The Weekly Wedge: 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

147

DPA daily fantasy golf advice is back, and this week we are gearing up for the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Following a strong finish to our NFL season – check out Oaktown’s success story where our guy managed accumulate nearly $5K off of satellites  alone on Super Bowl Sunday. We’re ready, once again, to help give you a little bit of insight on how to navigate the sometimes-tricky DFS Golf scene.

This week’s tournament is a little bit different than most, as it is being played on three separate courses and offers a 54-hole cut. This definitely changes the strategy up a little bit. In situations like these, its essential to make sure that you have some studs in your lineup to ensure you get the most out of those three days that everyone will play. This also implies that you need to pay attention to who is playing what course and on what day. With the amount of extremely-low priced options in the field this week, there is certainly going to be a ton of chalk in your value picks. So be make sure you try to avoid the highly-owned players when playing GPP’s.

Course Overview

As I previously mentioned, this tournament is going to be played on three separate courses– Pebble Beach (Main Course), Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula. All three courses play just under 7,000 yards, so none of them are terribly long, and two out of three of the courses are par-72’s with the exception being Monterey Peninsula. Another constant among the three are the small and tough Poa Annua greens. This is really going to force players to not only putt well, but also give themselves better opportunities off the tee by hitting the fairways in regulation.

With the host course, Pebble Beach, being featured twice, players will be forced to take advantage of the four par-5’s at their disposal. These holes will offer bombers like Dustin Johnson plenty of opportunity to get the ball on the green for a nice eagle-putt and hopefully some positive scoring. Another big factor in this weekend’s tournament is going to be the winds off of the infamous Pebble Beach coastline. Although it offers a beautiful landscape, PB certainly does not help the players when the open ocean is producing gusty winds. Although the weather is shaping up to be wonderful in mid-California, make sure you continue to monitor the weather and check to see which players are playing which courses.

The players will be expected navigate the historic Pebble Beach coastline

Beginner’s Glossary

  • Scrambling – any shot from less 50 yards followed by one putt that produces a score of par or better
  • Strokes Gained: Putting – measures the amount of strokes gained from shots on the putting surface
  • Par-5 Scoring – measures the amount of strokes gained on par-5 holes
  • DK Scoring – the amount of DraftKings points a player produces per tournament
  • Ownership Percentage measures the amount of Draftkings players fielding a specific player in a given contest

MORTAL LOCK | Rory McIlroy |  $11,100

We haven’t seen a lot of Rory this year, but I love him this weekend making his 2018 PGA Tour debut. Although we have yet to see him play over here in the States, Rory has been ripping up the EURO Tour. Averaging 106.2 DK FPPG over his last three tournaments and over 120 FPPG in 2018, he is in great form, and I would not doubt it at all if he exploded onto the scene in this spot at Pebble Beach. Regardless of the heat check, I’m more into his ownership compared to some of the other studs that exceed the dreaded $10,000 mark. DJ is going to be the book definition of chalk this week, and as such, you can expect him to be a lock in cash lineups. It is also for that reason that I am going elsewhere with that extra $1,000 in my tournaments. Players like Spieth, Day, and Mickelson are among others that will likely run highly-owned. Although this is McIlroy’s first time playing in this tournament, we already know he has the skills to compete on any course. For me, McIlroy’s hot-streak and lowered-ownership are just too good for me to pass up on.

Rory McIlroy looks to build on a strong EURO Tour

VALUE PLAY | Chris Kirk |  $7,100

Again, my strategy here is to avoid some of the higher-owned value plays in the high-$6,000 range and the $7,000 range. Coming off of a T11 finish last week, Chris Kirk is a guy that I think has a great chance to hit value here. In terms of key stats; he ranks 25th on the tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 21st in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, and has gained 16 strokes on the field at Pebble Beach. Over his last 12 rounds, Kirk has positioned himself in 11th for Strokes Gained on Par-5’s and 3rd in Scrambling. At such a low price, he is a great value play that checks all the boxes you’re looking for going into a tournament. Aside from terrific form currently, Chris Kirk has found some success at Pebble Beach in the past – making 4/6 cuts and finishing 2nd in 2013. All stats and convictions aside, its safe to say that I’ll be overweight on Chris Kirk this week.

Chris Kirk is the DPA’s Value Play of the Week

FADE | Jon Rahm | $11,400

As well as Rahm has played at PB in the beginning of the year, its clear that he has been regressing as of late. With that said, it’s tough to see myself playing him on his fourth straight start. I’ve been wrong about Rahm before, but the fatigue factor has to set in at some point for the young CareerBuilder Champion. If I’m playing cash, I’d rather just spend the extra $300 for DJ, or look down to someone like Jason Day or Jordan Spieth. If I’m playing a GPP, I’m definitely looking to pay down to get as balanced of a line as I possibly can. With so many other studs and value plays this week, I just don’t see a spot where I would be happy fitting in Jon Rahm.

Get em next time, Jon!

Big Ant is the DPA’s resident PGA expert. He contributes his preferred plays for the use of DPA articles as well as contests in which he participates himself. Big Ant’s plays are exclusively based on his own opinion, and are subject to change at anytime without discretion or consent of any kind.