Manon Fiorot and Mayra Bueno Silva. This fight was originally set for UFC 266 but it was rescheduled due to coronavirus protocols. Fiorot has dominated her two UFC fights thus far, securing victories by knockout in both appearances this year. She has excellent striking in general but her traditional boxing is lightning fast and she has enough power to overwhelm most any opponent on the feet. Through her first two fights in the promotion she is averaging 8 significant strikes per minute. We also see her utilize kicks well from a karate stance at range. As with strikers and French fighters in general, defending the takedown will be her only concern here. Although Bueno Silva is a grappling threat she has yet to secure a takedown in the UFC. She often fishes for submissions from guard and I do not expect Fiorot to ever allow this fight to hit the mat. Fiorot is a BJJ brown belt so I trust to escape any compromising positions she may find herself in. She is my most confident pick on this card. I bet her heavy at -200 early this week and will be loading up in my DFS builds. Manon Fiorot by Round Two KO
  • Nick: We have what should be an exciting match-up here between two flyweights that like to stand and swing. Fiorot is primarily a striker. She mixes in kicks well to set up her punches. She can still show power even as she backs away from her opponents and while she’d prefer to stand and trade, her grappling is more than sufficient as a decorated judoka. Bueno Silva is a brawler. She’s decent on the feet, but she also carries sneaky offensive grappling ability as a BJJ blackbelt. Fiorot should have a massive advantage on the feet here, similar to what we saw from her in her UFC debut win against Victoria Leonardo and her recent KO victory over Tabatha Ricci. She has an excellent gas tank as she already has multiple five round wins under her belt. This does represent a step up in competition for Fiorot, but I expect she’ll pass the test. Manon Fiorot by Decision
  • GB: Manon Fiorot by Round Two KO

Jim Miller -250 (DK $8700, FD $18) vs Erick Gonzalez +200 (DK $7500, FD $11)

  • Anthony: The featured bout will be a fight at lightweight between Erick Gonzalez and the veteran Jim Miller. Fans of fighting are fans of Jim Miller. The veteran will take part in his 38th UFC bout today, the most appearances in company history. Not only does Miller have the most fights in UFC history but the most sub attempts as well. He has always had a well-rounded skillset but Miller is at his best when he is taking down and grappling opponents. His last two fights were against tough offensive wrestlers that ended up getting the better of him, but the newcomer Gonzalez is primarily a striker. It is tough to trust a debuting fighter against somebody who has been locked in the octagon so many times already. The wins for Gonzalez in Combate are not the most impressive, but his losses have primarily come against UFC caliber competition. I think Gonzalez has a good shot at winning this fight if he can survive the first round. Miller has been selling out for early wins lately and Gonzalez could very well pick apart the 38-year-old if we see a round two or three. I like the under in this fight more than any one side in particular. Ultimately my pick is Miller to get the win, but I am not comfortable betting him until I see this losing streak snapped. Jim Miller by Round One Submission
  • Nick: Erick Gonzalez will be making his UFC debut here. He’s a powerful striker coming off three consecutive victories, but we really haven’t seen him tested against a high level of competition. Jim Miller is one of the more accomplished veterans on the UFC roster. He’s a decent striker, but he’s found most of his success on the mat. He has excellent BJJ and eighteen of his thirty-two professional wins have come via submission. Miller’s clearest path to victory here is to put Gonzalez on his back and try to score a quick finish. His cardio has depleted over the years and he recently recovered from COVID. He should be able to hang with Gonzalez on the feet, but there’s nothing about Gonzalez’s game that suggests he’ll be able to keep this one standing. Two of Gonzalez’s five professional losses have come via submission. Crazy things happen in MMA, but I expect Miller to outclass Gonzalez considerably. Jim Miller by Round One Submission
  • GB: Jim Miller by Round Two Submission

Carlos Felipe -110 (DK $8000, FD $16) vs Andrei Arlovski -110 (DK $8200, FD $15)

  • Anthony: The co-main event is a heavyweight bout between Carlos Felipe and Andrei Arlovski. I have been betting against Felipe since his UFC debut. His past two victories very much tilted me as he was awarded split decision wins despite getting out struck in both fights. Watching Felipe celebrate like a gangster after being gifted these close decisions has gotten old. Arlovski has mostly won by decision lately himself but against much better competition. I believe the veteran of 53 fights poses a lot of problems for Felipe. Arlovski was beat by a top 15 heavyweight in six of his previous seven losses. He has stood across the octagon from far more proven finishers and will not be intimidated by the 26-year-old here. It will most likely be a fight that takes place on the feet and I imagine Arlovski is the more technical striker of the two. Arlovski is also the bigger fighter with a true heavyweight frame. He won’t be pushed around by Felipe and I see him landing with the higher volume and accuracy. It may end up being another close decision, but Arlovski should do enough to get a win. Andrei Arlovski by Decision
  • Nick: Arlovski is a shell of who he was when he reigned as UFC Heavyweight Champion back in 2005. He’s lost a lot of speed and power over the years, but he still has solid head movement and he generally does a good job circling away from his opponents and counter striking. He’s extended his career mostly leaning on his excellent fight IQ. He does an excellent job staying out of his opponents range and he does a good job finding openings to put damage on the back half of this division. He’s coming off a solid and convincing win over Chase Sherman. Sherman looked good early, but Arlovski did a good job evading big strikes and ultimately took over as the fight wore on. Felipe is a pure boxer who usually does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents. He hasn’t really shown KO power at this level, but he continuously pushes a pace and his cardio is surprisingly solid for a fighter with his wide and stocky frame. Most of Felipe’s wins have come via controversial decision. Against a point fighter like Arlovski I’m a bit confused as to why these odds are par. I don’t love either side for DFS, but I am siding with the veteran. Andrei Arlovski by Decision
  • GB: Carlos Felipe by Decision

Aspen Ladd -130 (DK $8400, FD $21) vs Norma Dumont +110 (DK $7800, FD $17)

  • Anthony: Our main event will be a women’s featherweight matchup between Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont. It is an abysmal headliner, but Ladd is taking this fight on short notice after Holly Holm was forced to withdraw. Ladd had a bout with Macy Chiasson fall out earlier this month after missing the bantamweight limit so this move to 145 pounds makes a lot of sense. She is a finisher who can generate a lot of power but I do not know how well it will translate to this weight class. Dumont is clearly the larger women and more suitable contender at featherweight. I can see Ladd implementing her gameplan well early, grappling Dumont and looking for a finish with strikes from top position. However, I have some concerns regarding her gas tank up weight and durability compared to Dumont. This could really be a fun back and forth fight as Dumont likely looks fresher in the latter three rounds. Ladd had mentioned to media that she had no idea this was a five round main event when she accepted the short notice opportunity. Many fight fans will of switched on the Bellator broadcast by this point but for those still watching I expect Dumont to secure the win. I am expecting her to piece up Ladd here as she starts to fade. Norma Dumont by Round Four KO
  • Nick: Aspen Ladd is taking this fight on short notice as Holly Holm was forced to pull out due to injury. Ladd will be moving up a weight class here after struggling to make weight at 135. She has found most of her success grappling and controlling position against smaller opponents, but she may not have that advantage now that she’s fighting at featherweight. Norma Dumont is coming off an impressive upset win over former title challenger Felicia Spencer. Dumont is an effective striker with solid takedown defense. She does a good job controlling the center of the octagon and has continued to show improvements in her striking. Both of these women land around 5 significant strikes per minute, but Dumont boasts a 67 percent striking defense – while Ladd sits at a mediocre 47%. Both of these girls will put out a lot of volume, but I expect Dumont to take far less damage. Another major key to this match-up is that Dumont has never been taken down in the UFC. Ladd won’t have the same grappling advantage she normally does, so I’m siding with the underdog in this one. Norma Dumont by Round Four KO
  • GB: Norma Dumont by Round Three KO

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice

THE DAILY PUCK DROP – 10/14/2021 – NHL DFS MAIN SLATE

Hi, my name is Sam Duchesneau or @GronkDFS on Twitter. We have a solid 9 game slate tonight with a good mix of Cash and GPP matchups. Opening night was a success for me and for the readers of the article. Also, DPA members even managed to get takedowns or <1% finishes! Without further ado, let’s settle in for another awesome article.

Nov 29, 2018; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) during the first period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

TB1 Cash Stack: Palat – Point – Kucherov

Fanduel: $22,800 (41% of salary) / DraftKings: $19,900 (40% of salary)

TB1 is extremely expensive but they are facing Detroit and they are known to be a disaster defensively. They have improved at the goaltender position during the offseason but defensively, it is not pretty. Tampa has an excellent 3.3 Vegas total which is the 3rd highest on the slate. In my opinion, it should be the highest one tonight. Tampa Bay looked hungover from their Stanley Cup parade which happened 4 months ago! They did not look great in their debut. Tonight, they have a premium matchup and this line has elite upside nights in and nights out. TB1 has an excellent 30SCF, 10HDCF, 53CF%, and a 2.49xGF. They will be facing DET3 for around 60% of the game. They own a mediocre 31 SCA, 11HDCA, and a 3.1xGA.

Other viable stacks: TOR1 (Ritchie, Tavares, and Marner); FLA1 (Verhaeghe, Barkov, and Reinhart); FLA2 (Huberdeau, Bennett, and Tippett)

MTL1 GPP Stack: Toffoli – Suzuki – Caufield

Fanduel: $18,000 (33% of salary) / DraftKings: $19,600 (39% of salary)

Montreal will be playing their 2nd game in as many nights. While that might be a factor in fading them (for some people), I do not use those conditions. I will be eyeing MTL1 all season because I love the upside this line projects. All 3 guys here are extremely offensive-oriented players and that generally means they will be a successful line offensively. Tonight, they are facing a weak Buffalo team that may struggle to score 2 goals a night and win 20 games this season. This offseason, they got worse offensively and defensively. MTL1 has well-above offensive numbers with 30 SCF, 10HDCF, 53CF%, and 2.35xGF. They will match against BUF2 for 60% of the game. They have awful numbers with 25 SCA, 12 HDCA, and 2.62xGA. I have big hopes from MTL1 tonight!

Other viable stacks: CBJ1 (Laine, Texier, and Voracek); VGK1 (Pacioretty, Stephenson, and Stone); SEA1 (Schwartz, McCann, and Eberle)

Favorite plays

Centers

Aleksander Barkov | $7600 (FD) | $7400 (DK)

Barkov is an excellent play nightly due to his reasonable price, shot bonus upside, and time on ice. He plays on FLA1, PP1, and on the penalty kill. Florida has a huge total at 3.7 implied total. His opponent the Pittsburgh Penguins will be without Crosby and Malkin and they weren’t good defensively last season. While they did well against an elite Tampa offense on game 1, I do believe they will be a bottom 10 to 15 team in goals against this season. Barkov is a lock tonight for me!

John Tavares | $7200 (FD) | $7600 (DK)

Toronto has also a solid 3.7 goals implied total tonight and I agree with the total. The Leafs are missing Auston Matthews and while this sucks, it means John Tavares gets to play on TOR1 and PP1. The Leafs had a disappointing opening night yesterday but a matchup against Ottawa should help them forget about it. I loved targeting Ottawa last season and they haven’t done anything crucial defensively to help themselves. They will be a bottom 5 team in goals against this year too.

Honorable Mentions: Suzuki (Like him a lot tonight), Point (Like him a lot tonight), Seguin, Bennett, Stephenson, Dvorak, Cirelli, Roslovic, Grandlund, McCann, Texier, and Wenberg

Wingers

Nikita Kucherov | $8800 (FD) | $8400 (DK)

I’ve mentioned my love for TB1 tonight and Kucherov should be the main target for this line. He is an outstanding player and I always prioritize him over his linemates. He will also be more owned than Point or Palat (For my cash players)

Carter Verhaeghe | $4900 (FD) | $6400 (DK)

Verhaeghe was a pleasant surprise last season and he is electric offensively. His discount price on FD makes him a core value play today for me. While he is a great play on both sites, I would prioritize him on FD only and play Schwartz ($3200 on DK, too cheap) or pivot to Stamkos, Caufield, or Laine on DK.

Honorable Mentions: Pacioretty, Huberdeau, Stamkos (too cheap DK), Marner, Stone, Reinhart, Nylander, Toffoli, Palat (DK more), Caufield, Bjorkstrand, Laine, Eberle, Killorn, Schwartz (DK more), Anderson, Voracek, Ritchie, Bunting, Kotkaniemi, Duchene, and Drouin

Defenseman

Jeff Petry | $5100 (FD) | $5600 (DK)

Petry is too cheap here compared to his price last season. He was a top 5 defenseman last season with awesome upside and a solid shot/blocks floor.

Ryan Suter | $4300 (FD) | $4200 (DK)

It may feel like a punt defenseman here but the Rangers were extremely undisciplined yesterday and their PK looked awful. Suter is on the 1st defensive pair and PP1 with Dallas superstars. He should be able to exceed value tonight.

Honorable Mentions: Hedman, Ekblad, Fox, Rielly, Josi, Chabot, Chychrun (FD more), Giordano, Martinez, DeAngelo (GPP more), Dobson, and Pulock

Goaltenders

Elvis Merzlikins | $7300 (FD) | $7800 (DK)

*Risky* I have to admit that I love the price of Merzlikins here and I do believe that CBJ wins this game. I love the upside here and Elvis’s opponent looks extremely weak on paper offensively and defensively.

Andrei Vasilevskiy | $8900 (FD) | $8400 (DK)

If you have the salary for Vasy, plug him in but I feel like he is far too pricey and Detroit does not shoot a ton. He doesn’t have the best upside but If you want the safe win, he is your guy!

Honorable Mentions: Mrazek, Lehner, Saros, and Montembault

Recap

Finally, we’ve got ourselves a great slate tonight for all formats. I am in love with TB1, MTL1, TOR1, and FLA1. I have some interest in GPP stacks as well like TOR2, FLA2, TB2, MTL2, CBJ1, CBJ2, and SEA1. Best of luck everyone!

Thank you very much for taking the time to catch up on your NHL DFS with Daily Play Action. Premium members, please take note that a Slack Q+A follow-up for the NHL Main Slate will take place at 6:00 PM until lock. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @DailyPlayAction and my personal Twitter @GronkDFS where you can find the most updated info and analysis on all of the league’s DFS developments.

THE DAILY PUCK DROP – 10/12/2021 – NHL DFS MAIN SLATE

EDMONTON, ALBERTA - SEPTEMBER 28: Steven Stamkos #91 of the Tampa Bay Lightning hoists the Stanley Cup overhead in the locker room after the Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Dallas Stars 2-0 in Game Six of the NHL Stanley Cup Final to win the best of seven game series 4-2 at Rogers Place on September 28, 2020 in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images)

My name is Sam Duchesneau (also known as @GronkDFS on Twitter), NHL is finally back in full action and it’s my pleasure to be back for my 2nd season as the NHL content provider for Daily Play Action (DPA). On this opening night, we sadly have ourselves a tiny slate with only 2 games. Despite the small slate, I will showcase my favorite stacks and favorite plays and will provide much-needed tips and tricks on how to play DFS NHL if you’re a cash player and/or a GPP player. With that being said, buckle up, and let’s make a lot of money this 2021-2022 NHL season!!!

VGK1 Cash Stack: Stone – Stephenson – Pacioretty

Fanduel: $17,900 (33% of salary) / DraftKings: $19,000 (38% of salary)

Vegas1 was one of my favorite lines last season because they generate a ton of scoring chances (34SCF, 14HDCF, 56CF%, and 3.17xGF) and when selecting my stacks, I base my lineups on matchups, salary, and chances generated. VGK1 have awesome chemistry together. They will be facing the Seattle Kraken and while I know their roster, this will be the Kraken’s 1st ever NHL game which means there are a lot of questions to be answered here. Seattle will be missing a few key pieces due to Covid-19 protocols and their defense on paper seems extremely weak. On paper, Vegas has the best matchup of the slate, there is no doubt that VGK1 will be the chalk stack of the slate. Pacioretty and Stone will be on PP1 together while Stephenson is on neither PP but he is dirt cheap on both sites.

Other viable stacks: TB1 (Palat, Point, and Kucherov), VGK2 (Marchessault, Karlsson, and Smith)

TB2 GPP Stack: Killorn – Cirelli – Stamkos

Fanduel: $12,500 (23% of salary) / DraftKings: $12,800 (26% of salary)

I was about to circle PIT1 as my preferred GPP stack due to the value presented as a result of Crosby and Malkin’s injuries but I’ve decided to go with TB2. Tampa Bay has been an elite offense for a few years now, and there is no doubt that their 1st line will gather more ownership and while they’re a good play, TB2 cannot go unnoticed. TB2 is a solid line that generates chances and they have broken a few slates last season. Their cheap price makes them a solid low risk/high reward and helps us pay for a premium defenseman and VGK1. Pittsburgh was not great defensively last season and looking at their line combos, PIT2 won’t be great defensively all year long. TB2 had solid numbers last season with 29SCF, 10HDCF, 54CF%, and a 2.33xGF.

Other viable stacks: PIT1 (Heinen, Carter, and Rust); TB3 (Perry, Colton, and Stamkos); SEA1 (Schwartz, McCann, and Eberle)

Favorite plays

Centers

Brayden Point | $7600 (FD) | $7300 (DK)

Nearly a point per game player last season and now reunited with his elite partner Nikita Kucherov, he is hands down the best option at the center position tomorrow. He will be facing a weak Penguins lineup that will be without Crosby and Malkin which means there is no player that can reasonably get in his way tonight.

Jeff Carter | $4900 (FD) | $6100 (DK)

Carter is too cheap on FD but too expensive on DK. With the injuries of Crosby, and Malkin he will be playing on PP1 and PIT1. I see him getting over 19-20 minutes of ice time which is excellent for his price. His matchup is not easy as Tampa Bay is a great defensive team, but he is a top value option tonight with the opportunities he will receive.

Honorable Mentions: Stephenson, Karlsson, Cirelli, McCann, and Patrick

Wingers

Nikita Kucherov | $8600 (FD) | $8000 (DK)

Just like Brayden Point, he is the top winger on the slate. His point-per-game ability and his enormous upside make him a top player on most slates. On this 2 gamer, I don’t see a single reason to fade him. He plays with Point on TB1 and PP1. If Tampa goes crazy, he will most likely finish with the top score of the entire slate. Fade at your own risk!

Max Pacioretty | $7300 (FD) | $7100 (DK)

Pacioretty is one of my favorite players to roster on DK because of his shot upside. He averages 3.59 shots per game which is top 5 in the NHL and he is always in play to hit the shot bonus and a multi goals night. He is the elite scorer in this Vegas offense.

Honorable Mentions: Stamkos, Stone, Rust, Palat, Marchessault, Eberle, Killorn, Schwartz, Smith, Zucker, Dadonov, and Joseph

Defenseman

Victor Hedman | $6700 (FD) | $6300 (DK)

If you have the salary for Victor Hedman tonight, he is the must-play defenseman. There’s a fair amount of value defenseman but he is a no-doubter if you can get to him. He plays big minutes on a nightly basis and always seems to find the scoresheet even if Tampa has a tough night.

Mark Giordano | $4600 (FD) | $5600 (DK)

Gio was a disappointment last season with Calgary after numerous great seasons. His floor however, is among the best out of all defenseman in the NHL (blocked shots and shot volume). The main reason that I am rostering him tonight is simply that Vegas takes a lot of penalties and he is playing on PP1. Looking at Seattle’s defensive core, it is obvious that Gio will log around 26+ minutes every single game and at $4600 that’s a bargain. *VGK’s Alec Martinez is a great pivot to him. If you fade the stud defenseman, lock him in to get different*

Honorable Mentions: Theodore (If playing), Sergachev (Value), Dunn, and Pietrangelo

Goaltenders

Robin Lehner | $8400 (FD) | $8200 (DK)

I’m leaning towards Lehner tonight simply because I believe Seattle is weaker offensively and defensively on paper than Pittsburgh. When it comes to whoever has more saves between him and Vasilevskiy, it is very tough to predict, hence why I’ll take the goalie with the safest chance for the win bonus and the least amount of goals potentially allowed.

Andrei Vasilevskiy | $8700 (FD) | $8000 (DK)

As mentioned above, I’m more scared of this Penguins offense than Seattle’s offense. Both goalies are top plays in my opinion. If you’re looking for saves on shot volume, take a flier on Phillip Grubauer at just 7k.

Honorable Mentions: None

Recap

In conclusion, this is a very small slate. I will target heavily TB1 and VGK1 in all formats followed by VGK2, and TB2. As for my contrarian stacks or my value stacks, SEA1 and PIT1 project well but they’re a high risk/high reward stack.

DFS Strategy

Cash

This segment is a one-time deal to prepare you guys for this upcoming NHL season. Bring a pencil and a notepad and listen carefully! For my 5050/2x players (A.K.A Cash Game players), I love the 2-2-2 strategy in cash games. By 2-2-2 I mean play 2 players of 3 different teams. Often in bigger slates, we see a lot of quality matchups and I’ve found that having 2 forwards on the same line and PP for 3 different high vegas totals teams has been successful since day 1 of my DFS career. In cash contests, it is often easy, you just need to beat 50% of the field.

The 2-2-2 strategy tends to have the right edge to beat the field far more often than you would think. In cash, I will always target the most obvious plays with a slight edge of “GPP” type of players. For example, there is no denying that tonight on paper, Tampa and Vegas should win and score probably 3-4 goals. It’s always the elite teams and elite lines against the mediocre teams.

GPP

In GPP, it is slightly different. In the DFS and gambling world, despite being a huge favorite, there’s always some unexpected, and while TB and VGK are high favorites it wouldn’t be unlikely to see an underdog win or even break the slate and it happens more often than we might imagine. Personally, on smaller slates, I tend to go contrarian in GPPs or I target the obvious matchups with less obvious and owned lines like VGK2 and TB2.

My fav strategy in GPPs is the 3-3-1-1 strategy or the 4-4 strategy. The 3-3-1-1 means a full line stack of 2 different teams alongside a one-off defenseman from 2 different teams. For example, it could be TB1 full line stack with VGK2 full line stack with Giordano 1 off and Letang 1 off. The 4-4 stack is 2 full lines stacks from 2 different teams with the correlated defenseman. Tonight, it could be TB1 with VGK2 with one offs of on defense with d-men like Hedman or Pietrangelo/Martinez.

Those 2 strategies have helped me win a couple of takedowns over the years. The main goal in GPPs is focused on being different with your correlation and matchups. On a smaller slate, you want to mix it up. On a normal/bigger slate, I aim to find lower-owned stacks in good matchups. For example on a 12 gamer, there’s always 2-4 stacks that are high owned in cash and GPPs but there’s also 3-4 teams that fall under the radar and I always target those. The right play on paper isn’t necessarily the right one.

With that being said, I will be available all season long to help on the building part. Do not be afraid to target 2nd or 3rd lines on teams that should dominate. Lastly, my rule #1 in any format is to target line combinations and PP correlations. If players play together on 5v5 and on the powerplay, they are always available to connect for a goal/assist together to help you accumulate a higher score!!

Thank you very much for taking the time to catch up on your NHL DFS with Daily Play Action. Premium members, please take note that a Slack Q+A follow-up for the NHL Main Slate will take place at 6:00 PM until lock. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @DailyPlayAction and my personal Twitter @GronkDFS where you can find the most updated info and analysis on all of the league’s DFS developments.

MNF Showdown | IND at BAL | Picks and Matchup Preview | NFL DFS

Good morning Playmaker Fam! @AlexKrallDFS here to preview matchups and my favorite players to target ahead of an AFC Showdown on DraftKings and FanDuel between the visiting Indianapolis Colts and the host Baltimore Ravens. For this article, I’m going to be applying a data driven approach to help highlight the best matchups, odds, and stats to consider when making your tournament lineups tonight. Once we’ve concluded with detailing some important data, you’ll also find my favorite Captain, Contrarian Captains, and FLEX plays listed below.

For our custom projections on tonight’s MNF Showdown slate, you can opt into a FREE 2 Week Trial of our Playmaker Gold or Playmaker Premium Package! Playmaker Gold will get you access to our Slack Chat, Cheat Sheets, Core Plays, Projections and Player Grades, while Playmaker Platinum will get you all of those features as well as access to DPA’s NFL and NBA DFS Optimizer – The Playmaker Station. We highly recommend opting into either of these packages to get the most out of your DPA subscription while building lineups with our custom handmade player projections as we believe this will put you in the best position to win week to week. You can save 25% on either package following your two week trial with Promo Code: SAVE10.

Now that that’s over with, let’s talk some Monday Night Football!

Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)

Colts Team Total: 19.25

Ravens Team Total: 26.75

Line: Baltimore (-7.5) | O/U: 46

Baltimore Ravens

Defensive Matchups

BAL ranks 14th against the Pass, 11th in DvP vs QBs, and 14th in FPPG allowed to QBs (17.38 FPPG allowed)

BAL ranks 10th against the Run, 26th in DvP vs RBs, and 20th in FPPG allowed to RBs (26.03 FPPG allowed)

BAL ranks 6th in DvP vs WRs, and 8th against WRs (30.8 FPPG allowed)

BAL ranks 32nd in DvP vs TEs, and 31st in FPPG allowed to TEs (20.68 FPPG allowed)

Indianapolis’ Best Positions to Target by Matchup: RB, TE

Best Odds to Score

Lamar Jackson (+100), Latavius Murray (+120), Marquise Brown (+120), Mark Andrews (+130), Sammy Watkins (+240),

Best WR Matchup: Marquise Brown vs Isaiah Rodgers (PFF Grade: 49.7)

Notable Offensive Stats

  • Lamar Jackson has scored no less than 20 DKP in any game (while averaging 25 DKP/game), while averaging 70 rushing yards/game
  • Latavius Murray has gained a stronghold on the BAL backfield, playing 62% of the snaps last week against Denver. Murray had no role in the passing game, but did rush the ball 18 times for 59 yards in Week 4.
  • Marquise Brown ranks 12th in Air Yards/Game (111.8) while Sammy Watkins ranks 24th (99.3)
  • Marquise Brown has scored 19+ DKP in 3 of 4 outings this year, has 3 receiving TDs, averaging 7 targets/game
  • Mark Andrews ranks 3rd amongst TEs with 64.8 Air Yards per game, and 8th in targets (25) and receptions (18)

CAPTAIN

Lamar Jackson – The obvious best play on the slate. Jackson brings uncapped upside to the table against a team that has had trouble limiting opposing QB fantasy output.

Marquise Brown – Brown has the best WR/CB matchup for the Ravens and has regularly exhibited big play ability. The Colts are good against RBs and TEs but struggle against QBs and WRs.

CONTRARIAN CAPTAINS

Mark Andrews – Andrews is my favorite “cheap” captain play as we’ve seen him display upside in the past as a dominant red zone receiving threat.

Sammy Watkins – While ranking top 25 in air yards this season, Watkins has posted 7+ targets in every game this season. He is due for a long TD and it could come here against IND’s vulnerable secondary.

FLEX

Ravens DST – After giving up 62 points through their first two games, the Baltimore defense has rebounded only giving up 7 and 17 points over their last two weeks while generating 7 total sacks over that time span. Not only that, but the Colts will be without two of their best OL as All-Pro Guard Quenton Nelson and RT Braden Smith are set to miss this game, freeing up more opportunities for the Ravens to blitz shaky immobile QB Carson Wentz. The Ravens DST is a sneaky play here tonight, expected to only be owned around 15% of the time in the FLEX.

Latavius Murray – Murray saw almost 20 carries last week, and looks to be a solid FLEX piece to target as the Ravens are very much a run-first team. Makes a lot of sense to pair Murray with Jackson and the Ravens DST if you decide to pull the trigger in this spot. The Colts have only surrendered one rushing TD to opposing running backs this season.

Justin Tucker – Tucker is the highest scoring kicker in fantasy this season, and probably the most consistent option. 4k is a bargain, and he is easily the best value play in <4k range.

Le’Veon Bell – I hate having to write up Bell, but he did play 27% of the snaps last week in his first game as a Raven and is very cheap at $1.8k. Would probably prefer him if the Colts were favored as he could rack up some points in negative game script, but he still makes for an intriguing cheap value play.

Rashod Bateman – Only $200 for the Ravens 2021 1st round pick who looks to be in line to make his Pro debut tonight.

Indianapolis Colts

Defensive Matchups

IND ranks 26th against the Pass, 20th in DvP vs QBs, and 19th in FPPG allowed to QBs (20.13 FPPG allowed)

IND ranks 5th against the Run, 8th in DvP vs RBs, and 6th in FPPG allowed to RBs (18.20 FPPG allowed)

IND ranks 21st in DvP vs WRs, and 19th in FPPG allowed to WRs (38.68 FPPG allowed)

IND ranks 15th in DvP vs TEs, and 16th in FPPG allowed to TEs (11.63 FPPG allowed)

Baltimore’s Best Positions to Target by Matchup: QB, WR

Best WR Matchup: Zach Pascal / Michael Pittman Jr. vs Tavon Young (PFF Grade: 50.2)

Best Odds to Score

Jonathan Taylor (+120), Michael Pittman Jr, (+210), Nyheim Hines (+260), Zach Pascal (+300)

Notable Offensive Stats

  • Carson Wentz has yet to exceed 19 DKP in any game this season, currently averaging 15.9 DK PPG in a run first offense
  • Jonathan Taylor has played no more than 55% of the snaps in any game this season, and Nyheim Hines is the natural pivot in negative game script. Taylor has not exceeded 19 touches since Week 1. Hines has seen 6+ targets in two of his last 3 games.
  • Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal are playing 80% of the snaps week to week.
  • Michael Pittman ranks 15th in total targets (36), 13th in Target Share (26.5%), and 26th in Air Yards/Game (96 YPG)
  • Zach Pascal leads the NFL in Red Zone Targets T-Cooper Kupp for (9), and ranks 5th in RZ Target Share % at (40.9%)
  • Mo-Alie Cox played a season high 69% of the snaps in Week 4 against Miami, catching 2 TDs in that game

CAPTAIN

Jonathan Taylor – Likely brings the best upside to the table for a run first Colts team. Eclipsed 100 rushing yards and scored a TD last week against Miami. Baltimore brings a similar matchup on the ground as they surrendered 6.5 yards per carry to Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams last week after giving up TDs to both Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift in Week 3, and 2 TDs to Josh Jacobs in Week 1. I bet Taylor scores again tonight.

Michael Pittman Jr. – Pittman has been the most targeted receiver in the Colts offense this year, and the 2nd year stud is poised to be very active again if the Colts find themselves in negative game script. Pittman has been targeted 5 times inside the 10 yard line this year and has yet to score, so positive regression could be in the cards for him soon.

CONTRARIAN CAPTAINS

Zach Pascal – The veteran receiver’s red zone role really surprised me as I found out he ranks #1 in the NFL in RZ targets. That information is valuable on 1 game slates as he is likely to see looks inside the 20 and is the cheapest option in the Colts offense that will see 80% or more of their snaps.

Nyheim Hines – This game script sets up perfectly for a guy like Hines given that the Colts will likely be in negative game script. If deploying Lamar Captain lines he also makes a lot of sense as a FLEX run back option. The Ravens are surrendering the 5th most receiving yards and the 7th most receptions to opposing RBs.

FLEX

Rodrigo Blankenship – Averaging 11 DKP over each of his last 3 starts which isn’t bad for $3.6k. Given that the Colts often sputter and halt drives, Blankenship could see more work than usual tonight.

Colts DST – The Colts defense presents a very interesting GPP option as they are averaging 2 turnovers and 2 sacks per game. Given that they faceoff against a mobile QB, there will be more opportunities for sacks than usual against BAL. If captaining Jonathan Taylor, I like the Colts as a stacking partner in the FLEX as they are very cheap and averaging 7.5 DKP per game. Likely to be vastly under owned.

Mo-Alie Cox – I’m anticipating ownership to be off of him as his price is up to 5k after scoring twice on just 5 targets last week. Having said that, the Ravens have been terrible at guarding the TE position this year, setting up well for guys like Cox and Doyle here on MNF.

Carson Wentz – Pretty expensive for a mediocre QB in my opinion. We haven’t seen any ceiling out of Wentz in awhile, so I’m not crazy about playing him at increased ownership unless pairing with someone like Pittman or Pascal at CPT.

Honorable Mentions: Jack Doyle, Parris Campbell

Thank you for joining us for our Matchup Preview for tonight’s Monday Night Football game! For any additional questions, hop into our Slack server and dial in any of your roster/lineup questions as lock approaches. For further lineup strategy and a FREE video breakdown of tonight’s matchup, make sure you catch Zach’s stream tonight at 7PM EST on the DPA YouTube Channel. Lastly, if you haven’t yet done so already, also please make sure to follow our twitter accounts at @dailyplayaction and @AlexKrallDFS to continue supporting your friends at DPA. See you at the top of the leaderboards!

The Checkered Flag – Bank of America Roval 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway

Welcome back Playmakers! Another week in the books. I hope you jumped onboard the Bubba Wallace prediction last week. That will forever be one of the best calls of my career. This week we head back to Charlotte. But this week on the track’s still relatively new Roval road course. The design highlights both the ability to get your car to turn and handle corners well, but also still need to be able to carry a lot of speed for the track’s straightaway section. In its short history The Roval has had some very exciting finishes, I’m sure we get more of the same this time around. Place differential has a little more value than dominator this week due to it being a road course and they have less laps than a more traditional track. Here’s a look at the drivers I feel have the best chance to be successful here:

Dominators 

Chase Elliott | 8th | 10,700DK | 14,500FD |

Chase comes into this race as the odds on favorite to win. He’s done really well here in the past. Notching 2 wins here already, I would be highly surprised if he doesn’t get the lead at some point and also have 20+ fast laps. This is a great piece to build around for any type of game. He should have very high ownership on both sites. 

Denny Hamlin | 1st | 9500DK | 13,000FD |

Denny should lead the first portion of the race. He’s a good road course driver. I don’t know how long he will hold the lead. But the upside is there for him to pay off his salary and finish inside the top10. 

Ryan Blaney | 6th | 9100DK | 8000FD |

Blaney has a win here. It was a bit fluky with 1st and 2nd wrecking each other on the last turn. He was in the position to capitalize, this is another spot where he should stay competitive all day. I don’t know if he will lead laps, but it’s worth a shot. I think this is actually an interesting spot because of pricing. Especially on FD. Blaney is a gpp option to lead laps or “dominate” a portion of this race. But his pricing is low enough that he actually has some cash game appeal. Unless he were to have some sort of crash damage or wreck out of the race, Blaney should contend for a top10 here. That wouldn’t be a bad score for the pricing at all. Even if he weren’t to lead laps. He is a great play on FD because of this, 8000 is just too cheap. Very solid on DK as well. 

Kyle Larson | 10th | 10,300DK | 14,000FD | 

Larson is always an option. He could win today. I’m leaning Chase over Larson but there’s not much difference in these two. I don’t want to completely fade Larson, I will have some combos of him and AJ Allmendinger. He’s just too good not to have some exposure to. 

Also Consider 

Martin Truex Jr | 10,100DK | 11,500FD |

Place Differential 

AJ Allmendinger | 33rd | 11,200DK | 12,000FD | 

AJ won the xfin race here yesterday. He’s won here 3 times actually. He should work his way up into the top10. There is a little risk that AJ as some sort of issue and doesn’t pay off his hefty price tag. But AJ is a road course ace. There’s not many drivers in the series who can match his skill level. He’s been damn good here too, so I like this play. I’m not opposed to fading him in some lines too. He should have pretty high ownership. 

Kurt Busch | 13th | 8700DK | 10,500FD | 

Kurt might not have the highest ceiling today. But this is a good spot. He’s shown to be damn good here and I really can’t see him finishing any lower than his starting spot. It would take him wrecking out I think. I don’t think nearly anyone uses him and for that reason I really like him as a gpp play. I also think he would be a nice piece for cash games cause you can be pretty confident he will do his job for you. He probably gets overlooked in cash games too. This is a great spot to get him low owned. 

Ross Chastain | 27th | 9300DK | 9500 FD | 

This feels a bit too expensive for Chastain. But he’s still worthy of consideration. Decent upside here. Should finish in the top20 at minimum. Top15 or so probably pats off his price tag. Not a priority because of price but a very solid option here. 

Matt DiBennedetto | 30th | 7900DK | 8500FD| 

Great spot here for Matty. He should be a top20 car. You aren’t paying too much for a decent ceiling play. He should be very popular today. For good reason. He would have to have a disaster of a race to not at least hit his avg floor here. 

Tyler Reddick | 29th | 7800DK | 9000FD | 

I love Reddick this week. He has a 2nd place finish here in xfin and a top10 here in cup. He is in a great spot to pay off his tag. I will have a lot of exposure here. He should be able to crack the top15-20 with a higher ceiling than that. 

Chase Briscoe | 22nd | 7600DK | 9200FD |

I don’t think many know how good Briscoe is on road courses. He’s shown plenty of ability to do well in his career. His team is trending the wrong direction almost all season, but this sets up to be a decent spot to take a chance on him. I think he’s really only a gpp play. Probably a little overpriced on FD too. But definitely a option that most won’t consider. Low ownerships get a little boost when you know you are going to have Chase Elliot, Larson, or Allmendinger on your line. The guys who should be the highest owned. 

Justin Haley | 38th | 7400DK | 4000FD |

This is very expensive on DK for a really terrible car. Haley is a solid driver and he’s shown some skills on road courses. The car is just plain awful though. I do think he can maybe finish in the top30. But it’s risky and you can get a much safer floor out of MattyD or Reddick for just a couple hundred more. So this is really a Gpp only play for me. Unless he fits your line perfectly I wouldn’t go out of my way to force him into lines. His cheap price on FD makes him more appealing over there so that you can possibly stack 3 of the largest salaries together. 

Ryan Preece | 31st | 6000DK | 5500FD | 

Preece is normally pretty disappointing. I don’t expect much here but he’s cheap enough to work into your line as your last driver on DK. You would be happy with anything inside the top23-25 or so. I’m not a huge fan but if you need a pure punt for gpp he’s worth a small percentage of ownership. 

Cole Custer | 23rd | 5700DK | 7100FD | 

This pricing on DK is very cheap. I wouldn’t have any interest otherwise, but this is a bit disrespectful. Custer is a top25 car almost every week. This track doesn’t setup as a great spot for him. But for 5700 I’m willing to give him a shot in a line or two because I know it’ll get me up to the combo of Chase Elliot and Allmendinger that I want or Larson and Allmendinger, etc. Be careful to not overexpose yourself if you do use him. His ceiling is not great in this spot. 

Scott Heckert | 35th | 5900DK | 2500FD |

I don’t ever remember a 2500 price tag on FD. Let alone using him in a write up. Heckert does have a ton of road course experience though. He actually finished inside the top10 here for the 2019 xfin race. That car was not good, like today, he may have enough skill to get a top30 here though. I doubt anyone uses him because they probably have never heard of him. I’m not a huge fan or deep punts like this, but I will give him a go because there could be a few cars getting knocked out of this race. You would take 30th place. Use cautiously. 

Also Consider 

Aric Almirola | 21st | 7300DK | 6500FD |

Corey Lajoie | 26th | 5500DK | 6300FD |

Alex Bowman | 12th | 8900DK | 9800FD |

NFL Playbook Cheat Sheet – Week 5 – DFS Football

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UFC Vegas 39: Dern vs Rodriguez – 10.9.2021 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 39: Dern vs Rodriguez. This week we have a rather short slate of fights but some good opportunities to make money nonetheless. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values control time and reversals. This new year, DraftKings has also added a quick win bonus for victories in the first minute as well as scoring for non-significant strikes. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value. Optimal GPP builds very rarely stack the same fight but it can be a viable strategy in cash games.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses if you want to bet on any of these picks.

Lastly, if you are in search of even more combat sports content be sure to visit RingwormMMA.com! This site is dedicated to providing MMA, boxing and gambling content to fight fans around the world.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 221-156-4 (Last Year 223-145-6)
  • Nick: 225-152-4 (Last Year 235-133-6)
  • GB: 212-165-4 (Last Year 216-152-6)

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 9:30 AM EST 10-9-2021

Preliminary Card- Starts 2:00pm EST

Steve Garcia -350 (DK $9100, FD $21) vs Charlie Ontiveros +265 (DK $7100, FD $9)

  • Anthony: The card opens with a lightweight bout between Steve Garcia and Charlie Ontiveros. This is an incredibly low-level fight and there is no reason to have any expectations for it. There is no reason to bet on Ontiveros here who makes the strenuous cut to 155 pounds. He is just 11-7 as a professional and we have seen him finished in every loss. Garcia is better than Ontiveros striking and certainly has the power to knock him out. Grappling likely won’t be a factor as neither are very good at it. Ontiveros may be able to control Garcia as the larger and stronger man but I doubt his chin holds long enough to do so. Steve Garcia by Round One KO
  • Nick: This is a low-level matchup at lightweight no matter how you slice it. Both of these guys got their chances in the UFC as they agreed to short notice fights, but it’s tough to say confidently that either really has enough skill to stick at this level. Ontiveros has several wins on the regional scene, but they all seemingly came against terrible competition. He was crushed in his debut via slam to Kevin Holland. He looked totally out of place in that spot and ultimately left on a stretcher. Garcia is coming off an ugly decision loss to Luis Pena. He clearly lost in that spot, but he showed decent durability and submission defense and was a bit more competitive than expected as Garcia came in as a +200 underdog. He’s a decent striker with surprising power for his frame. He has shown solid durability on the regional scene and that’s very likely going to be the key in this spot. Ontiveros is going to have a reach advantage here and he does seem to have a decent kicking game. However, he has been KO’d in all seven of his professional losses. The line has gotten a bit out of hand as Garcia isn’t all that impressive, but he’s the rightful favorite here. I expect he finds Ontiveros’ chin before it’s all said and done. Steve Garcia by Round Two KO
  • GB: Steve Garcia by Round Two KO

Lupita Godinez -325 (DK $8600, FD $18) vs Silvana Gomez Juarez +250 (DK $7600, FD $11)

  • Anthony: Next is a women’s strawweight fight between Lupita Godinez and Silvana Gomez Juarez. This fight came together on short notice as Godinez’s original opponent Sam Hughes was forced to withdraw early this week. Godinez is a heavy favorite against this short notice replacement, but it is certainly not any easier a fight. The level of competition has not been great but Gomez Juarez is a solid fighter. She was preparing for a fight this Tuesday on Dana White’s Contender Series so I expect we see her in peak physical shape. Godinez has given me no reason to fade her though and she ultimately is the superior fighter no matter where this takes place. I would not recommend a bet on either side. Lupita Godinez by Decision
  • Nick: Sam Hughes was forced to pull out of her match-up with Lupita Godinez, so Silvana Gomez Juarez is now filling in as the short notice replacement. While it’s true she accepted this fight last minute, Juarez had been in camp training for another fight and should be well-prepared. Godinez is primarily a striker. She does a good job keeping pressure on her opponents and her technical ability is impressive for someone in only their second UFC matchup. Gomez Juarez’s only professional losses have come against women that are now on the UFC roster. As impressive as this could be perceived, she really doesn’t have any quality wins to her name. This should be a close fight and I expect Juarez to have her moments, but this feels like Godinez’s fight to lose. She’s the more technical striker and her grappling ability is likely an advantage here as well. Juarez is tough and decent pretty much everywhere, but this feels like a massive step up in competition. Lupita Godinez by Decision
  • GB: Lupita Godinez by Decision

Damon Jackson -210 (DK $8400, FD $16) vs Charles Rosa +170 (DK $7800, FD $14)

  • Anthony: Two grapplers will do battle here as featherweight Damon Jackson and Charles Rosa fight next. These are two UFC veterans who have shown varying degrees of success in the octagon. A lot of their defeats chalk up to high level opponent and I think this is a fair piece of matchmaking today. Rosa is a more new age martial artist who mixes the striking and grappling well. He is excellent in scrambles but is more concerned with control in top position than damage or submissions. Conversely, Jackson is a potent finisher with fifteen of his eighteen career victories coming inside of the distance. This is likely a back and forth, scrambling heavy performance and I favor Jackson to come out on the right side of most exchanges. In my eyes he is the more polished grappler and the odds indicate he likely gets the job done. I think he is an excellent DFS play given the upside at his price tag. Damon Jackson by Round Three Submission
  • Nick: We have a potentially fun fight here between two well-rounded but lower-level featherweights. Damon Jackson finds most of his success on the ground, with seven of his last eight wins coming via submission. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Ilia Topuiria where he was decimated on the feet, but it’s tough to get too down on him for that loss as Topuria is widely regarded a future title contender. Charles Rosa is a BJJ blackbelt, but he struggles to regain position from off his back. He finds most of his success striking at range, but he relies more on volume than power. On the feet, Rosa should have a slight advantage here. However, he also has a shaky 37 percent takedown defense. Most of his recent losses have come against grapplers and I expect that could spell trouble for him here against a cerebral grappler like Jackson. This is a low-level matchup so I don’t want to overinvest, but Jackson feels like the rightful favorite. Damon Jackson by Decision
  • GB: Charles Rosa by Decision

Alexander Romanov -750 (DK $9200, FD $23) vs Jared Vanderaa +475 (DK $7000, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Here we have a heavyweight tilt between Alexander Romanov and Jared Vanderaa. The undefeated Romanov is a serious contender, but as anticipated we saw him have his most difficult fight yet in his last bout against Juan Espino. Romanov was finally met with a foe who could test his grappling acumen and that is exactly what we saw. If it were not for a low blow that gave Romanov a way out, Espino was on his way to a late finish or dominant third round. Vanderaa has exceptional cardio and will be a live dog here too if he can survive Romanov’s early attack, but that is a big if. I do not think he has the takedown defense or grappling to make it out of two rounds with Romanov but if he does the tide will certainly turn. The superior striker is Vanderaa but largely due to volume and not power. The Moldovan should cruise in this fight and hopefully gets the job done early on the mat. He pairs extremely heavy ground and pound with unorthodox chokes from top position. Alexander Romanov by Round One Submission
  • Nick: The line does feel a bit wide here, but in many ways it’s justified. While it’s true Vanderaa is coming off a solid win over Justin Tafa as a +150 underdog, stylistically this feels like a really tough spot. Vanderaa throws looping shots and he leaves himself open to counters. He does a good job pushing a pace and he throws fairly high volume, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. He may have a slight striking advantage in terms of technical ability here, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to lean on it for long. Romanov has been dominant so far in the UFC. He has won all three of his matchups, twice by first round submission. Romanov started to fade his last time out against Juan Espino but was ultimately gifted the decision win. He has a powerful base as a former Sumo wrestler. His striking is far from crisp, but he’s just dangerous enough to use it to create openings for takedowns. Vanderaa does have decent wrestling ability for a heavyweight, but I don’t really see him as being on Romanov’s level. The line has gotten out of hand, but Romanov is the clear play. Alexander Romanov by Round One KO
  • GB: Alexander Romanov by Round Two Submission

Main Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Chris Gutierrez -240 (DK $8900, FD $21) vs Felipe Colares +190 (DK $7300, FD $10)

  • Anthony: This should be a competitive fight at bantamweight here between Chris Gutierrez and Felipe Colares. I feel like the popular opinion this week is that Gutierrez steamrolls, but this should be much closer than this betting line indicates. Gutierrez is thus far undefeated in the UFC but has not had the most spectacular performances. There were rather suspect moments in both of his last fights, a win over Andre Ewell and a draw versus Cody Durden. He is a talented kickboxer who absolutely torches the lead leg of his opponents, but there are some glaring holes in Gutierrez’ overall game. He is at a significant grappling advantage and Colares has taken every UFC fight of his to the mat at least one. Betting on Colares is betting on the stronger chin and the better wrestler here. He also represents a great gym in Team Nogueira. I think Gutierrez gets a bit too reliant on the kicks and may have a few caught for easy takedowns here. He is the underdog for a reason, but I will make a small bet on Colares in this spot. Felipe Colares by Decision
  • Nick: We have a very fun bout scheduled here between two tough and aggressive bantamweights. Colares is coming off a chaotic decision win over Luke Sanders. He weathered an early storm from Sanders in that one, showing a sturdy chin and excellent durability until he was able to take over in the later rounds. Gutierrez is coming off an impressive win over Andre Ewell. In that fight he was able to show off an outstanding leg kick game to keep the lengthy Ewell at range. Gutierrez’s greatest strength is certainly his ability to throw devastating leg kicks. More than 50 percent of the strikes he’s thrown in the UFC are leg kicks and he’s shown he can utilize this strength against a wide range of opponents. Colares’ greatest strength is certainly his durability. He’s likely going to have a grappling advantage here as well, which is really his only true path to victory as Gutierrez is far more technically advanced as a striker. If Colares executes a grappling heavy attack, he’s certainly live to pull off this upset. However, he seems much more content to strike at this point in his career. I feel like the line should be tighter than it is here, but Gutierrez is the pick. I expect he relies on a kick heavy gameplan to pick Colares apart at range. Chris Gutierrez by Decision
  • GB: Chris Gutierrez by Decision

Sabina Mazo -190 (DK $8300, FD $15) vs Mariya Agapova +155 (DK $7900, FD $14)

  • Anthony: Here we have a women’s flyweight bout between Sabina Mazo and Mariya Agapova. This is excellent matchmaking as both fighters are exciting 24-year-old prospects with identical 9-2 records and similar frames. Mazo most recently took a loss up at 135 pounds in a fight where Alexis Davis out grappled her. She seemed rather inept in bottom position and I believe a strong flyweight like Agapova could put her into similar positions. Agapova suffered the first loss of her career as a -1400 favorite last August. It was a strange fight as Agapova fought well early, she just seemed to either gas out or intentionally dive as she rolled into bottom position. Regardless this feels like a spot she can bounce back against a rather one-dimensional striker. Mazo is talented but still rather raw in her development. I think Agapova will be the more improved of the two given her time spent training with Colby Covington and others at MMA Masters for this camp. She ultimately has the higher upside of these two in my opinion. Mariya Agapova by Decision
  • Nick: Here we have a fight between two flyweights that have seen their respective stocks plummet. Maria Agapova was a highly regarded prospect before she fell as a -1400 favorite against a fighter in Shana Dobson who has since been cut from the promotion. She came out firing in that spot, but her cardio seemed non-existent. She gassed extremely quickly in that fight, Dobson took advantage and put her out via TKO. Mazo is coming off an ugly loss to Alexis Davis as a large favorite, but Davis has since shown she’s still a fighter who should be respected. Mazo has decent footwork and she does a good job striking at range. She’s going to have a considerable technical advantage here over Agapova, but she’s going to need to be careful early as Agapova is most likely going to push the pace and try to swarm her early. While it wouldn’t shock me to see Agapova win this via early KO, it seems far more likely Mazo takes her damage and then weaponizes cardio as this fight wears on. I don’t expect to be heavily invested in either side, but Mazo’s high-volume striking style does have the potential to score well for DFS. Sabina Mazo by Decision
  • GB: Mariya Agapova by Decision

Matheus Nicolau -200 (DK $8500, FD $17) vs Tim Elliott +160 (DK $7700, FD $13)

  • Anthony: Next on the card is a flyweight fight between Matheus Nicolau and Tim Elliott. This makes three underdog plays in a row for me. This is more so a bet on head coach James Krause than it is one on Elliott. The team at Glory MMA and Fitness has been putting on excellent fights largely due to the work of Elliott’s head cornerman Krause. In the quiet UFC Apex Elliott should be able to take direction, fight his gameplan and win a third consecutive fight. He weaponizes his excellent cardio by striking with heavy pressure or wrestling his opponents, as he did successfully in his last win. Nicolau has done nothing to warrant odds this wide. He outworked Manel Kape in his UFC debut but all media scores disagreed with his split decision victory. This is an equally competitive fight and I do not see Elliott being the one who tires here. Tim Elliott by Decision
  • Nick: This is easily one of the better fights on this entire card. Nicolau is on the rise as a prospect at 125. Elliott continues to show improvements in spite of his age, and he remains a tough out for almost anyone in this division. Nicolau is coming off a hard fought and razor thin split decision win over Manel Kape. He wasn’t overly impressive in that victory, but he did just enough to score a win over a highly regarded fighter in Kape. Nicolau is an underrated striker. He does a good job moving in and out of the range of his opponents. He’s a decent grappler as well, especially defensively. However, he’s most content just standing and trading strikes. Elliott’s style is rough around the edges, but he’s effective pretty much everywhere. He is coming off back-to-back decision wins over Jordan Espinosa and Ryan Benoit. Tim Elliott is known for his hyper aggressive and unconventional style. While this over-aggressiveness has seemingly plagued him for the majority of his career, he has recently shown improvements. His move back to Glory MMA to train under James Krause has left him much more composed in the octagon. Krause is one of the more vocal head coaches in the UFC and the boost he gives a reckless fighter like Elliott is dramatic. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if Nicolau manages to pick Elliott apart at range here. However, Elliott is likely to be the aggressor and I feel Krause can be an X-factor as this fight will take place in front of just the small Apex crowd. Certainly it is one of the tougher fights on the card to pick, but I’m siding with the underdog. Tim Elliott by Decision
  • GB: Tim Elliott by Round Two KO

Randy Brown -285 (DK $8800, FD $19) vs Jared Gooden +225 (DK $7400, FD $12)

  • Anthony: The co-main event should be a fun one at welterweight as Randy Brown takes on Jared Gooden. Brown is coming off an extremely impressive win against Alex Oliveira where he won by submission in round one. His only career losses have come at the UFC level against extremely tough competition. He has heavy hands for this division and is just as disciplined grappling as he is in the stand up. While I could see Brown winning this fight in a variety of ways, the path of least resistance is likely grappling with Gooden. We have seen Gooden put on excellent performances striking, including a knockout of Niklas Stolze his last time out. Brown should be able to land shots and defend well enough standing before finding his takedown. I am rather confident in this pick but won’t be betting too heavy simply due to the odds and volatility of Gooden. He came in three pounds heavy on the scales yesterday. Brown should be able to out volume Gooden, push the pace and win convincingly here. Randy Brown by Round Three KO
  • Nick: Randy Brown is extremely well-rounded with KO power and underrated BJJ ability. Gooden is fairly technical on the feet, but we haven’t really seen him tested extensively. He has decent head movement and footwork but he doesn’t seem as powerful as he’s been widely touted to be. While he has shown knockout power, it has mostly been on display against a very low level of competition. If this fight stays standing Gooden could be live for a Knockout upset. However, Brown seems to be on another level. He takes far less damage and he fights much looser and free-flowing. I expect him to dance around Gooden here as he picks him apart at range. Additionally, he’s the better grappler if he needs to change things up at any point. Randy Brown by Decision
  • GB: Randy Brown by Decision

Mackenzie Dern -200 (DK $8200, FD $20) vs Marina Rodriguez +160 (DK $8000, FD $18)

  • Anthony: The main event is a five round women’s strawweight bout between Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez. These are two rising stars in the division looking to work their way into title contention. It is also a classic grappler vs. striker matchup. Dern is one of the best grapplers in the promotion. She is a no-gi jiu jitsu world champion and seemingly can outclass any women she faces on the mat. She is a bit undersized but certainly has a lot of strength. Rodriguez is a talented striker who has landed just shy of five strikes per minute in her UFC career. Her boxing and muay thai are at an elite level and she had shown rare knockout power for this weight class. She has fast hands, power and the cardio to stay active for a full five rounds. There is certainly a lot to like on both sides here but I think my pick is the grappler. Over twenty-five minutes this fight will certainly hit the mat at some point and I doubt l this purple belt survives long underneath Dern. Both are viable DFS options but Rodriguez has yet to score higher than 100 points on DraftKings. These odds have widened all week and a -200 line is about the highest I’d actually be comfortable backing Dern. Mackenzie Dern by Round Three Submission
  • Nick: This is a high-level women’s match-up between two of the division’s more interesting contenders. Rodriguez is a powerful muay thai striker. She’s found success against a high level of competition, striking effectively both at range and in the clinch. Dern is one of the more decorated BJJ blackbelts in MMA. She has a nearly flawless ground game as a former top ranked IBJJF competitor. She is an ADCC and no-gi jiu jitsu world champion, and a brutal matchup for any opponent when the fight hits the mat. When this fight is standing, Rodriguez is going to have a considerable advantage. She is excellent in the clinch, and she lands more than five significant strikes per minute. Dern has shown dramatic improvements in her striking over her last few fights. She’s no longer the one-dimensional fighter she was when entering the UFC, but she’s definitely going to try to take this fight to the mat. I could see this fight going either way and there’s really no outcome in this spot that would surprise me. I think Dern gets it done here. She is the far better grappler and I can’t imagine she’ll let this fight stay on the feet for a full five rounds. Rodriguez will look good when this fight is standing but she has a mediocre 62 percent takedown defense. This should be a fun one for however long it lasts, but I’m siding with the favorite. Mackenzie Dern by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Mackenzie Dern by Round Two Submission

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice

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