Hello Playmakers! PGA DFS Golf is back with the PGA Tour’s 2021 3M OPEN at TPC Twin Cities this weekend. DPA Staff Colin Lynch here and excited to bring you my breakdown of this event!
The tournament features a 156 player field consisting of PGA Tour and European Tour regulars. These players will tee off against one another starting Thursday 7:50AM EDT at TPC Twin Cities located in Blaine, Minnesota. The course will play as a par 71 measuring over 7,400 yards and will feature Bentgrass greens. The Top 65 and tied will make the cut for the weekend after the completion of 36 holes.
Top Tier Targets
Dustin Johnson ($11,300)
DJ is coming off a Top 10 (8th) finish last week at The Open Championship. He’s made four straight cuts on tour, highlighted by four consecutive Top 25 finishes (8th, 25th, 19th, 10th). DJ is a bomber that ranks Top 10 in the field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained ball striking, and strokes gained tee to green. DJ has four straight Top 30 finishes (25th, 13th, 20th, 28th) in starts coming off Majors. He ranks Top 15 in the field in strokes gained on approach and Top 5 in birdie or better percentage. DJ is the class of the field this week and he’s quietly been trending in the right direction.
Tony Finau ($10,700)
Tony finally rebounded with a Top 15 finish at The Open Championship. Finau is an elite ball striker that is one of the longest off the tee in the field. He’s made ten of his last fifteen cuts on tour, highlighted by nine Top 20 finishes. Finau ranks Top 10 in the field in strokes gained on approach and Top 20 in strokes gained off the tee. Tony also ranks Top 5 in birdie or better percentage. In two career starts, Finau has back to back Top 25 finishes at this event, highlighted by a 3rd place finish last year (3rd, 23rd).
Cameron Tringale ($9,500)
Tringale is coming off a 26th place finish at The Open Championship. His recent form has been as solid as it gets and he’s quietly having the best and most consistent golf season of his career. Tringale has made eleven of his last fifteen cuts on tour and all eleven have resulted in Top 35 finishes (26th, 14th, 26th, 32nd, 3rd, 9th, 13th, 31st, 26th, 7th, 17th). He’s one of the few golfers in the field that can gain strokes in all facets of his game. Tringale ranks Top 20 in the field in strokes gained on approach and ball striking. He also ranks Top 10 in birdie or better percentage and strokes gained putting. Tringale is a perfect 2/2 in made cuts here, highlighted by a 3rd place finish last year (3rd, 42nd).
Middle Tier Targets
Patton Kizzire ($8,600)
Patton is coming off back to back Top 25 finishes on tour (11th, 25th). He’s quietly made ten of his last fifteen cuts on tour, highlighted by five Top 25 finishes, including four Top eleven finishes (11th, 3rd, 3rd, 9th). Kizzire is known to get red hot with his irons and putter and he makes a ton of birdies. Patton ranks first in the field in birdie or better percentage, he also ranks Top 25 in the field in strokes gained on approach, and Top 10 in strokes gained putting. Kizzire is a perfect 2/2 in made cuts at this event (46th, 34th).
Hank Lebioda ($7,900)
Leboida is a talented young golfer that is coming off three consecutive Top 10 finishes (8th, 4th, 5th). Hank has been in solid form with finishes of 8th, 4th, 5th, 31st, 17th, 51st, 13th in his last seven starts, including five Top 20’s. He’s made seven consecutive cuts on tour and has gained strokes tee to green in all seven events. Leboida ranks Top 25 in the field in strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained ball striking, and strokes gained on approach.
Doug Ghim ($7,900)
Ghim is in solid current form coming off a Top 20 finish (18th) at The John Deere Classic. Ghim ranks Top 10 in the field in strokes gained tee to green and ball striking. He also ranks Top 5 in approach and Top 20 in strokes gained total. Ghim made his debut at this event last year and posted a Top 20 finish (18th).
Value Tier Targets
Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500)
Vegas comes into the 3M Open in great form coming off a Top 15 (11th) finish at The John Deere Classic. He’s quietly made thirteen of his last fifteen cuts on tour, including eight straight cuts. Jhonattan has three Top 15 finishes in his last five events. Vegas ranks number one in the field in strokes gained off the tee. He also ranks Top 25 in strokes gained on approach and Top 10 in birdie or better percentage. Vegas has gained strokes on approach in six of his last eight events. He missed the cut on the number in his debut last year.
Kyle Stanley ($7,300)
Stanley is coming off back to back 41st place finishes in his last two starts. He’s made seven consectuive cuts on tour and offers great cut making equity at this price point. Stanley ranks Top 10 in the field in strokes gained ball striking and strokes gained on approach. He also ranks Top 25 in strokes gained off the tee and he made the cut here in his debut, highlighted by a Top 35 finish (32nd).
Bubba Watson ($9,100)
Keegan Bradley ($8,800)
Maverick McNealy ($8,400)
Lanto Griffin ($7,700)
Mito Pereira ($7,600)
Adam Schenk ($7,400)
Beau Hossler ($7,300)
Pat Perez ($7,100)
Brice Garnett ($6,700)
Satoshi Kodaira ($6,500)
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Welcome back Playmakers! This week the series makes it stop in the New England area for the Foxwoods 301 at Loudon, NH. This is one of the short tracks on the schedule. It’s basically flat and requires drivers to be good with the brake pedal for 301 laps. This is one of the few times the series races on a concrete track as opposed to asphalt or both concrete/asphalt surfaces on the same track. This should be an interesting race, it’s tough to trust any deep punts due to track size. The leader begins lapping cars in the back of the pack within 30 laps. Once a driver starts going down laps it caps their ceiling and limits the points the can score without some extremely good luck in their favor. So be careful when building, also this race is only 301 laps on a 1 mile track. It’s one of the short races on the schedule. So there’s a little less Dominator points available than say a 400 or 500 lap race. Here’s a look at this week’s playlist. Starting with Dominators, a few cash game options, and Place Differential plays.
Kyle Busch | 1st | 10,900DK | 12,500FD |
Kyle has been driving at a high level for a few weeks now. NH is historically not one of his best tracks. But he’s definitely worth having exposure to. I personally like Truex more and will be targeting him. But I will have a little KB18 exposure. I just don’t think he dominates this race. He should be near the front of the pack most of the day. But, I think Truex gets him.
Martin Truex Jr. | 2nd | 9,100DK | 13,500 FD |
Last week Truex overcame coming from the back 3 speedster times to finish in the top5. He had to drop to the back to start, then had damage which made them pit, then had a penalty on pit road separate to those issues and had to come through the field again. He passed 84 cars on the lead lap from positioning last week. A truly awesome performance. I think this team is hitting their stride again and it’s only a matter of time before they win another race this year. I think this could be a spot for him to do just that. Over his last 7 races here his worst finish is 6th place. He should be battling for a top5 finish with the possibility of winning this one. I want exposure and I want to build around Truex in a few lines this week.
Chase Elliott | 3rd | 9,800DK | 12,000FD |
Chase doesn’t have a very good past at this track. But I think he could be a really solid gpp option for Dominator. He is not a priority by any means. Just merely an option as someone who may grab the lead with a good restart and a decent pit stall which could help him jump a couple guys on pit road as well.
Denny Hamlin | 6th | 10,000DK | 13,000FD |
This is one of Denny’s best tracks. He is usually very good here. 4 out of his last 8 trips to NH have seen Hamlin finish in the top2. 1 win and 3 times runner-up. May go overlooked a bit too because he hasn’t been elite this season at any point so far. He still hasn’t won a race this year which is very unlike Hamlin and the #11 team. They were one of the best teams all last season. At some point you gotta figure they get it all to click in the same race and contend for a win. This is one of their better chances left before the playoffs.
Alex Bowman | 5th | 8,200DK | 10,000FD |
Ryan Blaney | 7th | 8,700DK | 10,500FD |
Wildcards with Cash Game Appeal
Chris Bell | 9th | 7,700DK | 9,000FD |
Tyler Reddick | 8th | 6,800DK | 8,500FD |
Matt DiBennedetto | 14th | 7,500DK | 8,000FD |
(All 3 don’t have much place diff potential but could work great for cash games or just paying off their mid-range price tag)
Aric Almirola | 22nd | 8,400DK | 7,500FD |
Solid spot for Almirola. This has proven to be one of his best tracks. Hes finished in the top11 the last 3 times here. He’s led laps in each of those races as well. I don’t expect that here, he starts lower than on those occasions, but he has top10 potential. I would be surprised if he’s not at least in the top15 at race end. Very good play on FD where he’s a bit underpriced in my eyes.
William Byron | 16th | 10,600DK | 11,000FD |
This is pretty pricey. Pretty good potential here to get a good score. But I do think you can find those points elsewhere so he’s not a priority for me because of the pricing. I do like the play and will work him into a few lines in multi-entry. I’m interested in what his ownership might be for this one. Who’s willing to pay this price? It probably keeps his ownership down a bit.
Daniel Suarez | 31st | 8,900DK | 5,700FD |
This is a lock on FD. Too high potential for that price tag. He’s very expensive on DK. I still like him because this should be a top20 or so spot for Suarez and team Trackhouse but it’s a steep price to pay for it. Not a priority on DK. A great play on FD. This is what happens when DK waits to put out its pricing for the race and FD opens its contests for line building earlier in the week.
Joey Logano | 15th | 9,500DK | 10,800FD |
Somewhat overpriced on FD. Decent value on DK. Much like Byron (10,600DK) Logano has similar potential for 1100 cheaper. This is a spot where I could see team Penske using a strategy call that goes their way to get to the front late in the race.
Ryan Newman | 28th | 7,200DK | 5,500FD |
Newman was underpriced last week and he didn’t really have a great week in terms of finishing spot, but he did have 13 fast laps last week. That was unexpected. New Hampshire brings a race track Newman has done well on in the past. Having 13 fast laps last week increases his appeal for me this week with this track being suited to his style. He is expensive on DK compared to FD. Worth a play on both sites. The real question here is can he keep it together for the whole race? This one being only 301 laps as opposed to the 400 laps they used to run here I like his chances a bit more. He should be one of the highest owned drivers on FD and more than likely DK as well.
R. Stenhouse | 29th | 7,100DK | 6,000FD |
He’s as unpredictable as they come in the series. I’m not a huge fan but I could see him having a good score based on maybe 10 or so place diff potential. He’s very tough to trust though so limit exposure.
Ryan Preece | 25th | 7,800DK | 4,000FD |
This is expensive for Preece on DK. I don’t feel comfortable having much exposure. However on FD this is a very nice price for a gpp play. If you do use him on DK it’s a gpp only play. I think the price scares people off him.
Cole Custer | 21st | 6,300DK | 6,200FD |
Good price on DK. I think he can hold strong here and pay off this price. He’s more of a gpp play. Custer cracked the top10 here last year. I don’t think they are in form to be able to repeat that, but he had a chance to pay off his cheap price
Remember, NASCAR is a CRAZY DFS sport. Scores and your place in the money can change in a heartbeat. There are so many variables that no one can really predict. Cars can be finicky, and some will crash which can ruin your day. You need your full team to be on its game if you want to cash, and you may need a little luck. This is not a one man sport when you pick a player like other styles of DFS. There’s 30-50 guys behind the scenes who all have a hand in building the car, or developing a game plan. Sometimes it only takes one mistake by one of those guys for a driver to have a bad race. That narrative does not apply to other forms of DFS, so be cautious when building your lines, but most of all, have fun!
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